Risk Baked Into ADP: QBs (Fantasy Football)

Welcome to the third installment of the Risk Bakery series. If you just stumbled upon this article without reading the previous two, what we are doing here is looking at certain players who are generally viewed as risky options that should be avoided in drafts, and discuss if their ADP is low enough to compensate for that risk and maybe even consider them value picks.

We have already covered running backs and wide receivers. Now it’s time to take a look at some signal callers. Every season there are some quarterbacks nobody wants to draft. This lowers their ADP to a point where they become a risk-free investment. A great example from last season is Dak Prescott. After missing a bunch of games again due to injury and disappointing fantasy managers (and Cowboys fans) in 2022, he was considered a risky bet. That’s why he was correctly being drafted in late-round QB territory as the QB10. Fantasy managers who took him didn’t invest much and ended up having the QB3. Not bad at all. 

The oven is ready now and it smells like deliciously baked risk. Let’s see what’s inside. You might find some good reasons to wait for a late-round QB this draft season. Also, don’t forget to get The Fantasy Footballers Ultimate Draft Kit, where Andy, Mike, and Jason share what they think about every player’s risk. 

Kirk Cousins – Atlanta Falcons

 

Over the past few years, Kirk Cousins has been the perfect late-round quarterback: a trustworthy pocket passer with a decent volume and a cheap ADP. Every time you missed the QB you wanted in a draft, you knew Captain Kirk would be waiting for you in the final rounds. Before tearing his Achilles last season, he had outperformed his ADP every season since 2020. But he is now considered a risky option by most drafters because there are some question marks around him. He worked great in Minnesota, but will he be as good and trustworthy on a new team? Will he be completely healed from his injury to start the season? The Falcons drafted Michael Penix Jr. Did they do it because they have some concerns about Cousins’ health? These are all fair questions but guess what? That’s exactly why he is being drafted as the QB18. He hasn’t been this cheap since 2021 when he finished as the QB11. He won’t have Justin Jefferson in Atlanta but the combination of Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson might be even better for his fantasy outlook. Kirk Cousins’ ceiling might not be a top-five finish but he has shown the world he can be a top-10 QB. At his current price, he’s an absolute bargain.

Aaron Rodgers – New York Jets

 

Aaron Rogers’ ADP is almost a déjà vu from last season, which makes sense since he only played four snaps with the New York Jets before he tore his Achilles tendon. So everything is just like the first time: the excitement, the uncertainty, the floor, the ceiling. It’s still a blank canvas where almost anything could happen. On one hand, he has Garrett Wilson, one of the NFL’s best young wide receivers. He also has a great pass-catching back in Breece Hall and some other interesting talents in the offense, including his good friend Allen Lazard and the exciting additions of Mike Williams and rookie WR Malachi Corley. One could argue he even has better weapons than what he had during his last years in Green Bay. On the other hand, he is 40 years old now, and that can be tough, even for a future Hall of Famer. Another important risk factor for his fantasy performance is how good the Jets’ offense is. He won’t need to be a gun-slinging hero and score a lot of touchdowns to win games. So yes, there are reasons to be concerned, but all of them are pretty well cooked into his QB19 ADP. If you still believe in him, you can give him a chance almost for free.

Jayden Daniels – Washington Commanders

 

Rookies are risky. There’s no doubt about that. Even superhero prospects like Trevor Lawrence turn into mortal men once they enter the NFL. Some become superstars eventually, but the great majority of them have a modest rookie season. Despite the inherent risks of a rookie, Jayden Daniels can make a big impact from year one simply because of his rushing prowess. Last season, Anthony Richardson was on pace to rush for 742.3 yards and score 392.13 fantasy points, which would have made him finish as the QB2. Of course, I’m extrapolating only three games to illustrate my point, but that’s the pace he had in his brief rookie season. Well, Jayden Daniels’ rushing potential is even bigger than Anthony Richardson’s. Daniels ran for 1,134 yards during his last season at LSU. That’s almost twice as many as what Richardson achieved in his best year at college. 

Now, I know LSU is not the same as Florida, and it certainly is not the same as playing in the NFL for the Washington Commanders. There are some questions about the wide receivers in Washington. They have a lot of talent on paper, but last season they were all a disappointment. However, even Sam Howell managed to stay as the QB6 for some weeks around the middle of the season with this team. The Commanders also have a new OC (Kliff Kingsbury) who has already been successful in exploiting the abilities of a mobile rookie quarterback called Kyler Murray. I’m not saying we should raise Jayden Daniels’ ADP, but we should all take advantage of it because any risk he might have is completely baked here and he could easily sneak into the top 12.

Baker Mayfield – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

The disrespect for Baker Mayfield is wild. After having the most attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns, and fantasy points ever in his whole career and finishing as the QB10, he is now being drafted as a low-end QB2, which means he is basically being undrafted in 1QB leagues. This year he will have his most important weapons back, so where’s the risk? Well, he wasn’t the most consistent QB. He had his ups and downs depending on the matchup, which lowered his average scoring to 16.7 and made him finish as the QB20 in points per game. But at this price, there’s really no risk at all. You can easily pick him up as a matchup-dependent backup QB or as an insurance policy if you draft a riskier QB1 in earlier rounds.

Justin Herbert – Los Angeles Chargers

 

Last season, Justin Herbert was drafted as a top-five quarterback. Now his ADP is outside of the top 12. There are a lot of question marks around him after a disappointing fantasy season. All of his top weapons are gone: Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, and Gerald Everett. Now he will play under a new coaching staff commanded by Jim Harbaugh, who has historically been famous for his successful run-first mentality. He coached the 49ers from 2011 to 2014 and they never finished higher than 29th in pass attempts. So yes, there are reasons to worry about Justin Herbert, but he is still a remarkably talented player with a great arm. We shouldn’t forget that. Jim Harbaugh shouldn’t forget that either. We’ve all seen Herbert is capable of a top-five finish and he has been outside the top 12 only once (last season). At his current price, Herbert’s risk is completely baked into his ADP and I’d be more than willing to give him a shot.

Deshaun Watson – Cleveland Browns

 

In each of his two seasons as a Cleveland Brown, Deshaun Watson has only played six games. He was suspended for the majority of the 2022 season, and when he returned he was definitely rusty. Then in 2023, he injured his throwing shoulder. His performance during those six games was far from great, averaging only 6.5 yards per pass attempt. But it feels like we haven’t had a proper chance to see what he can do on this team. Has he lost the mojo he had during his Houston days, where he repeatedly finished as the QB5? Maybe. Should we be cautious about a player in this situation? Definitely. Besides, there’s another awkward yet valid reason why a lot of people don’t want to draft him: the shameful conduct that got him suspended in 2022 and earned him the “Voldemort” nickname. But let’s be honest: at QB21 both his risk AND the stench of his bad deeds are fairly baked into his ADP. Get him with your last pick as a lottery ticket, in case he still can play as he did during his first three years in the NFL.