Revisiting Jalen McMillan’s College Scouting Report

Bucs rookie receiver Jalen McMillan is now 16 weeks into his professional career, and he already has experienced some significant highs and some relative lows. After his five-catch, 57-yard performance on Sunday night he is now up to 27 catches for 336 yards and five touchdowns while averaging 13.6 yards per catch.

He already has the most touchdown receptions for a rookie receiver in Tampa Bay since Mike Evans in 2014. McMillan can also capture the top spot since Evans’ debut in receptions and yards with just six grabs and 190 more yards. Among rookie receivers, he is now ninth in targets (47), and catches, 11th in yards and tied for third in touchdown catches. Keep in mind he was the 13th receiver taken in this year’s draft.

Bucs WR Jalen McMillan – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

By any reasonable measure, McMillan has had a solid rookie campaign. But for a while it didn’t look like he was going to meet the lofty expectations that were thrust upon him during training camp. In recent weeks though, the young pass catcher is coming into his own.

Since the bye week, McMillan is averaging 3.4 catches for 45.4 yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game while averaging 1.49 yards per route run. Given that he is starting to break out I thought it might be fun to look at the scouting report I had for him coming out of college and compare the player I thought he could be to the player he is developing into.

Jalen McMillan’s Strengths

I noted that, while he was not a speed merchant, Jalen McMillan could win downfield due to his smooth movements as a route runner. I also described him as a plus against zone defense with his ability to find holes and make himself available to his quarterback. What made McMillan most dangerous was his quick cutting ability that helped him create easy separation.

This year, among Bucs receivers with at least 50 routes, McMillan is tied with Chris Godwin for the highest average separation on the team at 3.2 yards. And his route running has not only aided him in winning against zone, but also in finding openings against man coverage. Three of his five touchdowns have come against man coverage and despite having only about half as many routes against man coverage his yardage is about even when comparing the two.

Jalen McMillan All-22 vs the Chargers.

🔥23.1% targets share
🔥86.7% route rate
🔥23.1% target per route
🔥12.7 ADOT pic.twitter.com/pf6OjnCzX2

— Bruce Matson (@MetricScout) December 19, 2024

Jalen McMillan’s Weaknesses

Bucs WR Jalen McMillan – Photo by: USA Today

The part of his game that I was most concerned with was Jalen McMillan’s ability to catch the ball in tough circumstances. While he had a very good 71% catch rate his final year in Washington, the two previous years were 66 and 67%, respectively.

But most concerning was McMillan’s lack of production in contested catch situations. Across his entire collegiate career, he only caught five of 25 opportunities in contested situations. That’s a 25% success rate. So, when others compared McMillan to his new teammate, saying he could be the “next” Chris Godwin, I was quite skeptical. Godwin is one of the great catch-on-collision receivers of our time with a career 59.4% success rate in such situations.

After 15 games, this looks to still be an area of opportunity for McMillan. He has just one contested catch in nine opportunities. His lone catch in those situations came last week against the Chargers and he had two high-profile misses against Dallas. The most crucial was this dime from quarterback Baker Mayfield that McMillan allowed to be ripped from his arms.

Cowboys CB Jourdan Lewis makes an incredible INT & steals a TD from Bucs WR Jalen McMillan.

“IT’S MCMILLAN, HEEEEEE… GOT IT? NO, PICKED OFF BY LEWIS! LEWIS FOUGHT HIM FOR IT AND TOOK IT AWAY!” – Mike Tirico

“That’s a miracle that Jourdan Lewis got that!” – Cris Collinsworth #NFL #SNF

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— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing.bsky.social) December 22, 2024 at 11:24 PM

If he is ever going to be considered a high-end receiver in the NFL this is something he will have to improve upon.

Bucs WR Jalen McMillan – Photo courtesy of Washington

I also worried about his ability to create after the catch. While McMillan had respectable YAC numbers, I was more skeptical of his ability to translate that part of his game to the NFL level. This season he is averaging 3.8 yards after catch per reception, which ranks 2nd among Bucs receivers and tied for 48th out of 84 qualifying receivers in the NFL.

It hasn’t been a strength of his game, but hasn’t been the weakness I worried it might be. As a proxy I looked at how effective he was on screen plays, determining it wasn’t something he excelled at. So far in his professional career he has been targeted on four screens, catching three for just nine yards.

While motion is popular throughout the NFL, I argued it would be especially necessary for McMillan to be successful. As a less-than physical receiver it could help him avoid jams at the line of scrimmage and give him easy access to the field. Well, according to NFL Pro, JMac is practically tied with Sterling Shepard for the highest motion rate of the Bucs receiving group.

Moving Forward

Bucs WR Jalen McMillan – Photo by: Jeffrey Jones/PR

Jalen McMillan can be successful as he continues to hone and perfect his route running. With his current skillset he can be a perfectly fine complimentary piece in a passing attack.

Zay Jones has never been a strong receiver through contact with similar measurables. But Jones has never topped one thousand yards or 1.5 yards per route run.

If the Bucs’ young receiver is to surpass this comparable ceiling he is going to have to become a more physical player. Until then he will continue to be a promising lower tier option for the Bucs and not the replacement for Mike Evans or Chris Godwin the team will need in coming years.

But it has been nice to see him start to live up to the player I thought he could be eight months ago.