Respect Your Elders: Cooper Kupp (Fantasy Football)

Welcome back to this series of articles highlighting some older players who are being disrespected because of their age despite being very valuable for fantasy football.

In the first two articles, we covered Raheem Mostert and Tyler Lockett as gems to be snatched in later rounds. This time we’ll climb a little higher in the draft board to discuss a player who many drafters have avoided since the rise of 2023 rookie sensation Puka Nacua. Of course, I’m talking about Cooper Kupp. Join me in this quest to find out if ageists are right to fade him into almost WR3 territory.

If you want to check out what Andy, Mike, and Jason think of Cooper Kupp and in what tier they have him ranked among the rest of WRs, don’t forget to get the UDK+.

How Is He Being Disrespected?

Cooper Kupp is 31 years old and the season in which he finished as the WR1 feels like a long-forgotten dream from his youth. But that happened only two years ago! In 2021, Kupp dominated the league and scored more fantasy points than any other WR. Then in 2022, he didn’t finish as high in total points due to injury but still managed to be the WR1 in fantasy points per game. 

However, everything changed in 2023. Or at least that’s what the fantasy football community seems to think. Kupp is being drafted as the WR23 at the 42nd overall draft position. Yes, low-end WR2 territory doesn’t seem like a disrespectful ADP at first glance, but that’s 29 spots after Puka Nacua. In my opinion, Kupp is going at least a round later than he should and he could even provide WR1 upside. Let me try to convince you.

A Not-So-Respectable 2023 Season

Cooper Kupp had a complicated season. He missed the first four weeks and that allowed Puka Nacua to shine and steal the show. But did he steal a significant volume from Kupp?

When Kupp came back, he started strong in Weeks 5 and 6 with 15.8 and 24.3 fantasy points. Then he plummeted for several weeks but he maintained a very healthy target share most of the time. He received fewer than seven targets in only three weeks during the whole season. The problem is he missed a lot of catches, especially some costly ones in the end zone. But on those games in which he managed to catch the ball, he racked up yards like crazy and delivered for fantasy.

He finished as the WR41, which sounds awful but he wasn’t that bad on a per-game basis, finishing 27th in fantasy points per game. That’s not so far from his current ADP. So if this was a bad season for him and his fantasy finish (in points per game) was around where he’s being drafted now, there’s realistic hope for a bounce-back season.

Possible Signs of Decay

Injuries are Kupp’s main problem. Will we see him play a full season again? It’s hard to believe but his injuries have nothing to do with age. When he is on the field, he dominates and looks electric. Very few players run routes the way Cooper Kupp does when he is healthy.

To evaluate if his ability to earn targets has decreased over time, let’s first take a look at his routes and target rate over the years, considering only routes run per game to take out the games he missed.

Yes, in 2023 he ran his fewest routes per game since 2018 and his target rate was much lower than his previous two seasons, even though he was participating in almost the same percentage of routes. 

Does this mean he suddenly became a less appealing target for Matthew Stafford now that Puka Nacua joined the team? Not at all. Despite this decrease in target rate, Cooper Kupp led his team in target separation with 1.96 yards, which was significantly better than Puka’s 1.75. Both of them are amazing wide receivers, but at this moment, Kupp has shown that he is the better of the two at separating from defenders to earn targets. Last season, he even had a 62-yard play in which he achieved a 17-yard separation from the nearest defender. Despite his age, this guy still has an insane amount of juice left in the tank.

Matthew Stafford & Cooper Kupp (62-yd TD)

Kupp had 17.0 yards of separation from the nearest defender, the 2nd-most separation on a completion over 50 yards of air distance in the NGS era (since 2016).

Completion Probability: 73.6%

Powered by @awscloud pic.twitter.com/m1OdXcqqye

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 17, 2023

So the targets were there, but Kupp’s main issue in 2023 was his catch rate. He had extremely bad luck catching the ball, especially in the middle of the season. From Weeks 7 to 9, he caught only eight out of 24 passes, but he kept being targeted and eventually, things got better in his last four games. He even eclipsed 20 fantasy points twice during that span. Ending the season on a more decent note is a very good omen for 2024.

What to Expect in 2024

In 2023, Cooper Kupp had a very healthy 25.6% target share. It might have not been as elite as the 31.7% he had back in 2021 when he finished as the WR1, but the show has definitely not been stolen from him. Both he and Puka Nacua will get their fair share of targets, as has happened in L.A. since Sean McVay took the reins.

Puka had a 28.7% target share, but only 20.5% were red zone targets, while Kupp owned 31.7% of the red zone looks. It’s not a coincidence that he salvaged some games by scoring touchdowns. That’s part of his role and he is very good at it.

Ever since Kupp was drafted, he’s had to share the volume with very talented wide receivers, especially Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods. During those seasons, it even became a nightmare predicting who of those three would get the majority of targets each week. A similar thing is happening now with Puka Nacua, but at least there are only two elite wideouts on the team now, and there should be enough volume for both of them to be very fantasy-relevant.

Conclusion

The Ballers’ rankings have Puka as the WR8 (slightly lower than ADP) and Kupp as the WR17 (significantly higher than ADP). Nacua’s ADP might drop a few spots now that he is considered week-to-week with a knee injury. But even without considering that, these two players have a very similar fantasy outlook in my opinion. I wouldn’t be surprised if both of them finish within the WR8-WR15 range. And if that’s the case, I’d much rather draft the cheaper one.