Red Zone Report: Week 15 (Fantasy Football)

Welcome to the 15th Red Zone Report of 2024, where I dive into the important stats and information you need to know from 20 yards and in. The first round of the playoffs is nearly over, but two crucial games tonight will resolve many matchups. Let’s get into some interesting players and trends from the 14 games that have already concluded this week.

Check out the Red Zone Report tool as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit to look at every player’s usage in the red zone, 10-zone, and five-zone.

Let’s begin by taking a look at efficiency in and out of the red zone.

The Bears, who play tonight, are one of the top red zone offenses, yet don’t play as well outside the 20-yard line. They’ll square off against the Vikings, who appear in the opposite quadrant. In the other Monday night game, the Falcons will face the Las Vegas Raiders. Kirk Cousins and the Atlanta offense have been struggling as of late; meanwhile, the Raiders are forced to start Desmond Ridder after a plethora of injuries to their quarterback unit. Let’s dive into some of the action from this week’s games.

Rushers

The graph below shows the relationship between rusher EPA per play and success rate in the red zone over the course of the season.

After yet another incredible performance by Josh Allen, he once again finds himself at the top of our red zone rush efficiency graph. Unfortunately, one of the most efficient red zone running backs, David Montgomery, suffered a season-ending MCL injury. We’ll get into his injury and others, along with what fantasy managers can do to fill holes and fix their seasons.

Jerome Ford

Nick Chubb suffered a broken foot on Sunday, which will likely sideline him for the remainder of the season, especially considering the Browns’ current record. This creates a massive opportunity for Jerome Ford, who took the majority of the rushing workload in the midst of Chubb’s extended absence in 2023.

While Jerome Ford wasn’t able to do much in the red zone in Week 15, he turned on the jets to score a major 62-yard touchdown from Browns territory. It can be expected that Ford will lead the Browns’ running back room for the last three weeks. More importantly, he should also take over as the primary red zone rusher. Last season, Ford ranked second among Browns players in red zone carries, only behind Kareem Hunt, who is now with the Chiefs. Jerome Ford should absolutely be the top waiver wire target this upcoming week.

James Conner

James Conner took full advantage of a great running back matchup versus the Patriots. He received four carries inside the 10-yard line, taking in two for touchdowns. Alongside a very efficient 110 yards on 16 carries and solid work in the receiving game, Conner put up a major number for his fantasy managers in a crucial week. Conner should continue to dominate going forward—a surprise to nobody.

Josh Allen

As previously mentioned, Josh Allen had himself a Sunday afternoon in downtown Detroit. Similarly to James Conner, he carried the ball four times in the red zone and took two of these tries in for touchdowns. Despite this amazing performance, all of the Bills’ running backs had a great game as well. James Cook had two rushing touchdowns, one of which came in the red zone. Also, University of Kentucky rookie Ray Davis got into the end zone on a five-yard reception. Finally, Ty Johnson did about everything except score a touchdown, catching each of his five targets for a cumulative 114 yards, in addition to nine yards on the ground.

While Josh Allen has become a major threat to the fantasy success of Bills running backs, their offense is so efficient and has so many opportunities that it is beginning to not matter.

Jahmyr Gibbs

On the other side of the field, Jahmyr Gibbs was one of many Detroit offensive weapons to have a great game. He managed to score two red zone touchdowns—one on the ground and one in the air. After the confirmation of David Montgomery’s MCL injury this morning, Jahmyr Gibbs will be taking on a much heavier workload. While it can be expected that the Lions will look to use their next man up, Craig Reynolds, Gibbs and his talents will be leaned on much more going forward. Buckle up for a very Sonic-friendly offense.

Receivers

Similarly to the previous graph, this will show receiver EPA per play against success rate in the red zone.

Rookie Brian Thomas Jr. is turning heads with his stellar play. Drake London and the Falcons have the opportunity to flip the narrative of their struggling offense in front of a national audience tonight.

Brian Thomas Jr.

BTJ is setting the league on fire. Despite his team’s struggling offense and backup quarterback, he scored two red zone touchdowns on Sunday. At 6’4″, 205 lbs., he has the frame to be a dominant WR1 for years to come.

Philadelphia Receivers

In a very tough matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Eagles’ passing attack looked stellar. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith both scored red zone touchdowns—a rare occurrence. Now with the fantasy playoffs on the line and two solid matchups remaining, the Eagles’ offense is primed to explode, in large part due to healthiness.

Conclusion

If you were fortunate enough to make it through to the second round, best of luck moving forward! Check back next week for the next Red Zone Report.

For more insights and a full breakdown of red zone rush and target data, try using the Red Zone Report tool as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit