Red Zone Report: Week 14 (Fantasy Football)

Welcome to the 14th Red Zone Report of 2024, where I dive into the important stats and information you need to know from 20 yards and in. The playoffs are nearly here! Red zone opportunities can be the difference between first-round exits and championships. Let’s dive right into the biggest headlines from the red zone in Week 14.

Check out the Red Zone Report tool as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit to look at every player’s usage in the red zone, 10-zone, and five-zone.

Let’s begin by taking a look at efficiency in and out of the red zone.

Two of our four top-tiered offenses, Detroit and Buffalo, will face off in what is sure to be an instant classic next week. The Miami offense continues to rise in efficiency since the return of Tua Tagovailoa; they’ll face a weaker passing offense in Houston next week. The Rams are another surging offense due to healthiness. Let’s start off by taking a look at the strongest red zone rushers from this week.

Rushers

The graph below shows the relationship between rusher EPA per play and success rate in the red zone over the course of the season.

Quarterbacks highlight the upper-right quadrant of our red zone rushing efficiency graph. Meanwhile, Zach Charbonnet capitalized in a big way while his teammate, Kenneth Walker, was out with an injury. If Walker is to miss more time, Charbonnet could be a league-winner. Let’s take a more specific look at the red zone rushers who highlighted this week in fantasy football.

Josh Jacobs

While Josh Jacobs may not be a very analytically efficient running back, he gets incredible volume with the Packers. This allows him to build up large cumulative stats across all parts of the field. On Thursday night in Detroit, Jacobs tore through a very injured top-ranked rush defense for three red zone touchdowns on the ground. Jacobs and the Packers have a middle-tiered set of playoff running back matchups; nevertheless, he is an every-week starter for the rest of the season.

Falcons Rushers

In a rough game against the Vikings, Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier were each able to record a red zone rushing touchdown. Robinson received more red zone carries than his teammate by a margin of eight to one. The Atlanta Falcons have one of the league’s easiest playoff schedules for running backs. Obviously, Bijan Robinson has been an “auto-start” all season long, however, these good matchups could open a window for Tyler Allgeier managers, especially those who have been plagued by injuries.

Josh Allen

James Cook managers look away! Josh Allen got all six of the Bills’ red zone carries and took three(!) in for touchdowns. While these touchdowns can fluctuate heavily from week to week, this is definitely a scary sight for Cook managers heading into the playoffs, especially with two incredibly tough schedules for running backs coming up in the next three weeks. Regardless, James Cook should still be started everywhere thanks to his receiving upside.

Kyren Williams

On the opposite side of the field from Josh Allen and the Bills, Kyren Williams had a great game on the ground, netting two red zone touchdowns. While Blake Corum and Puka Nacua did manage to get a decent share of the red zone rushes, Kyren Williams dominated given his opportunities. Week 14 marks the third consecutive week with a touchdown for Kyren Williams, in large part due to the increased success of the Rams’ offense. This can largely be attributed to the recent returns of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Kyren should be started with confidence in the playoffs, a notion no different from the fantasy regular season.

Receivers

Similarly to the previous graph, this will show receiver EPA per play against success rate in the red zone.

As Kirk Cousins continues to decline in production, so does his number one target—Drake London. Jordan Addison is emerging as a top red zone threat after yet another hot week. Let’s discuss Addison and other important red zone trends.

Jordan Addison

Jordan Addison and the Minnesota Vikings had an excellent day on offense at home against the Falcons. Addison brought in three touchdowns—a career-high; two of these touchdowns occurred in the red zone. Of his 12 total targets, five came inside the 20-yard line. The added red zone touchdown upside increases Jordan Addison’s fantasy ceiling substantially. This is Addison’s second 30+ PPR point performance over the last three games; combined with a solid playoff schedule for Vikings receivers, Addison could be heating up at the perfect time for fantasy managers.

Grant Calcaterra

After being placed on the injured reserve this past week, Dallas Goedert will be out for at least three more games. The Eagles’ next man up, Grant Calcaterra, was a red zone threat on Sunday when he scored a touchdown against the Panthers. In a pinch, Calcaterra provides a risky yet rewarding option due to his low volume paired with high touchdown opportunities on a strong offense.

Conclusion

We’ve finally made it! 14 weeks of starts, sits, trades, pickups, and cuts have all led to the fantasy playoffs. Make sure to check back next week for a new Red Zone report, and may the odds be ever in your favor during the playoffs.

For more insights and a full breakdown of red zone rush and target data, try using the Red Zone Report tool as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit.