Red Zone Report – Primer (Fantasy Football)

The part of the field inside the defense’s 20-yard line, also known as the red zone, is one of the most pivotal areas of the field. It is within these confines where 76.9% of all 2023 touchdowns were scored, and where less space is available for offenses to spread their weapons, granting defenses an advantage. While the red zone is an incredibly important area for NFL teams to capitalize on, it is also a major spot for fantasy managers to strike.

Check out the Red Zone Report tool as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit to look at every player’s usage in the red zone, 10 zone, and five zone.

Every week this NFL season, I will be writing a Red Zone Report detailing important stats from each week inside the 20-yard line. As the primer for this series of articles, this first installation will simply dive into why the red zone is so crucial for fantasy football and which stats are most important.

Rush Attempts

Running backs are the primary beneficiaries of drives that inch closer and closer to the opposing uprights. In fantasy football, a rushing touchdown from the one-yard line is worth more than a massive 60-yard rush in the open field. It is because of this inequality that finding backs who can dominate their team’s share of rushes inside the 20, 10, and five can prove to be so important.

Last year, Gus Edwards, Raheem Mostert, and Joe Mixon finished the season with 20 or more carries inside the five zone. On these carries, they scored 12, 12, and seven touchdowns, respectively.

Additionally, 44.7% of all 2023 rushing touchdowns were scored on the one or two yard lines. It is for this reason that we will be taking a very zoomed-in look at which backfields are getting the most carries in close, how the rushes are being distributed, and who is capitalizing.

Targets

66.8% of all 2023 passing touchdowns occurred in the red zone. It is for this reason that we will be looking into which receivers are earning opportunities to cash in for valuable touchdowns in the red zone.

In 2023, CeeDee Lamb (31) and Davante Adams (29) led the league in red zone targets; they turned these opportunities into nine and six touchdowns, respectively.

Opportunities by Team

As we know, red zone rushes and targets are crucial in order to generate touchdowns. Potentially more important, however, is the breakdown of these opportunities among teammates. A prime example of this can be seen in the Detroit Lions’ backfield, which features David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Last year, while it was expected that Montgomery, who profiles as a power back, would lead Detroit’s backfield in goal-line carries, Jahmyr Gibbs shocked us all by keeping pace and generating plenty of red zone points in the process.

It is important to monitor different week-to-week trends in the distribution of opportunities in order to best predict which players will dominate inside the 20.

Conclusion

While football coaches, players, and decisions are often unpredictable, we can do our best to find advantages in the uber-important red zone by constantly measuring rushes, targets, and conversion rates. Each week, I will dig into these important stats, trends, and more with my Red Zone Report. By purchasing the UDK and using interfaces like the Red Zone Report tool, you can find even more stats and trends on your own in order to dominate your leagues!