Predicting Bounce Back and Regression Using Fibonacci Levels (Fantasy Football)

Football is a chaotic sport. We use all the available data to try to predict what will happen, but everything can change unexpectedly at any moment due to several factors such as injuries, legal issues, trades, injuries, or even personal disagreements between players and coaches. That’s why winning in fantasy football is sometimes half skill/half luck.

That’s why last season I got deep into a crazy rabbit hole testing a method using Fibonacci levels to find a way to consider these chaotic variables when predicting bounce backs and regressions. It was a far-fetched experiment, but it actually worked. For example, last year the method suggested that James Conner could bounce back to around 14 or 16 fantasy points per game and he averaged 15.5. We also concluded that Mike Evans was in the perfect spot to bounce back up to around 16.5 fantasy points per game and that’s exactly what he averaged. As a final example, the Fibonacci levels told us that Derrick Henry could continue his downward trend to around 14 FPPG. He averaged 14.5 so it will be interesting to see what the method suggests for him this season.

There were of course some predictions that failed. Especially for players who had excessively chaotic seasons, such as Deshaun Watson. But curiously, Joe Flacco averaged what the method predicted for Watson during the games he played for the Cleveland Browns. So we might be up to something with this crazy method. 

How Does the Method Work?

For a full comprehensive introduction to Fibonacci numbers, I encourage you to check last season’s first Fibonacci article in which I laid out the whole idea behind the experiment. But in short, what we’re doing here is borrowing a specific use of the Fibonacci sequence from the stock trading world and applying the same logic to fantasy football to predict where trends can be expected to change directions, as an attempt to predict outcomes based on nothing but chaotic nature.

There is one area between two of the Fibonacci levels that traders call the “golden zone” which is where a natural bounce is expected. There are other levels where trends can bounce depending on how the trend has been behaving, for example, if it has been aggressively bearish or bullish. For this experiment, I used a simplified version of the Fibonacci retracement levels used by stock traders and overlaid it on different players’ performance graphs to see how their fantasy points per game have fluctuated over the years and try to find trends to predict realistic outcomes. 

So without further ado, let’s go once again down this rabbit hole and see what this method can tell us about some potential outcomes in fantasy football.

Quick disclaimer: Take this experiment with a grain of salt. It’s not an exact science and not even stock traders rely on these indicators blindly. There will always be other variables to consider, but use this as an extra source to build realistic expectations around players you already think could bounce back or regress.

Calvin Ridley – Tennessee Titans WR

Overview

Andy’s “my guy” Calvin Ridley has had an eventful career. First, he lived under Julio Jones’ shadow in Atlanta. He reached his peak in 2020, when he finished as the WR4 averaging 18.8 fantasy points per game. After that, his downward trend started. He dealt with anxiety issues and then lost the whole 2022 season serving a suspension for gambling. Then he signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars and didn’t really fit their system. So what can we expect from him now as a Tennessee Titan?

2024 Expectations

Taking 2022 out of the equation, Calvin Ridley has spent his last two seasons lingering around the golden zone marked by this first three-year upward trend. The Tennessee Titans signed him to a four-year, $92 million contract, making it clear that they consider him a centerpiece of their offense in this new phase. Will Levis wasn’t great last season, but this will be his first actual season as a proper starter and he is good at airing the ball out. Considering all these positive signs around Ridley, a realistic scenario according to the Fibonacci levels is for him to finally bounce back to around 18 FPPG. And yes, that’s top 12 territory.

Derrick Henry – Baltimore Ravens RB

Overview

After averaging his expected FPPG last season according to the method, I had to run it on him again. There’s too much speculation around him now that he is a Baltimore Raven. Some people think he is in the perfect spot to explode as a workhorse RB. Some others – myself included – have a more conservative approach and fear John Harbaugh might take it easy on the 30-year-old Yeti to make sure he still has juice for the postseason. But let’s see what the Fibonacci levels have to say about the eternal outlier. As we covered in last season’s Fibonacci article, Derrick Henry’s career followed an unstoppable upward trend from 2016 to 2020. Since then, he has still been an outlier, but his per-game production has been clearly declining. Last season the method suggested that one of the most logical outcomes for him was to continue going down until hitting the golden zone and he finished just a little above it.

2024 Expectations

So now it gets really interesting. Following the Fibonacci logic, there are two possible outcomes for Derrick Henry. We could consider he has virtually touched the golden zone. In that case, he could realistically bounce back to around 21 FPPG. On the other hand, if we get a little stricter and rule that he hasn’t reached the golden zone yet, his downward trend might naturally continue its way a little further down to the 13-14 FPPG area, disappointing all his “Yeti-lievers.”

Davante Adams – Las Vegas Raiders WR

Overview

After a disastrous 2023 season, we must take a look again at Davante Adams’ situation. The first time his career had a pullback was back in 2019 when he had a bullish bounce just between the 0.236 and 0.382 levels and registered his highest point in 2020. From there, he started a downward trend, and according to the method, he was in the golden zone to bounce back up last year. But he had an overly chaotic season with poor QB play and coaching changes, which made him drop further down in FPPG. So now what?

2024 Expectations

According to the theory, once the golden zone is broken, it’s hard for a trend to bounce back up until it finds another support zone. Davante Adams’ situation hasn’t gotten much better since last season. He is 31 years old and will start the season catching passes from Gardner Minshew, who isn’t an elite QB by any stretch of the imagination. So there’s a chance he continues following this downward trend if things don’t improve in Las Vegas.

However, Adams is still one of the most talented WRs in the league, and his FPPG in 2023 were right around his per-game production from 2016 and 2017 when he broke out in Green Bay, so there is some hope. If he somehow manages to turn things around and bounces back up, the Fibonacci levels suggest he could bounce to around 21.5 FPPG. That would be his second-best season, so I wouldn’t be too confident about this optimistic outcome.

Christian Kirk – Jacksonville Jaguars WR

Overview

Christian Kirk’s per-game production has not been very volatile. Every season he’s averaged somewhere between 10 and 15 fantasy points per game. He’s had his ups and downs but each of his low points has been a little higher than the previous one, which is a bullish sign. It’s important to note that his best season was his first campaign as a Jacksonville Jaguar in 2022.

2024 Expectations

As I mentioned in Christian Kirk’s Path to a WR1 season article, the current landscape in Jacksonville is much more similar to what it was in 2022 than how it looked last season. Competing for WR targets with Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. is less menacing to Kirk’s volume than having Calvin Ridley on the team. The drop from last season wasn’t enough for him to properly reach the golden zone marked by his last upward trend and he actually finished closer to the 0.382 level. According to the Fibonacci logic, since he has always registered higher highs and higher lows, he could still be on a bullish trend and bounce to an even higher high in the 15 FPPG area. But we must also consider the possibility of him continuing the current downward trend to the golden zone, which would be around 12 FPPG. If this is his floor, he is definitely a value at his current WR31 ADP.

Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals QB

Overview

Joe Burrow is a great quarterback surrounded by a great team. His career was following a straight upward trend to the moon until he had a very unlucky 2023 season. He injured his calf during training camp and then he injured his wrist in November and ended up on IR. However, there was a good five-week stretch in which he was the QB4 in fantasy points per game. So yes, when he is healthy, he is really good at football. 

2024 Expectations

Joe Cool is healthy now and it’s almost a guarantee that he will bounce back and be a value considering his current QB7 ADP. But how far up can he go? Since this was the first downward drop of his career, we can only read one Fibonacci retracement here, which suggests that a conservative outcome for him would be around 20 fantasy points per game. For context, last season that would have been enough for him to finish as the QB5.

Saquon Barkley – Philadelphia Eagles RB

Overview

After an amazing rookie season averaging 24 fantasy points per game, Saquon’s career had a massive two-year drop due to several reasons but he bounced back progressively and touched the exact golden zone from the previous trend in 2022. Then he regressed from it once again in 2023. But now that he’s a Philadelphia Eagle, there’s a lot of speculation around him. Will he be a workhorse? Will he steal some goal-line opportunities from Jalen Hurts or will they continue doing the tush push now that Jason Kelce retired? Too many variables in play.

2024 Expectations

In his last season as a New York Giant, Saquon Barkley’s per-game production dropped a little bit and finished just above the 0.236 level. If Nick Sirianni decides to rely heavily on him and involve him around the goal line, then he could have a bullish bounce here and the sky’s the limit. Well, maybe not the sky but if he stays healthy he could at least surpass his second-best season in which he averaged 18.8 FPPG and finished as the RB7. However, we have to admit there’s also a scenario in which he shares the rushing volume a little more than we would want him to. We’ve seen many former workhorse RBs go through this process when they change teams at an older age. If that’s the case, he could realistically drop down to the 11 FPPG realm. So it’s a matter of perspective: Are you bullish or bearish on Saquon’s first season as an Eagle?