Potential Bucs Fit: Texas WR Adonai Mitchell

In the final segment of our series on potential Bucs fits using RAS and age guardrails we look at Texas receiver Adonai Mitchell. Mitchell has been bandied about as a late first round option for receiver-needy playoff teams.

That’s right where the Bucs pick. And while the Bucs are set at the top of their WR depth chart right now, next year could look very different.

Mitchell is a physical specimen who definitely checks the Relative Athletic Score box for Bucs general manager Jason Licht. Mitchell registered a near perfect 9.99 RAS score makes him Top 5 out of over 3,000 receivers dating back to 1987.

Adonai Mitchell is a WR prospect in the 2024 draft class. He scored a 9.99 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 5 out of 3107 WR from 1987 to 2024.

With agilities outstanding (most WR skip bench), Mitchell is the highest RAS for WR in 2024 so far.https://t.co/t32le05j0m pic.twitter.com/daeAyl1NQX

— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) March 13, 2024

At 6-foot-2 and 205 pounds he has ideal size for a receiver. His 4.34 speed doesn’t always show up on tape, but we will get into why a bit later. His explosive testing shows a strong lower half that creates easy gear-downs and secondary acceleration. Mitchell will be just under 22 when the 2024 season begins.

Adonai Mitchell On Tape

Adonai Mitchell oozes talent on film. There are clips where you can see his all of the requisite skills for a primary receiver. He is sudden in his movements across multiple plains:

Adonai Mitchell 💀 pic.twitter.com/0xXMdjVSrD

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) April 12, 2024

He possesses deep speed:

If the #Bears can’t get a top-3 WR at No. 9? I wouldn’t mind trading down and drafting Adonai Mitchell.

The size, speed, route running IQ and ball skills are super enticing. He’s gonna carry a high grade from me. pic.twitter.com/XZvWYXFqm1

— Jacob Infante (@jacobinfante24) March 7, 2024

He has nuance to his route stems:

Texas WR Adonai Mitchell 📈📈

Major deep threat. Excellent route runner. Great combination of size + speed. He’s a 1st round talent. pic.twitter.com/rTpPaWjVWT

— Kendell Hollowell (@KHollowell_) November 8, 2023

And he displays great body control and hands to be a strong perimeter contested catch receiver.

Texas junior wide receiver Adonai Mitchell can become a solid NFL WR2 and borderline WR1.

6-4, 196 lbs, strong at the catch point, great ball skills, above-average speed. Top-tier ball placement by Quinn Ewers too.pic.twitter.com/EZQyeHwJTo

— Luca Sartirana (@SartiranaLuca) September 12, 2023

There is literally no skill you would want from a receiver that he does not flash. So what gives? Why is Mitchell not being mentioned in the same tier as Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabors and Rome Odunze? There are a few reasons.

What May Turn The Bucs Off

Right out of the gate it needs to be said. In a college game that allows premier receivers to shine, Mitchell has surprisingly pedestrian numbers.

With just 93 career catches for 1,405 yards and 18 touchdowns, his career performance is nearly eclipsed by the 2023 seasons of both Odunze (92-1,640-13) and Nabors (89-1,569-14). Some of this is due to an ankle injury that robbed Mitchell of most of his 2022 season. But even in 2023 where he played in 14 games, he still only amassed 55 catches for 845 yards and 11 touchdowns. While the volume of scores is impressive, the overall volume is concerning.

That averages out to four catches for 60 yards per game at the college level. Mitchell was playing in an offense with other stars. Texas running back Jonathon Brooks is considered by some as the top running back in this year’s draft and fellow receiver Xavier Worthy has first round buzz as well.

But Nabors played with Brian Thomas Jr. and Odunze was one third of a talented trio of receivers with Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan.

Disinterest On Tape

Of all the general managers in the NFL who look for players who are “dogs,” Jason Licht may be the highest on that particular personality trait. And there is plenty of film that make me question as to whether Mitchell is fully engaged on a snap-to-snap basis. Remember earlier when I said he flashes his deep speed? Some guys test well in the 40-yard dash but don’t “play fast”. Mitchell has plenty speed on tape, but it’s not consistent. The reason is that he chooses which plays he wants to actually turn on the jets and others where he runs at half or less speed.

It shows on reps where he isn’t the primary read, or he’s working the backside of a 3×1 and doesn’t think the defensive alignment will trigger the quarterback to look his way. And it translates to his blocking as well. When investing a first-round pick on a player teams want to know they are getting a guy who is fully invested on the field. With Mitchell, strictly from my vantage point, that’s a big question mark. Yes, there are receivers that we all remember who had that attitude but were still singular talents. Randy Moss comes to mind. But Mitchell’s lack of production doesn’t exactly scream “talent will win over everything else”.

Should The Bucs Take Adonai Mitchell At 26?

The talent that Adonai Mitchell displays is worthy of a first-round selection. His traits and athleticism paint the picture of a player who could be a top receiver in all of football. The route running is already more advanced than most. The mid-to-long-term roster need is there.

Mike Evans is moving into the latter stage of his career; Chris Godwin is only under contract through the end of this season and Trey Palmer has flashed but not broken out. It’s unlikely the team will continue to pay two receivers $20+ million per year and Godwin will easily get that payday with another 1k yard campaign this season.

Mitchell has positional flexibility to play the X, Z or Y this year, moving into and out of the slot. Then in 2025 he could permanently take Godwin’s role as Godwin is likely to move on. He could strengthen the Bucs receiver room and the offense as a whole at its ceiling and its floor.

But it will really come down to the interviews. We have not heard of the Bucs meeting with Mitchell at all, but last year we didn’t hear of the Bucs meeting with Calijah Kancey. New receivers coach Bryan McClendon coached Mitchell at Georgia before the wideout moved on to Texas, so they may already have all of the intel they need.

If the Bucs end up selecting Mitchell, I will assume they were satisfied with his interviews. There are things that make me think it isn’t out of the question that he could have shown well in those areas. He left the national champion Georgia Bulldogs for Texas last year to be closer to his daughter. That shows maturity that Licht and the Bucs may appreciate.

Licht has said that he is very proud of his team’s ability to identify good character/competitors.

During his recent press conference he said: “Yeah. We’ve had a lot of stability here with my staff. I think more stability than any other team, in terms of people staying here – which is a great thing. We all know each other very well. I think we’ve done a great job – I’ve done a better job, myself, as well – of going after the right kind of guy and avoiding the temptation to go after the talent and not necessarily the whole person. I think we’ve done a great job – my staff has done a great job of identifying that with our character grade. We put a lot of stock into that. When you see players getting in trouble, suspended, whatever, I’ll look it up and, yep, we had a ‘do not touch’ grade on them. It’s been phenomenal in that regard.”

If Tampa Bay is happy with Mitchell, the person/competitor, I would applaud the pick because the talent he displays compared to other players who will be available at that range is likely to represent a wide gap. If Mitchell is still on the board when the Bucs pick, and they go in another direction it could be very telling for how any potential interviews may have gone.