Players Who POP: Finding the Best Late-Round Draft Values (Fantasy Football)

Welcome back to Players Who POP. In this multi-part series, I used machine learning to predict season-long fantasy scoring with a major emphasis on team strength. We can use this expected scoring metric, nicknamed POP (previous opportunity-based projection), to identify players that stand out in each tier of current fantasy drafts. The model is used to predict running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, however, quarterbacks are omitted from the analysis.

This article digs into the middle and later rounds, the end of the starter rounds for most fantasy leagues. This year, it seems that wide receiver fever has hit, leaving a bevy of talent and expected touches available to savvy fantasy managers extremely late in fantasy drafts. Let’s dig into the data.

Players Who POP – Late Rounds

POP really likes two-down “boring” backs like David Montgomery, James Conner, and Najee Harris, who are easily outpacing ADP-based expectations, at least based on this predictive metric. These less-flashy backs aren’t typically discussed in fantasy football content, and as a result, the cohort appears to be overlooked in drafts. Expected output from tight ends seems to be more palatable here, with David Njoku, Dalton Schultz, and even the banged-up T.J. Hockenson showing closer-to (or better-than) ADP-based performance compared to some earlier round tight ends.

It’s also worth noting the steep drop-off in POP starting around the 90th overall flex player, indicating that’s the point in drafts where you should start to take bigger swings, aiming for upside rather than floor (which has essentially fallen off completely). For those who use auction formats, this is a good indicator that starter flex spots should be filled with top-90 options, and after that point, you’re losing significant expected output.

Improved Team Scenarios

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

There are plenty of contextual factors about Smith-Njigba’s 2023 to explain away a putrid POP score. Smith-Njigba missed a bunch of camp with a broken arm and took time to get going last season. He looked much more comfortable by season’s end, earning seven-plus targets in three of his final six contests. Teammate Tyler Lockett is now 31, which could naturally lead to a shift in target distribution that benefits both Smith-Njigba and D.K. Metcalf. Add in a modernized scheme under new Offensive Coordinator Ryan Grubb, who has a history of getting the most out of his wide receivers, and we have a recipe for a second-year breakout.

D’Andre Swift

Having Caleb Williams under center should immediately boost Chicago’s offense, and with it, the upside of their starting running back. The Bears boast arguably the league’s best wide receiver room — with Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, and Rome Odunze — and the capable Cole Kmet at tight end. Sure, we can make the old “too many mouths to feed” argument, but more likely, defenses will be stretched thin trying to cover all these weapons. Swift, the clear pass-catching back in this offense, likely benefits from lighter defensive attention and more open space to operate.

Jameson Williams

Williams is locked in as the clear WR2 in a Detroit offense that’s projected to be one of the highest-scoring teams in the league this season, and currently projects for the second-most wins in the NFC. With a dream offensive schedule that keeps them indoors until November, Williams is positioned to see significant run, and with it, way more opportunities within the Detroit passing attack. Even just a slight boost in target share likely makes WIlliams a strong pick at ADP, as he’s undoubtedly going to be the Lions’ deep threat. Williams’ aDOT of 15.6 yards ranked fifth-highest in the NFL last season, which also helps explain away his middling yards per route run, which ranked outside the top-50 wideouts last season.

Misvalued Players

Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara might be the most fundamentally misvalued player in all of fantasy football right now, as it appears nothing except injury will keep him from paying off at a significantly depressed ADP. Dennis Allen’s hyper-traditional offense, which prioritizes Kamara’s pass-catching ability, means the Saints’ abysmal offensive line shouldn’t affect Kamara’s production, as his value doesn’t hinge on long rushes at all. If he remains a high-volume pass catcher out of the backfield, he’ll put up elite numbers compared to ADP-based expectations, regardless of what’s happening in the trenches. Kamara earned five targets or more in every game he played on at least 50% of team snaps.

Aaron Jones

Jones is another who only fails at ADP because of injury. Even with the unproven Sam Darnold under center in Minnesota, Jones is set up to be the clear lead back with virtually no NFL-caliber competition behind him on the depth chart. Simply getting a bell-cow back this late used to never happen, but with wide receiver ADPs continuing to remain high, Jones has sometimes slipped into a very affordable range in drafts. Darnold will also likely rely on dump-offs to Jones under pressure, especially while tight end T.J. Hockenson remains sidelined. While his weekly ceiling might not be as high as in previous years, the floor is incredibly strong given his expected volume.

Raheem Mostert

Fantasy managers are overly focused on the obvious negative touchdown regression and the speed of De’Von Achane. But after a 21-touchdown season, it’s safe to say that Mostert, in the exact same role as last year, has some of the highest probability of any back to find the end zone so long as he’s on the field. The offensive line in Miami isn’t stellar, but Mike McDaniel can more than compensate for those deficiencies with playcalling and scheme innovation. The risk is baked entirely into his ADP, leaving savvy drafters with an opportunity to capitalize on a player who still has a clear path to high-value touches and still has a sky-high ceiling.

Improved Team Scenarios

Zack Moss

Moss has a huge opportunity as the projected starting running back in Cincinnati to start the season. With quarterback Joe Burrow back on the field and the Bengals’ offense expected to be one of the best in the league once again, Moss is positioned to smash at ADP, even if he’ll inevitably lose passing game work to speedster Chase Brown. Moss will have plenty of opportunities to score at the goal line, and those opportunities could come in bunches, as last year’s starter Joe Mixon ranked top five in goal line carries last season. The quality of the offense around Moss should bolster his weekly floor and ceiling, making him a stellar back for teams that go zero-RB or hero-RB.

Gus Edwards

This is a pure volume play. Edwards faces limited competition in Los Angeles, with only the oft-injured J.K. Dobbins and sixth-rounder Kimani Vidal standing in his way of being a full-time back. Edwards could end up with nearly all early-down work on one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league and could earn his way into a three-down very easily. Justin Herbert is still likely to lead the Chargers on plenty of touchdown drives, even in a slowed-down, run-first scheme, which all points to Edwards being funneled opportunities near the goal line.

Misvalued Players

Joshua Palmer

Drafters are also being way too tentative with the top two receivers in the Chargers’ offense. Palmer ranked 18th in the NFL in yards per target a season ago, and even if second-round rookie Ladd McConkey lives up to the hype and is immediately impactful, Palmer remains well-positioned to secure a significant role on the outside, likely eclipsing a 20% target share. Justin Herbert has shown the ability to support multiple productive receivers in the past, meaning both Palmer and McConkey can thrive and be solid value picks at their respective draft prices.

Tony Pollard

Pollard, who was going near the top of drafts this time last year, has now sunk to an unfathomably low ADP as a projected part-time contributor on an unproven Tennessee offense. But what if we get the old Tony Pollard back in 2024? Like the Tony Pollard who ranked top-five in the NFL in yards per touch. Now a year removed from significant foot surgery, Pollard – who admitted that he wasn’t fully himself until the later weeks of 2023 – steps into an offense that’s designed to outscore opponents with gunslinger Will Levis under center. While Tyjae Spears impressed as a rookie last season, there are still concerns about his ability to handle a heavy workload in the NFL due to his degraded knees, which were a red flag during last year’s draft process. Pollard is set to be the early-down back in this high-octane offense, with a clear path to expanded high-value touches and scoring opportunities, making him an easy draft at ADP.