Phillies Sign Max Kepler… What’s Next?

The Phillies and outfielder Max Kepler have agreed to a 1-year deal worth $10 million, per multiple reports:

Sources telling @feinsand and me that the #Phillies and OF Max Kepler are working on a one-year deal, pending a physical. Kepler, 31, has spent entire 10-year career with the Twins.

— Todd Zolecki (@ToddZolecki) December 20, 2024

Kepler, 31, has spent all 10 career seasons in Minnesota with the Twins. His best season came in 2019, when he put his name on the map by crushing 36 home runs, 90 RBIs, and logging a 123 OPS+.

Everything since that has been pretty meh. His batting average stayed under .230 from 2020-2022. He had a bounceback year in 2023, slashing .260/.332/.484 with an .816 OPS, but dealt with injuries in 2024 and logged just 8 homers in 399 PAs.

I’m intrigued by the signing and upside of the bat itself, but the fit confuses me at this point. Max Kepler has played 7,363 innings in right field, 1,126.1 innings in centerfield, and zero career innings in left field.

The Kepler signing screams to me that something else is coming. I’d be shocked if their plan is to run Kepler in left in his age 31 season for the first time in his career. Granted, he’s been an unbelievable defender throughout those 10 years, so the Phillies might think a transition would work. Nick Castellanos could potentially move to left field, but he’s only played 99 career innings on the left side.

The Phillies are floating around that third surcharge, which would give them a 110% tax on all overages. Tim Kelly did a great job of outlining where the Phillies stand in his most recent article.

It doesn’t seem like Dave Dombrowski wants to go over that third tax, but just adding Max Kepler to an outfield that struggled in 2024 would be underwhelming. I like the bat, I like the upside, but it feels to me like there’s a missing piece to this story right now. Is there a trade coming? I think that’s absolutely on the table. It feels like they could try to dump a big salary to open up money. Castellanos is a name that’s been in trade rumors this offseason.

This move also doesn’t help the chances of Jeff Hoffman’s return to Philadelphia. Hoffman is going to make big reliever money. The Phillies don’t necessarily have that right now if their plan is to stay under the third surcharge.

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