Phillies a -175 Favorite Behind Ranger Suarez in Game 2 of Tampa Series

Game 2 of this Phillies and Rays series could mirror the opener.

Ranger Suarez is going up against Taj Bradley in a battle of pitchers who, when at their best, can quiet any lineup in baseball.

The Phils are a -175 favorite because they’re the better team, are playing at home, and Suarez has been a bit more consistent lately compared to Bradley.

Suarez has only allowed 12 hits in his three starts since coming off the injured list. He’s allowed five earned runs in that span, but four of them came against Atlanta. He shut down the Miami Marlins and Kansas City Royals.

The big question surrounding Suarez is whether Rob Thomson will stretch him out if he cruises through the Rays lineup in the first five innings. Suarez hasn’t pitched past the fifth inning in his last three starts.

That’s an important factor to note because Suarez’s over/under for outs recorded is 17.5.

Each of the last four starters to face Tampa Bay recorded at least 17 outs. Cristopher Sanchez went six innings with four strikeouts on Monday.

Betting on the outs recorded prop may be a bit risky because you’re battling between the recent trend against the Rays and managerial decisions.

The same can be said about Suarez’s strikeout prop at over/under 5.5, because he struck out six batters against Atlanta and Kansas City, but only fanned four against Miami.

Tampa Bay is tied for fifth in the majors for the most strikeouts, but got the ball in play against Sanchez Monday night and only struck out four times against the lefty. Suarez is a better strikeout pitcher than Sanchez, so maybe he has more success, but it could be a battle to get to six punchouts.

Bradley poses an even tougher conundrum. He got shelled in July with the concession of 28 earned runs, but he reversed form and struck out 10 batters over seven innings in his last start against the Twins.

Regardless of what version of Bradley shows up on Tuesday, he is susceptible to home runs. He’s allowed 20 long balls. Left-handed hitters have had more overall success against Bradley, but righties have two more homers against him.

It just so happens that the Phillies’ hottest hitters at the moment are lefties. Kyle Schwarber, Bryson Stott, and Brandon Marsh have combined for 24 hits in the last week.

I’d look into some kind of Schwarber/Stott/Marsh hit parlay if online sports betting in NJ, but do not get too crazy with batter props given how strong both starters can be, and the three runs scored by the Phils in the last two games.

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