Observations: A Great First Half with a Comically Bad Finish

The Phillies began the first half of this season with a clunker at home and they ended it with a clunker at home. Fortunately for them, the 62-32 record in the 94 games in between will get it done.

Still, they were rolled Sunday by an Athletics team that closed the first half 24 games under .500, one that entered Sunday with MLB’s third-worst scoring lineup. That certainly did not matter in the finale, as Oakland lit up Phils pitching for eight total home runs en route to a 18-3 blowout win.

Phillies’ Altered Pitching Plan Fails

In an ideal world, Zack Wheeler’s back doesn’t give him problems, he takes the ball and blows the doors off a bad lineup, the Phillies go into the break on the strength of a 5-1 homestand. Good times had by all.

Instead, the Phillies’ (smart) precautionary approach with Wheeler led to Michael Mercado getting the bulk of innings early. That did not work out.

We’re only four games into Mercado’s Major League career, but it has been a struggle for the 25-year-old.

Command issues have been glaringly apparent, and it’s not just the eight walks in 11 2/3 innings. Pitches like this one won’t play, not even against baseball’s worst lineups.

429 ft. from Law pic.twitter.com/Db8TdsY41N

— Oakland A’s (@Athletics) July 14, 2024

 

 

Command issues aren’t new for Mercado, who walked 4.37 batters per nine with Lehigh Valley this season, a year after issuing 5.07 walks per nine across two levels in 2023.

Maybe the Phillies scale back the demand, turn him back into a one-inning guy where he can let it rip. It became apparent that Mercado had started to tire by the fourth inning and was totally cooked by the sixth.

Maybe they send him back down and see if he can figure things out with some more developmental time and less pressure.

He has shown promise in both spring training and with the Iron Pigs this season, but it’s pretty clear his current multi-inning role isn’t going to work, at least not right now.

Tell Me Without Telling Me

I know the Phillies were down some bullpen arms and needed Mercado to give them a few innings, but letting him face Brent Rooker in the sixth was an interesting choice. I write this while also acknowledging the poor performance(s) that proceeded his, but, man.

Two innings after Rooker took Mercado 450 feet out to center over the batter’s eye, he got him a second time with a two-run shot that basically ended the game.

The decision to stay with Mercado (in real-time, mind you) felt like a step short of telling fans, “Thanks for coming out. We’ll be back Friday night.”

The play from that point forward seemed to confirm that message.

In case you didn’t know, cause it sure seems like some people don’t…

Brent Rooker’s 2024 stats: .291 AVG, .943 OPS, 21 HR, 18 2B, 61 RBI pic.twitter.com/ki8xENkS4B

— Oakland A’s (@Athletics) July 14, 2024

Didn’t See That Coming

If you’re a hitter and you check the numbers of A’s starter Joey Estes, you have to figure you’re going to put runs on the board — especially at home.

Estes entered his start Sunday with a 1-4 record and 9.10 ERA across seven road starts this season, but his road struggles weren’t a factor in this one.

The Phillies managed a first-inning Trea Turner solo homer and little else. In fact, they were held hitless in just two opportunities with runners in scoring position against Estes.

They would have been held to only two runs over six innings had Miguel Andujar not made an embarrassing throwing error that plated a second run on a routine Bryson Stott sacrifice fly.

A Positive From This One

Alec Bohm recorded his 32nd and 33rd doubles, putting him on-pace for 56 this season. That’s only three behind Chuck Klein’s franchise record of 59 set back in 1930.

Turner Has Earned All-Star Start

Maybe it was a little bit questionable when it was announced earlier this month that Turner was voted the National League’s starting shortstop. It’s tough to give a guy who’s missed over 30 games due to injury the nod, and with Elly De La Cruz and a resurgent Francisco Lindor in the midst of strong seasons, it’s even tougher.

But you know what? Turner, who has played only played 57 games this season, has been so good that it really doesn’t matter.

Since his return on June 17, he is 36-for-101 (.356 BA) with nine homers and 23 RBI.

Of National League shortstops with at least 50 games played, Turner ranks number one in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS. He’s second behind only Mookie Betts in on-base percentage.

Given his absurd production when in the lineup, it’s hard to imagine Turner not near the top of the National League MVP odds with Bryce Harper and Shohei Ohtani had he not missed over a month.

Hell, he’s still got the 10th best odds to win the award at FanDuel.

Castellanos, Stott Heading In Opposite Directions

How you look at this next one is all about a matter of perspective, I guess.

On May 18, the Phillies knocked off the Nationals, 4-3, in extra innings.

Nick Castellanos went 0-for-4, dropping his average to .194. His OPS fell to a dismal .556 through 47 games. Conversely, Bryson Stott went 1-for-4, contributing a key seventh-inning homer that tied the game at 2-2. Stott finished the night hitting .280 with an .855 OPS.

Would you have believed it then if I told you that Castellanos, 48 games later, would head into the all-star break with a better OPS than the one held by Stott?

• Castellanos: .679 OPS
• Stott: .676 OPS

Since May 18, Castellanos has been solid. It’s not always pretty (including Sunday), but entering the series finale with the A’s, he put together a .272/.318/.804 slashline during a run that included 22 total extra-base hits and nine homers.

As for Stott, a player who once looked poised to make a serious run at an all-star bid this season, he slashed just .208/.272/.542 in the same timeframe. Perhaps his worst game came Saturday when he went 0-for-4 with four strikeouts (all swinging) and a walk.

For greater context regarding his struggles, Stott’s .205 average dating back to May 19 ranks 20th out of 21 qualified second baseman. His .540 OPS ranks last.

The Phillies have a number of notable key contributors who will stand to benefit from the all-star break. They will certainly hope that Stott is among them.

For what it’s worth, he’s been a better post-break hitter in his short career, posting a .733 second-half OPS against a .684 first-half OPS.

Nola to Start Second Half

Speaking of key contributors who will benefit from some time off, Rob Thomson told reporters Sunday morning that Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suarez won’t face the Pirates in Pittsburgh next weekend.

Instead, they will use the break to give both pitchers, who are each dealing with back troubles, extended rest. Aaron Nola will pitch Friday. Their starter Saturday will depend on if Cristopher Sanchez throws Tuesday night.

A Prolonged Test Is Coming

Thomson also said pregame Sunday the team is targeting Minnesota for the return of J.T. Realmuto.

That’s good news. The Phillies will need as much help as they can get as they navigate a challenging start to the second half schedule.

After three games in Pittsburgh against an improving Pirates squad, they will play 19 consecutive games against teams with a winning record.

During said stretch, they will face the AL East’s second best team  (Yankees) and the AL Central’s top two teams (Guardians and Twins).

That’s all before a 10-game trip that features the AL West-leading Mariners, NL West-leading Dodgers and the defending National League Champion (as if you needed a reminder) Diamondbacks.

Entering Sunday, the combined record of the Phillies’ first seven second-half opponents stood at 374-296 (.558 winning percentage). That’s no joke.

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