NFL Win Totals Odds, Betting Lines & Best Bets: Buccaneers are a prime candidate for regression

Football is finally back! The NFL preseason has certainly been eventful, and we are now just over 2 weeks away from the start of the regular season. Week 1 will kick off on September 5 with an electric Thursday Night Football matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens. Here at Pickswise, we are building up to the new season and you can check out our NFL futures guide, which has our Super Bowl winner picks, MVP best bets, division previews, player award predictions and much more!

For now, I’ll be breaking down my favorite NFL win totals that still have plenty of value as the season approaches. Featuring best bets from 4 different divisions, here are the NFL odds and my NFL picks for my favorite win totals on the board as of Monday, August 19. Let’s get into it.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers under 8.5 wins (-150)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing

Even after losing Tom Brady to retirement following the 2022 season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers kept on trucking in 2023. Todd Bowles’ team won the NFC South once again last season, before dispatching the Eagles in the Wild Card round to advance to the Divisional Round for the 4th time in 5 years. What’s even more impressive is the fact that the Buccaneers found a way to make the playoffs (and win a playoff game) despite going through a stretch where they went 1-6 over a 7-game stretch from Week 6 to Week 12. Tampa Bay also has the worst winning percentage over a 2-year stretch in NFL history by a team that still made the playoffs in both seasons. If that stat doesn’t immediately scream out “regression” to you, then you might be looking at this Buccaneers squad with rose-colored glasses.

Baker Mayfield made a leap in his first season as the starter in Tampa Bay, in large part thanks to his relationship with quarterback guru Dave Canales. However, Canales is now off to Carolina and that could spell trouble for Mayfield and this Buccaneers offense. The vast majority of the explosive plays that Mayfield and this offense generated were on late downs, which are prone to far more variance than early downs. His accuracy also was below average on early downs compared to 3rd downs. I don’t see this group being able to live on explosive plays while also benefiting from extreme turnover luck this time around. Defensively, Tampa Bay was a slightly below average unit a season ago, and I expect a similar outcome in 2024. Outside of the NFC South slate, the Bucs will play the Lions, Eagles, Ravens, 49ers and Cowboys, hardly an easy slate for the defending division champs. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this was a 7-win team come January.

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Los Angeles Chargers under 9 wins (-125)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing

2023 was a disastrous season for the Chargers and Los Angeles finally cleaned house and brought in Jim Harbaugh for his second stint in the NFL to change the fortunes of this franchise. While I do like the upside of having Harbaugh on the sideline from a long term perspective, I’m still looking to fade the Chargers and their inflated price in the market coming into this particular season. On paper, the Chargers were handed one of the easiest schedules in the league, but I don’t think Los Angeles is in good position to capitalize on that advantage just yet.

Los Angeles has one of the best quarterbacks in football leading the way in Justin Herbert, but the rest of this offense leaves a lot to be desired. For starters, the 5th year QB is dealing with a plantar fascia injury that is could certainly linger through the early portion of this season. The Chargers also lost Keenan Allen at wide receiver and Austin Ekeler at running back, who were Herbert’s favorite targets in the passing game in his young career thus far. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman is notorious for calling a run-heavy game, so time will tell if Herbert will throw the ball a lot less this season. I have serious concerns with the offensive line, as well as a defense that is quite simply bereft of talent at the moment. While I could see Los Angeles winning 8 games with this very favorable schedule, the playoff pricing and futures market in general seems like a bullish projection on what things could be in the near future for the Chargers, just not this season.

Detroit Lions over 10.5 wins (-125)

Odds available at BetRivers Sportsbook at time of publishing

The Lions entered the 2023 season with considerably higher expectations than for any Detroit team in quite some time, and I’d say that they exceeded those expectations by any measure. Detroit finished with 12 wins in the regular season and reached the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 1992, making this instantly the most successful Lions team in 3 decades. Typically I’d look to fade a team like Detroit following the season it just had, but I’ve got plenty of optimism for Dan Campbell’s bunch heading into the 2024 campaign.

It all starts with the offense for a Lions team that should have one of the most well-rounded units across the league this fall. Jared Goff is back at quarterback, and he’ll be protected by what is likely the best offensive line in football. Lions fans should also be encouraged by the fact that Detroit will play 14 of its 17 games this season indoors, a major plus for Goff and this balanced offense. Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams are some of the brightest young skill position players in the sport, and the Lions defense should take a noticeable step forward after adding Marcus Davenport up front and drafting for need in the secondary. This is easily one of the best rosters in football and I’m expecting another 11 or 12 win campaign in Detroit this season.

Be sure to check out our full NFC North predictions and best bets!

San Francisco 49ers under 11.5 wins (-125)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing

If I was a fan of the San Francisco 49ers, I wouldn’t exactly be pleased with how the last 6 months have gone. After falling just short in the Super Bowl back in February, this has been a noisy offseason for the defending NFC Champions, which should set off some alarm bells for any seasoned bettor. On offense, Brock Purdy is entering into his second full season as the starting quarterback and made some waves with recent quotes about playing the position more like Tom Brady, a lofty goal for a guy with a lot to prove this season. In the receiving room, rookie wideout Ricky Pearsall is already injured and could miss time while Brandon Aiyuk’s name has been in trade rumors all summer long.

Things aren’t much better elsewhere, as Trent Williams is holding out in hopes of a new contract. While I do believe that they’ll get that deal done, Williams has essentially missed all of training camp and might not be in game shape for the first week or two in September. Furthermore, Christian McCaffrey is recovering from a calf strain injury. There’s also the often referenced “Super Bowl hangover” looming over a team that has come so close to getting over the hump in recent seasons.

I’d expect San Francisco to take its foot off the gas a bit during the upcoming regular season in order to prioritize the health of its star players instead of pushing to grab another #1 seed in the NFC. The 49ers just missed having a top 10 schedule in terms of difficulty, but outside of their already challenging NFC West slate, San Francisco does play the Jets, Chiefs, Cowboys, Bills, Packers, Bears, Dolphins and Lions. That is far from a walk in the park, so I’m in on the under 11.5 wins for this 49ers team.

Don’t miss our expert’s full NFC West prediction and best bets!

Seattle Seahawks over 7.5 wins (-135)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing

Following a 2022 season that saw Geno Smith make a major leap and lead the Seahawks to the playoffs in his first year as the starting quarterback, regression hit Seattle in a major way in 2023. Not only did Seattle drop some close games, but injuries really impacted the roster and Pete Carroll seemed to be out of tricks in his final season as head coach. However, I thought the Seahawks brass made a fantastic hire in getting former Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to be the new head coach. Given the talent and experience on this roster, plus a couple of inspired new coaching hires in the offseason, the Seahawks are a team that I think is poised for a bounce-back season this fall.

Seattle has one of the better wide receiver rooms in this conference, and new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb should have Smith getting the ball out of his hands quickly while creating mismatches for this talented group of receivers, much like he did for Michael Penix Jr. over the last couple of seasons at Washington. On the other side of the ball, the defense should be improved under Macdonald’s tutelage, and they’ll have a chance to leave a mark early with 4 of their first 5 games against turnover-prone quarterbacks. I’m buying the upside of this Seahawks team, so I’m happy to take the over 7.5 on Seattle’s win total.

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