NFL Week 4 Underdog Picks: Who Will Deliver an Upset?

The Rams are coming off an unlikely win as 6-point underdogs against the San Francisco 49ers. Despite a myriad of injuries, the Rams prevailed by a score of 27-24. QB Matthew Stafford orchestrated a beautiful comeback to oust the 49ers by a field goal.

Behind by 14 points in the 1st quarter, the Rams gathered themselves to win their first game of the season. They were coming off a humiliating 41-10 blowout to the Cardinals and had to take that loss personally.

The injury report will hurt the Rams again this season. However, can we trust Caleb Williams to come up big over Stafford? The Bears’ rookie QB has not been in the best of form to open his career. Similar to Justin Fields, Williams is running around trying to make things happen behind a sloppy offensive line.

4th and goal. Speed option.

Look at the offensive line pic.twitter.com/UbyHxuMZ3a

— Dave (@dave_bfr) September 22, 2024

Rookie quarterbacks and bad offensive lines are not a good combination. Regardless of how talented the quarterback might be, playing as a rookie on a team with a struggling offensive line is not a good formula for success. The NFL game moves so much faster that a crumbling pocket is a massive detriment.

The play calling has also been suspect for the Bears. Matt Eberflus isn’t favored to be the first NFL coach fired, but his coaching staff’s seat has to be warming up. I am not too excited about backing Williams as a favorite over Stafford.

The Bears’ only win is due to special teams and defense against a winless Titans squad in Week 1. Williams enters Week 4 with 630 yards, two touchdowns, and four interceptions on 59.3% completions. He has to hit more of his targets before the offense starts progressing.

Give me Stafford and his veteran leadership for the first of my three NFL underdog picks for Week 4!

There have been plenty of wild and unpredictable results this season in the NFL. Perhaps the craziest would be the Chargers defeating the Chiefs with a backup quarterback. It’s possible that Justin Herbert could be replaced by Taylor Heinicke due to an ankle injury.

As one of the largest underdogs on the board, the Chargers aren’t expected to be competitive at home. Currently, the Chiefs have an implied chance of 80.4% to beat the Chargers. The underdogs are looking for their first win over the Chiefs since 2021.

Kansas City has dominated this AFC West series with five consecutive wins over the Chargers. However, Jim Harbaugh wasn’t there for any of those games. He was there last week for a 20-10 loss to the Steelers on the road.

Love you guys!!! pic.twitter.com/rOE4Mbkydf

— Coach Harbaugh (@CoachJim4UM) September 9, 2024

I suspect that Harbaugh will have his team geared up to respond with a stronger performance. Even if Heinicke gets the start, I can see the Chargers doing enough to catch the Chiefs off-guard with their physical defense.

Harbaugh will have the defense prepared for Patrick Mahomes, while Heinicke has to manage this game properly and is capable of doing that much. Since entering the NFL in 2017, he has passed for 6,659 yards, 39 touchdowns, and 28 interceptions. Herbert’s x-ray was negative, though, so the starter could play after all.

Last season, Heinicke passed for 890 yards, five touchdowns, and four interceptions in a bad Falcons’ offense. The Chargers have a solid run game to lean on, which is Harbaugh’s MO. They are seventh in the NFL, averaging 152 rushing yards per game!

The Chiefs are 3-0, but they’ve been vulnerable in all three games. Look for the Chargers to have a chance to shock the NFL, so consider Harbaugh’s side for your Week 4 NFL underdog picks!

Update: I backed the Chargers early in the week at +330, but the odds are now down to +285. It’s still a decent wager, but if the price drops belo +280, I don’t recommend this wager.w

Certain NFL teams prefer to play with their backs against the wall. Some players and head coaches are at their best when they are in an underdog role.

The competitive spirit of wanting to prove doubters wrong can be a strong motivator! One of the most effective ways to identify these squads is to note teams that have a strong record as an underdog on the moneyline.

Additionally, bettors can use against-the-spread (ATS) data to help formulate their game plan. For instance, the Washington Commanders (8-5 ATS), Indianapolis Colts (7-4 ATS), and Cleveland Browns (6-1 ATS) were great underdog NFL picks last season.

I also take note of the record of head coaches and quarterbacks as underdogs! While this isn’t a sure-fire guarantee of success in their next game, it can be used as a guide to tell you which personnel in the NFL “gets up” with their backs against the wall.

There will always be an underdog and a favorite in every NFL matchup! However, did bookies miss something in their analysis? For instance, does the underdog have one glaring advantage over a weakness of the favorite side?

It requires digging into advanced statistics to find these small edges on the football field. The public and online sportsbooks are well aware of the major mismatches in games. We recommend researching these strengths and weaknesses, but also looking at the game within the game.

For instance, does the favorite have an injury or depth issues flying under the radar that the public is ignoring? Injuries to star players aren’t the only determining factor in the result of games.

The health and status of the offensive line is also a huge factor that can’t be ignored! There are great teams in the NFL that can crumble due to problems in the trenches, so always check on this aspect for your best underdog picks in the NFL.

Recency bias plays a huge role in how point spreads and NFL odds are crafted. Bettors react to what just happened instead of looking at the whole picture.

Following a big win, the line is generally impacted in favor of this team the ensuing week. It’s important to keep in mind that letdowns can happen afterward. This is especially true for mediocre to good teams that aren’t quite in elite territory.

However, it can bite any team in the NFL who isn’t prepared, especially on a short week! Thursday Night Football has a knack of sneaking up on teams only days following a signature victory.

Conversely, there is the classic look-ahead spot of favorites having their attention on a more formidable opponent or rivalry matchup the following week. These teams tend to go through the motions and fail to focus on the task at hand!

I always monitor line movement throughout the week for my best NFL underdog picks and other selections. It’s also worth researching where the money is flowing, and which team is seeing the biggest bets.

If the shift isn’t following the bets on a public favorite, bookmakers are confident that they have it right and not the majority of bettors. In some instances, there is reverse line movement, where the odds move against the money.

When making your selections for our free NFL pick’em contest, it’s also worth keeping this important tip in mind!

Additionally, line shop for the best odds across multiple sports betting apps and sites. It can be the difference between winning and losing your best NFL underdog picks this week! Let’s examine a quick example between two popular bookies:

Bovada:

• New England Patriots +8.5 (-115)
• Cincinnati Bengals -8.5 (-105)

BetOnline:

• New England Patriots +9 (-112)
• Cincinnati Bengals -9 (-108)

If you like the Patriots as an underdog, consider placing your bets at BetOnline! Not only are the odds better at -112, but you’re getting an extra 0.5 points on the point spread.

The Sports Geek recommends checking out the odds at these reputable sportsbooks:

• Bovada
• Betwhale
• BetOnline
• BetUS