NFL Team Performance Trends: Week 5 (Fantasy Football)

In this article, I will break down NFL team performances going into Week 5 based on their expected points added (EPA) per play on both offense and defense. Let’s jump right into things.

Offensive Takeaways

The Washington Commanders head the league in offensive efficiency, posting a 0.25 EPA/play on offense. Jayden Daniels is heating up, bringing explosiveness to the ground game, and making stronger passes every week. Look to start your Commanders players in the coming weeks.

The Bengals are back for good. Burrow and Chase have rekindled their connection through the air, and both Cincy running backs looked strong in Week 4. Last week, they stood at 0.12 EPA/play on offense, and the week before 0.01. This consistent improvement is a great sign for fantasy managers.

Buffalo has taken a huge hit, dropping from 0.22 EPA/play on offense last week. While the Bills’ offense couldn’t get it going against the Ravens, look for them to bounce back in Week 5 against the Texans who hold a -0.04 EPA/play on defense.

Kansas City, Philadelphia, and San Francisco are all concerns offensively through four weeks. All sitting at 0.04 EPA/play offensively, they’ve been home to a number of underperforming fantasy players thus far. Keep a keen eye on these teams in the coming weeks to see how they improve/decline.

Chicago improved from -0.15 EPA/play to -0.10 EPA/play since last week. Caleb Williams has improved every week, as has the teams’ fantasy output. With a Week 5 matchup against the Panthers, look to start your Bears pieces in fantasy.

Defensive Takeaways

The Vikings have been phenomenal on the defensive side of the ball thus far, posting 0.17 EPA/play defensively. With a matchup against a struggling Jets offense (-0.01 EPA/play on offense), they should be a strong start for fantasy in Week 5.

While the Patriots have struggled slightly on defense posting -0.04 EPA/play, they face off against the worst offense in the league in the Miami Dolphins, who have posted a -0.22 EPA/play on offense this season. Look for the Patriots’ defense to be a play in Week 5 for fantasy.

The Rams have struggled defensively thus far, putting up a -0.15 EPA/play, which bodes well for Packers fantasy managers in Week 5. As Jordan Love seemed to heat up in the back half of their Week 4 matchup against the Vikings, a bout against a struggling L.A. team is just what he needs to get fully back into his groove. If you are trying to decipher the GB receiving room, it’s been dominated mainly by Jordan Reed, although Dontayvion Wicks picked up 13 targets last Sunday. With Watson’s injury, Wicks could be a strong flex option in fantasy.

The Bengals are another team that has struggled on defense, posting a -0.13 EPA/play this season — look for their matchup with Baltimore to be a shootout this week.

Player Analysis

To wrap things up, let’s take a look at some player profiles.

Chase Brown vs. Zack Moss

It appears Brown might finally be taking the lead in the efficiency battle in the Cincy backfield. He scored two goal-line TDs in Week 4, and is outperforming Moss in EPA/play. Look for him to continue his strong performances in the coming weeks, and for Moss to possibly lose touches.

Kareem Hunt

It looks like Hunt will take over the Kansas City backfield while Pacheco is injured, and for good reason. He posted a 0.11 EPA/play last Sunday, and while he didn’t find the end zone, will likely get more opportunities in Week 5.

Terry McLaurin

Scary Terry had a slow start for fantasy, but in the last two weeks has heated up. A 0.32 EPA/play is uncalled for, and with Jayden Daniels figuring out the passing game, McLaurin could quickly become a must-start.

Dontayvion Wicks

While Wicks saw 13 targets last week, his EPA/play this season is abysmal. With such poor efficiency, it’s hard to believe he will continue to see much opportunity once Christian Watson is healthy.

That’s all for this article, check back next week for more!