NFL Team Performance Trends: Week 4 (Fantasy Football)

In this article, I will break down NFL team performances going into Week 4 based on their expected points added (EPA) per play on both offense and defense. Let’s jump right into things.

Offensive Takeaways

The Bills are ELECTRIC. Even without a clear WR1, Josh Allen is absolutely dealing, and the entire offense is putting up great fantasy numbers. Khalil Shakir, probably the Bills’ most standout option right now in the air is ranked WR35 by the Footballers — Keon Coleman sits at WR60. There being no alpha receiver in the room leaves some space for the ball to be distributed, and the offense to tally numbers for fantasy. Look to start the Bills you have, and consider your Bills receivers as flex plays.

The Commanders are a bit of a surprising number two for offensive EPA/play. While the team has shown out the last couple of outings on offense, this hasn’t translated to much fantasy success outside of Jayden Daniels. Terry McLaurin, ranked WR25 by the Ballers, had his first game scoring over 10 points this season on Monday — maybe it’s time for everyone to heat up. Keep an eye out for Commanders players to perform again in Week 4 for fantasy.

The Saints have regressed quite a bit — after leading the pack offensively last week, they now sit at 0.13 EPA/play, ranking third in the NFL. Their next three games are against the Falcons, Chiefs, and Bucs — is this a window for the regression to continue?

Many people have been worrying about the Chiefs’ offensive output this season — this should put those worries to rest. They rank seventh in offensive EPA/play, and KC players will reflect this in due time in terms of fantasy scoring (*cough* Travis Kelce *cough*).

One last team that is an interesting note is the Los Angeles Rams — despite losing their top two WRs, they are still posting 0.03 EPA/play on offense. This goes to show how incredible Matthew Stafford is, and how we can still rely on backup Rams receivers in fantasy, especially as flex options.

Defensive Takeaways

On the flip side, the Commanders’ defense is abysmal. If you’ve got players going against them, start ’em! For this week, that would be any Arizona Cardinals players!

The Bengals’ defense has struggled immensely as well. As we all saw on Monday night, their D-line cannot create any pressure whatsoever. This week’s matchup against the Panthers will be an interesting one — I wouldn’t go as far as to say to start your Carolina players, but I would definitely consider it.

The Rams and Jaguars are also struggling defensively, posting a -0.18 and a -0.12 EPA/play, respectively. The Rams face the Bears in Week 4, which might be a lucky break for them, but the Jaguars won’t be getting off easy as they get CJ Stroud and the Texans. As Houston looks for a bounce-back week, look to start those skill players in fantasy against the Jacksonville defense.

The Saints, Vikings, and Chargers lead the league in defensive EPA/play. The Saints and Chargers will be truly tested defensively this week, as they play the Falcons and Chiefs, respectively, while the Vikings don’t necessarily get off easy either with a divisional matchup against Green Bay. This week will tell us a lot about these defenses’ legitimacies.

Player Profiles

Finally, let’s check in on some running back profiles to wrap things up.

Najee Harris:

Harris is putting up -0.13 EPA/play, again a disappointment to fantasy owners.

Zack Moss/Chase Brown:

In the battle between Brown and Moss, neither has taken a true edge yet efficiency-wise. Both are solid options for the Bengals, which will likely keep the backfield split for now.

Braelon Allen:

Braelon Allen has been a stud with every opportunity he has had this season — he could be a good bench stash in case Breece Hall gets injured throughout the year.

That’s it for this article, be sure to check back next week for more!