NFL Team Performance Trends: Week 11 (Fantasy Football)

In this article, I will break down NFL team performances going into Week 11 based on their expected points added (EPA) per play on both offense and defense. Let’s jump right into things.

Offensive Takeaways

Miami is looking to be back on track offensively with Tua back at the helm. They are trending to return to where they started the season at a neutral 0 EPA/play. Tyreek Hill has put up consistent numbers (over 10 points in PPR scoring) in three consistent weeks, as has De’Von Achane, who has put up over 20 points in two of his last four weeks.

Arizona has found its stride offensively–while they are likely leveling off around a 0.1 EPA/play this season, this is the mark of a top-performing offense. Kyler Murray, James Conner, and Marvin Harrison Jr. should all be consistent studs moving into the back half of the season.

The Carolina Panthers have shown an uptick in EPA/play offensively. While their season EPA/play average is still low, their cumulative offensive EPA is approaching a neutral level–guys like Jalen Coker, Xavier Legette, and Jonathon Brooks might be great pickups late in the season if you are looking for some high-potential pickups.

The Bears have officially dropped off. After a great start to their season, their EPA/play average is at -0.06, and their cumulative offensive EPA is below 25. Shy away from starting your Bears, and maybe think of trading them in redraft leagues.

The Commanders have cooled off offensively, looking at their sum of offensive EPA this season. Terry McLaurin and Jayden Daniels have been a great combo, but it’s unlikely they’re going to improve any more this season.

The Chargers are improving offensively as we move into the latter half of the season. They’ve reached 0.0 EPA/play offensively, and have a positive cumulative offensive EPA on the year. Justin Herbert has put up strong numbers in recent weeks and is ranked seventh among QBs for Week 11 by the Ballers. The Chargers face the Bengals, who have a -0.08 EPA/play on defense, one of the worst in the league–start your Chargers!

The Cowboys are dead. With Dak gone, there is little hope for this offense to perform. CeeDee Lamb can certainly still produce, but will be at a much lower production with a worse QB–their cumulative offensive EPA numbers have already dropped significantly indicating this. Rico Dowdle will likely be the best option out of this offense.

Defensive Takeaways

The Eagles’ defense has come into its own–their cumulative defensive EPA is through the roof, as their EPA/play has risen to 0.06. This will be a tough test for the Commanders in Week 11.

The Lions, who have been hot on defense all year with an average EPA of 0.09, take on Jacksonville in Week 11, a very favorable matchup for fantasy.

The 49ers’ defense has been mediocre this season, but face a struggling Seattle squad at -0.02 EPA/play offensively. Look for them to perform well in Week 11–the Ballers have them ranked as the sixth defense going into the week.

The Texans’ defense has also been simply average this season, but have a great matchup with Dallas in Week 11. As Dallas’ EPA/play offensively has dropped to -0.06, Houston is a great start in fantasy this week–the Ballers have them at fourth.

*Below you can see the cumulative EPA for every team on offense and defense.

*Below you can see each team’s average offensive and defensive EPA per play.

 

Player Profiles

Tyrone Tracy: Tracy has taken the lead role for the Giants, but hasn’t been as efficient as fantasy owners might have hoped. His 32-yard TD run helped his performance in Week 10 but accounted for over half of his points. It might be too early to trust Tracy in your lineup if you have other options.

Isiah Pacheco: Pacheco has been removed from IR this week and is set to practice ahead of Week 11. While his status for the game is unknown, it might be time for Kareem Hunt managers to consider finding other options. Or should they? Pacheco was pretty inefficient in his limited touches this season, so the Chiefs might continue to use Hunt in the backfield despite his return.

CeeDee Lamb: Lamb has been mediocre this season efficiency-wise, and will not have a big chance to improve with his starting QB out for the season.

George Pickens: Pickens is a WR1. He’s posting insanely high EPA/play numbers and is putting up absurd receiving numbers for a historically un-exciting Steelers offense. He’s the best option in Pittsburgh’s offense, so continue starting him without a doubt.

That’s all for this article, stay tuned for another next week!