NFL Picks Week 4: Ravens Look to Rebound Hosting the Bills

The NFL season has been full of surprises over the first three weeks, making picking the games more difficult than ever. We’ll take a shot at it again this week with a full slate of games scheduled. Five games are featured with the Ravens hosting the Bills as the featured game.

New Orleans Saints versus Atlanta Falcons

In this NFC South matchup, the Saints are coming off a loss to Philadelphia and the Falcons are entering after losing to the Chiefs. New Orleans is “average down” versus “dead” on the Team Strength Oscillator and Atlanta is +20 to +10 on the Power Ranks Indicator. Atlanta is a 2.5-point favorite with the over/under set at 42.5.  The teams have been involved in games on opposite sides of the over/under line with a score prediction of 25-17 in favor of the Falcons. There is a low-confidence underdog value pick (3.5 stars) on New Orleans and an 83 percent winning rate picking the last six Atlanta games. The teams split last year, both winning at home. That trend will end with a New Orleans win in a game “over” the line.

Minnesota Vikings versus Green Bay Packers

In this NFC North battle, the Vikings head to Green Bay undefeated and the Packers sit at 2-1. Both teams are “burning hot” on the Team Strength Oscillator. Green Bay is a 2.5-point favorite with odds of 1.82 to 2.02 with an over/under of 43.5. The teams have been trending in games on opposite sides of the line with a score prediction of 25-22 in favor of the Vikings but with only 34 percent confidence.  The Packers have 4 of their last 5 games as favorites. The teams split last season, each winning on the road.  I like that trend to end with the Packers taking care of business at home but pass on the over/under bet.

Washington Commanders versus Arizona Cardinals

Here’s a game with teams heading in opposite directions. The Commanders are 2-1 and “burning hot” versus 1-2 and “dead” for the Cardinals. Despite the trend, the Cardinals are 3.5-point home favorites with odds of 1.54 to 2.547 with an over/under of 50.5. The teams have been involved in games “over” the line in four of the last six and the score prediction of 29-28 in favor of Washington would place this game over the line. Both teams have been moderately consistent regarding their favorite/underdog status. There is a good underdog value pick (five stars) on Washington. I like Washington to cover the spread. The Cardinals may get by winning with a field goal or less, but don’t be surprised if Washington wins outright. In any event, take Washington +3.5.

Kansas City Chiefs versus Los Angeles Chargers

In this AFC West showdown, the Chiefs come undefeated against the 2-1 Chargers. Kansas City is “burning hot” versus “average down” and +27 to +2 on the Power Ranks Indicator. Kansas City is a 7.5-point road favorite with odds of 1.51 to 2.633 with an over/under of 39.5. The teams have been in games “under” the line in four of the last six, making the seemingly low total reasonable. The Chiefs have won four of the last five as favorites. There is low confidence underdog value pick (3 stars) on the Chargers. The Chiefs won both games between the teams last season with only 73 points scored combined in the contests. I like the Chiefs minus the points in a game “under” the line.

Buffalo Bills versus Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens look to take down the “burning hot” Bills, who enter the contest at 3-0. Baltimore is a 2.5-point home favorite with odds of 1.850 to 1.980 with an over/under of 46.5. The teams have been in games “over” the line in five of six but the score prediction of 21-20 in favor of the Ravens would place this “under” the line. Buffalo is a 5-star underdog value pick, but 5-star underdog value picks are 0-1 this season. Buffalo is +31 to +30 on the Power Ranks Indicator and has been the more stable team at +2 to 0 on the Team Volatility Oscillator. I like Buffalo to cover but the Ravens to win. The Bills have to lose sometime, so why not this week against a Baltimore team that can’t afford to drop to 1-3?