NFL Picks Week 3: Steelers host Chargers in Featured Game

Only nine undefeated teams remain in the NFL entering the season’s third week. The defending Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, are one of those teams heading to play the Atlanta Falcons. The game of the day features the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Los Angeles Chargers, also both undefeated. We will examine that game and four others in a full slate of games.

Houston Texans versus Minnesota Vikings

Both teams come in 2-0 and are “burning hot” on the Team Strength Oscillator. Houston is a slim 1.5-point road favorite with odds of 1.69 to 2.179 and an over/under of 45.5. The score prediction of 27-18 in favor of Houston would be “under” the line, which has been the trend for these two teams early this season.  Good underdog value pick (5 stars) on the Vikings playing at home. Houston has a +30 to +22 edge on the Power Ranks Indicator. Note that Houston has won each of the last five as a favorite. I like that trend to continue in a game “under” the line.

Denver Broncos versus Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Denver is “average down” on the Team Strength Oscillator after an 0-2 start and Tampa Bay is “burning hot” after winning the first two.  The Buccaneers are 6.5-point favorites with odds of 1.31 to 3.375 with an over/under of 41.5. The score prediction is 39-20 in favor of Tampa Bay with only 40 percent confidence, however, the Buccaneers have a 71 percent chance of winning. The teams have been involved in games evenly over/under. There is a low-confidence underdog value pick (3 stars) on Denver. I like Tampa Bay minus the points but pass on the over/under bet.

Baltimore Ravens versus Dallas Cowboys

This game features a very surprising start for the two teams, coming in a combined 1-3. Baltimore is “dead” on the Team Strength Oscillator versus “average down” for Dallas. The Ravens are 0.5-point favorites with odds of 1.8 to 2 and an “over/under” of 47.5. The teams have been involved in games “over” the line and the score prediction of 26-25 in favor of Baltimore would continue the streak. Note that there is a low-confidence underdog value pick for Dallas.  The Ravens have a slight edge on the Power Ranks Indicator. Dallas was extremely tough at home last year, but giving up over 40 last week at home is a red flag. I like the Ravens to get their first win of the season in a game “over” the line.

Los Angeles Chargers versus Pittsburgh Steelers

In the game of the week, both teams enter at 2-0. Pittsburgh is a 1.5-point home favorite with odds of 1.8 to 2 with an over/under of 36.5. The teams have been involved in games “under” the line each game this season with a score prediction of 20-19 in favor of the Chargers with 66 percent confidence. Los Angeles has a +10 to +9 edge on the Power Ranks Indicator and +2 to 0 on the Team Volatility Oscillator. This is the first meeting between the teams since November 2021.  Picking the over is only a two-star value pick. I like the Steelers at home in a game “under” the line.

Kansas City Chiefs versus Atlanta Falcons

The Chiefs keep finding ways to win, entering at 2-0 while outscoring their opponents by only eight points. The Falcons are coming off a shocking win in Philadelphia to go to 1-1 on the season. Kansas City is a 3.5-point road favorite with odds of 1.55 to 2.465 with an over/under of 46.5. The Chiefs have won four of their last five as favorites and 4.5-star value pick as a favorite. The teams have been involved in games on opposite sides of the line with a score prediction of 33-14 in favor of Kansas City. The Falcons have been very inconsistent with regard to their favorite/underdog status. I like the Chiefs to continue to roll, winning by double-digits in a game “over” the line.