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NFL MVP 2024-25 Betting Odds, Predictions, And Picks

August 8, 2024
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The NFL MVP odds for 2024-25 are out, so it’s time for some early predictions. Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens took home the trophy last season, but can he do it again?

With the NFL loaded with elite quarterbacks, the MVP race has never been hotter. And that will be the case again heading into the 2024-2025 season with several top quarterbacks looking for their first ever MVP trophy.

But who is the best value on the board? And which sleeper should everyone keep an eye on this season? Keep reading to find the answers!

NFL MVP 2024-25 Betting Odds

The following NFL MVP odds for 2024-25 are courtesy of Bovada:

PLAYER ODDS
Patrick Mahomes +525
C.J. Stroud +750
Joe Burrow +800
Josh Allen +800
Jordan Love +1000
Brock Purdy +1200
Jared Goff +1400
Jalen Hurts +1600
Aaron Rodgers +1800
Lamar Jackson +1800

There are nine at +2500, including Maxx Crosby and Deebo Samuel, who have an implied probability to win of 3.8%.

Contrast this with betting favorite Patrick Mahomes (+525), who enjoys a 16% chance of winning the NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season. Mahomes’ MVP odds have held strong over the last two weeks at +525.

Lamar Jackson’s (+1800) price slipped from +1400 to +1800 over the last two weeks. Additionally, Justin Herbert (+2500) has taken a beating in the NFL MVP betting markets after regressing from +1600 to +2500! Conversely, Brock Purdy (+1200) has moved up the board from +1500, while public sentiment is up on Joe Burrow (+800) after sitting at +1200 in July.

But who is the best bet on the board for the upcoming season? And who is a sleeper worth watching? Let’s dive into the favorites next.

You can find up-to-date odds to win NFL MVP at Bovada by navigating to All Sports > Football > NFL Awards & League Leaders > Most Valuable Player.

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NFL MVP Betting Favorites for 2024-25

We have a few obvious candidates for the award, according to both the bookmakers and common sense. You simply can’t ignore them when betting on the NFL MVP, so let’s see what they have to offer.

Patrick Mahomes (+525)

In terms of overall value, there isn’t a more valuable quarterback in the NFL than Patrick Mahomes. The three-time Super Bowl champion is the No. 1 player in this position, and he’s been that for the last five seasons.

Mahomes didn’t post huge passing numbers in 2023 and the Chiefs were “just” the No. 3 seed in the AFC. But with the potential of better weapons around him in 2024, Mahomes could see a huge boost in passing production.

The 28-year-old spent the offseason unwinding in Europe with his family. He made stops in several locations, including Portugal and Spain, before training camp opens. Mahomes should be fresh and ready for another standout season in the AFC West.

Given that he is the NFL’s top quarterback, it only makes sense that he is the current favorite. He’s going to win another MVP award at some point. The only question is if it’s this year or later down the road.

Public sentiment has improved on Mahomes’ 2024-25 NFL MVP odds, as he’s become a larger favorite over the last few months. However, they have settled in at +525 after improving from +600 in May. With no major news to report on Mahomes, he will likely open the regular season as a +525 to win the NFL’s MVP award.

In addition to high MVP aspirations, Mahomes and the Chiefs are favorites to win the 2025 AFC Championship to head back to the Super Bowl! A winning football team is a solid recipe for winning the league MVP.

C.J. Stroud (+750)

After a sensational rookie season, Texans’ quarterback C.J. Stroud looks to follow up with more success in 2024-25. He passed for 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns, and five interceptions.

The newcomer finished with a stellar 100.8 QB rating, and was honored with the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award.

Now, Stroud is among the favorites to win the league MVP! The Texans’ front office went to work in the offseason to give their young prospect more weapons.

Diggs arrives in Houston to bolster an already potent offense. The Texans finished 12th in the NFL with an average of 342.4 yards per game, so there is room to grow with Stroud and Diggs together.

As well as Diggs, Stroud has another season with Nico Collins and Tank Dell. Stroud put up monster numbers as a rookie behind one of the most inconsistent offensive lines in football. Any improvement from the line puts the Texans and Stroud in a terrific position to win the NFL MVP!

Diggs and Stroud are already developing a strong rapport in training camp. I expect them to be ready to fire off the ball like a well-oiled machine come Week 1 against the Indianapolis Colts.

With the top AFC South odds, the Texans are expected to have yet another strong campaign. There is certainly the possibility of a sophomore slump, but Stroud has all the tools and weapons at his disposal to avoid regressing in 2024-25.

Josh Allen (+800)

Bills QB’ Josh Allen has seen modest gains for the NFL MVP 2024-25 on sports betting apps. Currently, he has the third-best price to win the MVP at +800, a small difference from July’s price of +775!

You can make a strong case that Allen should have won the award last season after scoring 46 touchdowns and leading the Bills to the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Allen had an incredible late-season surge and found himself in the MVP conversation. I expect more of the same, because he is one of the NFL’s most dynamic quarterbacks and should have no problem posting gaudy numbers again.

This is in spite of Stefon Diggs’ departure from Buffalo. He was traded to the Houston Texans in April in exchange for a second-round 2025 NFL Draft pick. Nevertheless, Diggs appeared checked out on this team late in the season.

Look for tight end Dalton Kincaid to have a breakout campaign in his second year in the NFL. Furthermore, rookie receiver Keon Coleman should make a big impact from the opening jump. Kincaid has a strong opportunity to be the next dominant tight end in the NFL! He’s been having a solid camp, and should mold into a monster weapon for Allen this season.

Another reason why Allen is a good bet this year is due to the fact that voters might feel like it’s time to reward him for so many great seasons. It’s unclear why Allen didn’t get more votes last season for the MVP award (only one of 50 votes), but now he’s established himself as the second-best quarterback in the NFL behind only Patrick Mahomes.

If Allen can post a similar season and if the Bills can win 11+ games, look for him to finally take home the MVP honors.

Joe Burrow (+800)

Burrow’s NFL MVP odds have been one of the biggest movers over the last month. His odds have steadily shortened throughout the summer. Last month, Burrow had +1200 odds to capture his first MVP.

As bettors see that Burrow is healthy enough to spin the ball at an elite level, the money is pouring in on the Bengals’ signal caller! Burrow is widely regarded as one of the NFL’s top quarterbacks, but injuries have caused him to miss out on the MVP discussions.

He was never fully healthy in 2023, dealing with a severe calf strain and then injuring his hand midway through the season, which required surgery.

When Burrow is healthy, he is one of the best pocket passers in the league. I expect him to return with vengeance this season as the Bengals have one of the better overall rosters in the AFC. Can Burrow stay healthy long enough to make a push for the award? That is a real question that bettors will need to keep in mind.

Over the last four months, it has been a roller coaster for Burrow’s NFL MVP betting odds. In March, Burrow was a +900, fell to +1200, and then progressively shortened back down to +800, or an 11.1% implied chance, through the summer.

This is after Burrow wasn’t limited and had no setbacks in OTAs. This has continued through training camp, with Burrow showing no signs of the injury in summer practice leading up to the Bengals’ first preseason game.

Best NFL MVP Award Sleepers in 2024-25

The NFL MVP award usually goes to a big-name quarterback on a great team. However, there have been several longshots over the last few seasons to take home this award. Here are some of the best sleepers to win the MVP award and their respective odds.

  1. One of the trends that we’ve seen in the NFL over the last few seasons is that MVP voters reward quarterbacks on great teams. It’s pretty rare for an MVP winner to be on a team that isn’t the No. 1 or No. 2 seed.

    Goff’s MVP odds have been on a meteoric rise over the last month. His price has skyrocketed from +3500 to +1400 in just weeks!

    And that’s what Jared Goff has going for him entering the 2024 season. The Lions could be the top team in the NFC and are only improving under Dan Campbell.

    Goff posted great numbers during the 2023 season, but the development of Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams, and Jahymr Gibbs should make the offense even more dynamic this year. Goff should post big numbers again, especially with Ben Johnson returning as the offensive coordinator.

    Although there isn’t as much value on Goff to win MVP now, he should be in contention behind a Lions team that can win the 2025 NFC Championship!

  2. Richardson is coming off a shoulder injury that caused him to miss most of his rookie season. However, in his small sample size from 2023, it’s clear that Richardson’s ceiling is endless. He is the most physically gifted quarterback in the league and his rushing ability should allow him to have success right away.

    The Colts were nearly a playoff team last season with Gardner Minshew starting the majority of the games at QB. With the roster expected to be even better in 2024, Richardson could have a ton of success in Year 2. It’s still a bit of a reach to expect him to win an MVP, but we’ve seen Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson both make big leaps in Year 2 and go on to win the MVP award.

  3. The second year of Trevor Lawrence in Doug Pederson’s offense didn’t go as planned as he dealt with several injuries that caused him to regress as a passer. But there is no doubting Lawrence’s talent and the Jaguars look ready to get back into the playoff hunt in 2024. Lawrence is as talented as any other QB in the NFL, and it’s only a matter of time before he wins an MVP award.

    Keep an eye on what the Jaguars do this offseason as they need to improve the weapons and the offensive line around Lawrence. If they can accomplish that, expect to see a huge jump in the MVP odds for the former No. 1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

2024-25 NFL MVP Prediction and Betting Pick

There are several intriguing options for the MVP award this season and a few sleepers worth mentioning. It’s hard to ever bet against Patrick Mahomes considering he’s the best QB in the league and he’s already won the award twice. But there isn’t a lot of value on him right now and the Chiefs might not want to overwork him in the regular season for an award that he’s already won.

That leaves the door open for Josh Allen, who has been the AFC’s second-best quarterback for several years now. The Bills have gutted a lot of their roster this offseason in order to pay Allen, but that is a wise decision. He can carry the offense and has shown that he can be the reason why the Bills go deep into the playoffs.

The Bet
Josh Allen
+800
Wager at Bovada

Who Are You Backing in the NFL MVP Race?

I expect a tight race between Mahomes and Allen for the most prestigious individual award in football, and the NFL MVP odds for 2024-25 reflect that. Still, you should keep an eye on Burrow and some of the young guns.

Who are you backing this year? Even if you don’t see your favorite in the odds above, that’s because I only cut the list to the top 10 players. Bovada, one of the best sites for NFL betting online, features many more, so visit the sportsbook to place your wager and get a welcome bonus of up to $1,000 in the process!


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