NFL Monday Night Football Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers Same Game Parlay at +632 odds

We’ve got a pretty consequential matchup in the NFC in Week 17 of the NFL season on Monday Night Football. The Detroit Lions are traveling to San Francisco to take on the 49ers in a showdown that figures to factor into the NFC playoff picture, particularly in the Lions’ quest for the top seed in the conference. The 49ers season is over at this point, but this is still a very talented squad that is hoping to play spoiler after being eliminated from the NFC playoff picture a week ago. 

Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 8:15 pm ET on ESPN. Also be sure to check out our full Lions vs 49ers predictions.

Lions -3.5 (+100)

Over 50.5 (-110)

Sam LaPorta anytime touchdown scorer (+200)

Parlay odds: +632

Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay is that all of its components can be correlated, if you so choose. That is the entire plan here, as the Lions winning this game could come in a variety of ways, but most likely would play out with a game script that shades to the over and involves tight end Sam LaPorta. Ultimately, I like the value that this prop adds to our SGP so let’s break down each of these legs.

Lions -3.5 (+100) 

This line feels like a bit too much respect for a downtrodden 49ers team that just lost to the mediocre Dolphins a week ago, and will be missing All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams in this contest. San Francisco has failed to cover the spread in 6 of its last 7 contests, and I wouldn’t expect that to change on Monday against a Lions team that is suddenly in-form once again following a convincing victory over Chicago a week ago. Despite the fact that with the Vikings win over Green Bay on Sunday, all eyes are now on next week’s matchup to determine the #1 seed in the NFC and the NFC North division winner, there’s no reason to believe that a Dan Campbell led-roster won’t show up ready to play in this one. Detroit still likely has vengeance on its minds following last season’s NFC title game loss, and based on 16 weeks of evidence, I simply don’t feel that San Francisco has the manpower or skill to hold the Lions back.

Over 50.5 (-110)

The Lions’ defensive woes have been well-talked about in recent weeks, and for good reason. After all, Detroit is in a world of trouble defensively, with games involving the Lions averaging 69 points per game over the last 3 weeks. For the season, Ben Johnson’s offense is 1st in points per game, and ranks inside the top 5 in every major offensive category except for 4th down conversion rate, where they’re ranked 6th. A banged-up Niners’ defense that is 24th in 3rd down defense and 30th in opponent touchdown rate in the red zone is no match for the energy and output that Detroit can bring on a week-to-week basis, and the Lions should have extra fuel on Monday given the revenge angle at hand. We’ve seen little evidence from either of these teams that this will be a low-scoring affair, so let’s take the over in the Bay Area.

Sam LaPorta anytime touchdown scorer (+200)

While the Lions have a number of players that can beat you at the skill positions, there is something to be said for the connection that Jared Goff has with tight end Sam LaPorta. In fact, following a slow start to his second season, LaPorta only trails Browns tight end David Njoku in terms of red zone targets amongst all players at the position. Over these past 5 games, the former Iowa product has scored on 3 occasions, with 2 of those touchdowns coming in the red zone. It’s clear that LaPorta is a security blanket for Goff around the end zone, as he’s often available in the middle of the field and on underneath routes for Goff to quickly get him the ball in space. Let’s add some value to our SGP with a LaPorta touchdown.

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