NFL DFS Vegas Report for Wild Card Weekend (Fantasy Football)

NFL DFS tournaments are all about finding ceiling performance from players in our lineup. In order to maximize upside and correlation, we can use Vegas totals and game lines to help us identify game environments that may help produce these ceiling performances we’re looking for in GPPs. The goal of this article each week is to identify which games are most likely to provide the scoring environment we’re looking for in order to build game stacks in DFS. Similarly, this article will look at games that may either disappoint or are less likely to result in fantasy success.

On the surface, it sounds simple, but there’s more to this process than simply logging into a sportsbook and picking the games with the highest total. We need to be conscious of which games are likely to be most popular for DFS, which may be undervalued, and those that have more downside than the market perceives. Every Tuesday on the Fantasy Footballers DFS Podcast, we give a “state of the main slate” which briefly highlights some of the findings in this article. For the full look, make sure you get in on The Ultimate DFS Pass and check out Kyle’s First Look Pricing for Wild Card Weekend.

Note: Lines taken below from DraftKings Sportsbook are accurate at the time of publishing.

Team Implied Totals for Wild Card Weekend

1. Dallas Cowboys: 29.0

2. Detroit Lions: 27.5

T3. Kansas City Chiefs: 24.0 

T3. Los Angeles Rams: 24.0

T5. Philadelphia Eagles: 23.5

T5. Cleveland Browns: 23.5

7. Buffalo Bills: 23.3

8. Green Bay Packers: 21.5

9. Houston Texans: 21.0

10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 20.5

11. Miami Dolphins: 20.0

12. Pittsburgh Steelers: 13.3 – For context, the Steelers’ team total is the third-lowest for any playoff game since 2000.

Saturday Slate

Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans, CLE -2.5, O/U: 44.5

Super WildCard Weekend kicks off Saturday afternoon when the #5 seed Browns travel to Houston to take on the AFC South champs. This is a rematch from Week 16 when Flacco and Amari Cooper broke the slate en route to a 36-22 victory. Since Flacco got off the couch, the Browns are 4-1 (excluding Week 18 when starters rested) while averaging 28.6 points per game, the fourth-best mark in football. Not surprisingly, their games are 4-1 to the over in that sample with Flacco among the league leaders in drop backs.

Want to read the rest of this article?

Get the Ultimate DFS Pass from The Fantasy Footballers for instant access. Expert advice, weekly picks, premium reports, trusted & award-winning weekly resources.

Get the Ultimate DFS Pass

Already have the DFS Pass? Login to access