It is the final divisional breakdown as Andy, Mike, and Jason discuss the NFC West. As we conclude the series for another year, remember that this is a general overview of the teams. The guys will discuss offseason changes from 2023 to 2024 (i.e., players, rookies, and coaches), give an overview of last year’s offense and how it might function this season, and give some of their takes on win totals and who could win the division.
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Here we go!
Let’s Get Divisional – NFC West
This division is pretty much a re-roll this season, at least when it comes to fantasy purposes, with minimal turnover on the skills position. The NFC West spent the least amount on free agency among all eight divisions in the NFL. All four NFC West teams are lumped together in Warren Sharp’s strength of schedule projection, from 15th hardest to 18th hardest.
San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
The Niners are favored in all 17 games they are playing this season, and the team has kept the majority of the team together with the hopes of finally breaking through to win the Super Bowl. We know how Kyle Shanahan works with an efficient and effective offense, and Christian McCaffrey continues to be a massive part of that – he will be the best player in your league if he stays healthy.
The team added WR Ricky Pearsall, RB Isaac Guerendo, and WR Jacob Cowing, improving their overall depth. If there is a problem in the Bay Area, it is contractual. The Brandon Aiyuk saga continues, Trent Williams is holding out, and they will have to pay QB Brock Purdy soon. Drafters know what to do with most of these weapons; the only one who could raise questions is George Kittle.
Andy is okay with Kittle’s draft price, and even though you will not get the consistency of the top guys, he will win you weeks. Jason stands firmly that Brock Purdy is not respected enough, as he finished as the QB6 last year. His TD percentage should regress slightly, but the guys aren’t scared and still see him as a fantastic draft value.
Vegas predicts 11.5 wins for the Niners this season.
Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
The Rams surprised many last year, winning significantly more than their projected 6.5 win total. Fantasy managers witnessed the breakout of RB Kyren Williams and the unrepeatable rookie season of Puka Nacua. The team drafted Blake Corum, and there is much chatter about how he will fit in.
There is room for Williams to have help and rest while remaining an elite back, but he must remain efficient. Health is an issue, but Jason is firmly on the side of Kyren being a true workhorse back. Sean McVay is a one-RB type of guy, with Kyren taking 37% of the Rams’ RB workload in his 12 games played. He is a great pick.
Can Puka repeat? He had the most receptions, receiving yards, and first downs of a rookie WR ever, but drafters might be nervous about whether or not he can put up a repeat performance. The guys understand why, especially if Kyren is also on the board at that point. Cooper Kupp continues to be a big fan of breakfast with Matthew Stafford, and he is one of the most efficient when it comes to the red zone. There is also hidden value in Demarcus Robinson, the “other” WR.
Mike reminds us to remember the TE position in Los Angeles – Tyler Higbee tore his ACL and MCL in the playoffs, so there is a spot up for grabs. If you follow the money, it might be Colby Parkinson. Jason is looking at Davis Allen.
Vegas predicts 8.5 wins for the Rams this season.
Seattle Seahawks (9-8)
Seattle bid farewell to Pete Carroll and is the only team in the division with a new head coach. Andy is concerned that the team will suffer without him there. Last year, they were dead last in time of possession and had the second-lowest of any team in the previous five years. The team added OC Ryan Grubb fresh from Washington, and it is TBD whether he can make the jump to the NFL and have his skills translate.
Geno Smith only had four top-12 finishes in 2024 after an incredible season the year before, but it is uncertain how much he will course correct. JSN has had a slow start, and Tyler Lockett‘s YPRR and yards per target have dropped in three consecutive seasons. If you are going with a Seattle WR, it’s DK Metcalf, who is being drafted at his floor and could pay off incredibly well.
The offensive line in Seattle is now ranked 31st with the least amount of money spent on it in the NFL. This could be an issue with protecting the RBs – Kenneth Walker seems very game script dependent, and Zach Charbonnet has been a solid ok. Noah Fant is still a TE.
Vegas predicts 7.5 wins for the Seahawks this season.
Arizona Cardinals (4-13)
The Joshua Dobbs experiment during the first half of the season for the Cardinals was rough, but the team played extremely hard for HC Jonathan Gannon and even pulled off some upsets. When Kyler Murray returned, the difference was drastic in all the stats, finishing 3-4. With the addition of rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. and Zay Jones and the emergence of Trey McBride, their offense should be much more potent.
Rondale Moore and Hollywood Brown depart, and Desmond Ridder arrives. The talk of the town is Harrison being drafted too high – his draft capital is up there, and you could be easily disappointed even if he has a strong season. You are paying the price if you draft him.
Kyler’s ADP seems like a steal this year with his rushing upside – he was the QB9 in points per game from Week 10 on. Over the last three years, Kyler has been a top-12 QB 61% of the time, the fifth-highest rate for that metric.
Vegas predicts 6.5 wins for the Cardinals this season.
Who Wins the Division?
Andy and Mike see the division ending – 49ers, Rams, Cardinals, then the Seahawks. Jason varies slightly with the Rams, 49ers, Cardinals, and Seahawks.
https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/analysis/nfc-west-divisional-podcast-recap-for-2024-fantasy-football/
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