Andy and Jason continue their trip around the NFL, identifying all the fantasy-relevant changes in the NFC South.
Can Baker and the Bucs repeat their success from last season? What can we expect from this new-look Falcons team? Will Chris Olave finish as a WR1? Can Dave Canales actually fix Bryce Young? The questions bear asking, and with a new OC on every team, this is one of the most exciting divisions heading into the ’24 season.
Let’s dive in!
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Let’s Get Divisional – NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8)
Player Additions: WR Sterling Shepard
Player Subtractions: N/A
Rookies: WR Jalen McMillan (Round 3), RB Bucky Irving (Round 4)
2023 Offensive Ranks
| PPG | Pass Att | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Rush Att | Rush Yards | Rush TDs |
| 18 | 19 | 18 | 10 | 23 | 32 | 28 |
The Baker-led Bucs exceeded all fantasy (and real-life) expectations in ’23, ending an impressive late-season run with a heartbreaking loss to the Lions in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Previously left for dead by the NFL (and fantasy communities), Baker put up the best season of his career in completion percentage (64.3%), passing yards (4,044), and touchdowns (28), leading to a three-year, $115 million extension. The Bucs lost OC Dave Canales to the Panthers but replaced him with new OC Liam Coen, who has experience with Baker from their time on the Rams.
Rachaad White broke all analytical models with one of the least efficient top-10 seasons an RB has ever produced. His 3.64 YPC represented the lowest metric a top-15 RB has recorded in the past five seasons, however, where he excelled was in the receiving game. White finished the season fourth among RBs in receptions, third in receiving yards, and first in routes run. The addition of rookie RB Bucky Irving muddies the backfield slightly, but at 5’9″ and 195 pounds, Irving brings a similar skill set to White and presents little threat to red zone touches.
The Bucs’ WR core leaves just nine vacated targets from last year, the lowest number in the league. They are running it back one more time with stud WR Mike Evans, along with the forgotten Chris Godwin. Evans continues to make his Hall of Fame run with another dominant season, finishing WR5 overall in ’23. He will serve as Baker’s top target earner and red zone threat once again, but the larger discussion remains with Godwin on how he will be used.
Godwin continues to be an underrated fantasy asset, posting 80+ receptions and 1,000+ yards in four of the past five seasons. After posting above 50% slot snaps for each of the past four years, he curiously played just 32.1% from the slot last year, resulting in one of his lowest fantasy finishes in that timeframe (WR30). The coaching staff has already confirmed his move back into the slot for this season, presenting possible value for a player currently being drafted at WR37.
For a deep dive into Chris Godwin’s Path to a WR1 season, check out the article from our very own Matt Savoca!
Rookie WR Jalen McMillan and second-year WR Trey Palmer will duke it out for the third WR role on this offense, while TE Cade Otton somehow only posted one game above nine fantasy points, despite running the second-most routes at the position. He did seem to earn the trust of Baker as time went on, converting 13 of 19 targets for 154 yards and a touchdown during their two-game playoff run, but he is nothing more than a mid-range streaming option at this point.
Vegas predicts 8.5 wins for the Bucs this season.
Every Mike Evans regular season TD from 2023-24: pic.twitter.com/KeM5Gj8A3w
— Carter Donnick (@CDonnick1) July 23, 2024
New Orleans Saints (9-8)
Player Additions: WR Cedrick Wilson Jr.
Player Subtractions: QB Jameis Winston, WR Michael Thomas, TE Jimmy Graham
Rookies: QB Spencer Rattler (Round 5), WR Bub Means (Round 5)
2023 Offensive Ranks
| PPG | Pass Att | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Rush Att | Rush Yards | Rush TDs |
| 10 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 21 | 18 |
The Saints continue aiming for the middle, somehow signing off on one more year of Head Coach Dennis Allen, and holding firm their place at the bottom of the league in cap space every year.
The lone optimism regarding New Orleans’ 2024 season will be new OC Klint Kubiak. The son of longtime Head Coach Gary Kubiak, Klint comes most recently from the brilliant minds in San Francisco, and he will now replace one of the least creative offenses in the NFL. We know what we have in Derek Carr at this point, but it’s worth noting that Carr finished the season strong, leading the league with 12 passing touchdowns over the final four games. Kubiak has promised to “evolve” this offense into something more modern, but he will be facing an uphill battle for a number of reasons.
Barring a long-term holdout from RB Alvin Kamara, this backfield will look exactly the same, with Kendre Miller fighting for the number two role over one of my favorite players in the league, Jamaal Williams. From Week 4 on (after his suspension), Kamara posted career lows in YPC (3.9), yards per target (5.4), and yards per touch (4.5), yet still finished as the RB4 overall in that timeframe. The Saints enter the season with PFF’s 32nd (also known as last) ranked offensive line, so whoever is on the field may struggle to find running room and will need to rely on their receiving skill set to produce high-end fantasy numbers. This bodes well for the “checkdown machine” Kamara, currently being drafted at RB17 and offering incredible value as a high-end RB2 in PPR leagues.
Jamaal Williams is too funny
pic.twitter.com/hzBpH2my7R— Barstool NOLA (@BarstoolNOLA) June 8, 2024
WR Chris Olave built on his impressive young resume with the WR19 overall finish in ’23. Although this wasn’t the high-end WR1 season many were predicting, he joined an elite group of players with a 2.23 YPRR in his first two seasons (Mike Evans had 2.22, for reference), and earned an “A” in consistency with 71% of his games above 10.5 fantasy points. The dynasty community is slamming the table for Olave, but one has to wonder how much he can improve on these already impressive numbers, given the same supporting cast this season.
The rest of the WR room is comprised of speedster Rashid Shaheed and a camp battle between AT Perry, Cedrick Wilson, and rookie Bub Means. Shaheed has become one of the most hyped sleepers in the fantasy community, with three top-12 weeks (as many as Chris Olave) and five top-24 weeks (as many as George Pickens) last season. Shaheed’s name has risen steadily in best ball leagues, and was one of the most polarizing picks in Scott Fish Bowl 14 drafts, due to his kick return numbers.
TE Juwan Johnson finished the season strong with three straight TE1 games, but recently required foot surgery, and is hopeful for a Week 1 return. This could lead to more touches for the most aggravating player in fantasy history: Taysom Hill. It remains to be seen how Kubiak will use the Swiss army knife, but there is no reason to believe we won’t see Hill lining up at all positions once again, after scoring five rushing touchdowns on 19 attempts over the final nine games of the season.
Vegas predicts 7.5 wins for the Saints this season.
Chris Olave got some of the best hands in the league
pic.twitter.com/qWVqEOHV7T
— Football’s Greatest Moments (@FBGreatMoments) July 21, 2024
Atlanta Falcons (7-10)
Player Additions: QB Kirk Cousins, WR Darnell Mooney, WR Rondale Moore
Player Subtractions: QB Desmond Ridder, RB Cordarrelle Patterson, TE Jonnu Smith, WR Van Jefferson, WR Mack Hollins
Rookies: QB Michael Penix (Round 1)
2023 Offensive Ranks
| PPG | Pass Att | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Rush Att | Rush Yards | Rush TDs |
| 16 | 25 | 22 | 26 | 3 | 9 | 16 |
The Falcons have finally escaped the wrath of HC Arthur Smith but still had possibly the most dramatic offseason of any team.
After passing on first ballot Hall of Fame coach, Bill Belichick, the team instead brought in HC Raheem Morris for his second stint, followed shortly after by new OC Zac Robinson. Both coaches come from the Rams and the ever-expanding Sean McVay coaching tree.
After years of egotistical coaching and difficult-to-watch QB play, the Falcons outbid the Vikings for the services of QB Kirk Cousins on a lucrative four-year deal. They then brought in an underrated WR in Darnell Mooney, rounding out a talented, young, offensive core. With an aging QB, strong defense, and weak division, many thought the Falcons were preparing for a Super Bowl run until they shocked the world again with their number eight overall pick in the draft: 24-year-old QB Michael Penix. This pick was so shocking in fact, that even Falcons’ owner Arthur Blank had no idea what was going on.
Falcons GM Terry Fontenot explaining himself to owner Arthur Blank why they selected Michael Penix
Will this go down as one of the worst draft day picks ever?
— KLSFootball (@klsfootball) April 26, 2024
Indulge me here for a moment.
The Falcons have had four straight seasons with top-10 picks. With the previous three picks, they selected Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson. Nobody will refute those picks, as all of those players have shown extremely high upside in their young careers. What astounds me, however, is that while they built this team of young, offensive-skill players on rookie contracts, they made absolutely no attempt to ever bring in a top-tier QB. Lamar Jackson is available for trade, you say? No interest.
Yet now, when things finally appear to be turning around. When the coaching changes have been made. When the roster looks deep. When the division is up for grabs. When they’ve paid the QB, and still have another top-10 pick, what do they do?
They select another QB.
This team couldn’t be bothered to put an even halfway decent QB on the field for years, yet today, they can’t get enough of them. Despite glaring needs (like CB), and in an absolutely stacked draft class – including WR Rome Odunze – they drafted someone who will be sitting on the bench for somewhere between the next two to four years. Call it what you want, but the NFL community is collectively shaking their heads at this decision.
Only time will tell, however, as this is the same community that scoffed at Green Bay when they traded up for QB Jordan Love.
#Bears GM Ryan poles reaction to the Atlanta falcons drafting Michael Penix at Pick #8 pic.twitter.com/N1ed64QX86
— Gustavo
(@RealGusUSA) Anywho, I digress.
With these changes, we can likely expect positive…changes. We can expect more opportunities for superstar players. We can expect a more efficient and high-scoring offense. We can expect top-10 NFL picks to receive actual touches in Week 1 of your fantasy playoffs. Ya know, the usual stuff.
Although it felt like a letdown at times, Bijan Robinson finished RB9 on the year, despite receiving only 50.6% of the team’s RB touches. He somehow still finished sixth at the position in yards from scrimmage, and excelled in all receiving metrics, coming in fourth in receiving yards and second in routes run at the position. With PFF’s sixth-ranked offensive line heading into ’24, any increase in Bijan’s usage can safely project him as a top-three RB in 2024.
With Zac Robinson as the passing game coordinator in L.A., Puka Nacua recorded the most receptions (105) and receiving yards (1,486) by a rookie in NFL history, building on the narrative for Drake London‘s potential breakout year. London has played well in his first two seasons, but not well enough to overcome the horrid QB play he’s been provided. Although he’s received a solid 26.4% target share over the past two years, he’s only converted that into eight top-24 finishes and just six total touchdowns. With that said, his play-making ability has been on display, and we’re expecting big things from London this season.
If you’re looking for a deeper dive on Drake London, check out Jack Reinhart’s breakdown on his Path to a WR1 Fantasy Season!
On the other side of the field, the Falcons brought in WR Darnell Mooney on a sizable contract. Although Mooney will never be a WR1, he does present a field-stretching option with big play potential. If Mooney remains healthy, he could bring week-winning streaming and best ball value. Plus, being just two years removed from a 1,000-yard season in Chicago, his ceiling is much higher than the WR71 price tag he currently sits at.
Along with London will be the hopeful re-emergence of TE Kyle Pitts. Overshadowed by the talents of unstoppable forces like Jonnu Smith and Cordarrelle Patterson last season, Pitts has the chance to return the value on yet another top-10 pick the Falcons spent on him (for the record, Ja’Marr Chase was the pick after Pitts). Pitts had over 1,000 yards receiving his rookie year (a feat considered historic before Sam LaPorta came along), and Cousins has a history of peppering his TEs, most recently including TJ Hockenson. Pitts finished fourth among TEs in fantasy points from the slot last season, which is a trend we can expect to continue as this team quickly evolves into one of the most exciting offenses in the sport.
According to Warren Sharp, the Falcons have the easiest strength of schedule heading into the ’24 season. Could this finally be the year in Hotlanta?
Vegas predicts 9.5 wins for the Falcons this season.
Drake London is showing out despite a bad mix of circumstances on the Falcons
Buy his stock now
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) December 13, 2023
Carolina Panthers (2-15)
Player Additions: WR Diontae Johnson
Player Subtractions: WR DJ Chark, WR Laviska Shenault
Rookies: WR Xavier Legette (Round 1), RB Jonathon Brooks (Round 2), TE Ja’Tavion Sanders (Round 4)
2023 Offensive Ranks
| PPG | Pass Att | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Rush Att | Rush Yards | Rush TDs |
| 31 | 13 | 32 | 31 | 19 | 20 | 31 |
If I’m going to rant about the Atlanta ownership, it’s only fair to bring up the #DavidTepperDictatorship. Despite being one of the most successful investors and businessmen in the world, the Panthers’ owner has displayed nothing but childish and selfish behavior during his time with the team, embodying the team’s performance during that same timeframe.
THIS IS F*CKING CRAZY: #Panthers owner David Tepper reportedly THREW HIS DRINK at #Jaguars fans sitting in front of him.
I’ve never seen this before.
pic.twitter.com/oF94iRgQgh— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) December 31, 2023
There is reason for hope in the Carolinas, however, as Dave Canales (formerly of the Bucs) represents the fourth head coach this team will have in the past five years. Widely respected as a QB whisperer, Canales has brought some of the most successful seasons to Russell Wilson, Geno Smith, and Baker Mayfield. He now takes on a new task, with 2023 number-one overall pick, Bryce Young.
Young was the number-one overall pick in the ’23 draft but was put in a nearly impossible situation last year. The team traded a lot of assets to move up for him but left themselves with very little talent on either side of the ball. With PFF’s 29th-ranked offensive line and a 32-year-old Adam Thielen as his number-one receiving option, Young faced pressure on 42% of his dropbacks last season, with 18% of them resulting in sacks or throwaways. Young is known for his accuracy, but even when he was able to put the ball where it needed to be, it felt like the team was doing everything in their power to ensure it could never be ruled a catch.
I mean what is even happening here, Jonathan Mingo?
This looks really bad…. #Panthers rookie 2nd round receiver Jonathan Mingo REFUSED to catch the ball in bounds
— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) November 28, 2023
The Panthers went straight to work this offseason, rebuilding their offense by first making a savvy trade for an elite separator in Diontae Johnson, then drafting a first-round receiver in Xavier Legette. They also spent over $150 million in free agency, signing two of the top guards to help bolster their line and protect their franchise QB. They drafted TE Ja’Tavion Sanders in the fourth round and made a splash by trading up (ahead of the Cowboys) to select RB Jonathon Brooks in Round 2.
There are low expectations for the Panthers from a football perspective, however, this team presents a surprising amount of value for fantasy football. While RB Miles Sanders has deservingly become an afterthought (and a potential cut candidate), RB Chuba Hubbard surprised us all as the RB9 between Weeks 12-18 last season. While the rookie Jonathon Brooks rehabs from an ACL tear (currently on the PUP), Hubbard may once again be the bell cow to start the season. Given what we saw with Rachaad White last season, we could be in for another pleasant surprise from Canales, and assuming a positive game script nearly every week, we can expect a few extra receptions to follow. With a current ADP of RB43, Chuba could be an absolute steal for the first half of the season, while the same could be said for Brooks (RB27) in the second half, as he likely will be eased into action.
“I’m excited to prove to you how stubborn I can be in the run game.” – Dave Canales
While Thielen has shown he is still a competent, sure-handed WR, he now faces a lot more competition for targets in this receiving room. Diontae Johnson steps in as the immediate alpha and is the favorite to lead this team in targets. Finishing 2023 ranked 11th in ESPN’s “Open Score,” Diontae is exactly what a young, accurate QB needs and that is why the Panthers went out and traded for him. Coming off the board at WR42, Johnson is one of the lowest-drafted WR1s (on their team) in recent memory.
WR Xavier Legette represents a very high ceiling and very low floor for his career, being drafted with the latest breakout age of any first-round WR in the last decade. You hate to see that if you’re an analytical fantasy manager, however, it’s worth noting that Canales told him before the draft that if he was there, they would be taking him. And they did. Regardless of what the metrics say, Canales got his guy.
The TE room of Ian Thomas, Tommy Tremble, and Ja’Tavion Sanders is one to continue avoiding in redraft leagues. Although Sanders is obviously the future, TE is arguably the hardest position to learn in football, and a low-end TE2 is likely the ceiling for this season.
A Charlotte restaurant put up a sign saying, “Please let the Coach & GM pick this year.”
Panthers Owner David Tepper was not happy about it
pic.twitter.com/XIlOirlT5L— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) April 26, 2024
Vegas predicts 4.5 wins for the Panthers this season.
https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/analysis/nfc-south-divisional-podcast-recap-for-2024-fantasy-football/
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