NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight: Best First Basket Scorer Bets

The 76ers and Pacers collide at Gainbridge Fieldhouse this afternoon. It should be a quality matchup between two playoff teams in the East. On the opening tip, I expect the 76ers to get control of the ball with Andre Drummond.

The 6’11” Drummond is one of the better jump ball centers in the NBA. He is off to a perfect start at center court for the 76ers. Drummond won both opening tip offs in the Sixers first two games this season. Last season, he was efficient as well, with Drummond holding a 71.43% win rate on jump balls.

The best value on the 76ers’ side to score the first basket has to be on Kelly Oubre Jr. at +600! Oubre Jr. has developed into a go-to option for the 76ers alongside Tyrese Maxey. He is off to a quick start with 24.5 points per game through two matchups.

Oubre Jr. was hot against the Raptors, with 28 points on 9-17 shooting. He was in great shape from three on 50% shooting on six attempts. At +600, Oubre Jr. is a top play for your first NBA basket prop bets!

The Trail Blazers’ Jerami Grant is equally a strong pick for your NBA first scorer bets today. Grant has made a splash out of the gate for the Blazers this season. He enters with 25 points per game on 41.5% shooting from the field through two showings.

Jerami Grant tonight:

34 PTS
6 REB
3 BLK
8 3P

First Blazer ever with that statline. pic.twitter.com/aygdOI7aim

— StatMuse (@statmuse) October 26, 2024

The Blazers are going to Grant with tremendous frequency to open the 2024-25 campaign. He has already notched 41 shot attempts from the field! The Blazers are depending on Grant to play a big role, and so far so good this season for the forward. In addition to playing in the paint, Grant can pull up from three.

Deandre Ayton stands a good chance of winning the jump ball at center court. Ayton is two for two on jump balls to open the 2024-25 campaign. The former Suns’ big man had success a year ago, with a 63.24% success rate on jump balls.

For these reasons, I suggest adding Grant to your first basket prop bets today!

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.