Mountain West & Pac-2 Football Conference Season Preview & Best Bets

It’s been a long and eventful spring and summer, and now the 2024 college football season is nearly upon us. The battle for a spot in the brand new 12-team College Football Playoff begins on August 24 and won’t slow down until a champion is crowned next January. Last season’s National Championship game saw Michigan knock off Washington to claim its first national title in 27 years. Who will reach the pinnacle of the sport in this new playoff format this season? It’s almost time to find out.

With the offseason chaos in the rearview mirror, it’s time to delve into the futures market for each conference. Today, we’ll be taking a look at the Mountain West, a conference that is no stranger to making some noise against Power 5 opponents, and should be a contender for that coveted Group of 5 spot in the 12-team playoff this fall. This is a league with a plethora of new coaches and a couple of established quarterbacks that could make a massive difference in the trajectory of this title race come November.

We’ll also be taking this opportunity to talk about the brand new Pac-2, as both Oregon State and Washington State will play 7 games against Mountain West opponents, having been essentially adopted into the league for at least this season. While the Beavers and Cougars are basically being treated as independents by oddsmakers, both teams will have their say in how this conference (and potentially the College Football Playoff picture) shakes out. Let’s take a look at the odds and my best bet to make before the season starts.

Mountain West Championship Odds

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing

Boise State (-110)
Fresno State (+475)
UNLV (+600)
Air Force (+1100)
Colorado State (+1200)
Wyoming (+1500)
San Diego State (+2800)
Utah State (+3000)
San Jose State (+5000)
Hawaii (+5000)
Nevada (+30000)

Mountain West Contenders

Boise State

The Boise State Broncos are used to being the top dogs in this conference, and that is one against the case this season. Following an up-and-down campaign that resulted in the firing of Andy Avalos before the Broncos subsequently went on a run to capture the Mountain West title, the 2024 season appears to be a lot more straightforward for head coach Spencer Danielson. Boise State’s defense should be strong, much as it was last season en route to that aforementioned conference title. On offense, the Broncos will likely start former 5-star quarterback Malachi Nelson, who comes over from USC and should be an upgrade over Taylen Green under center. Ashton Jeanty might be the best running back in the nation, and he’ll provide a high floor for an offense that should excel against most of its opponents. There’s a lot to like about Boise State, and I’ll have more to say about the Broncos in the best bet portion of this preview.

Fresno State

Fresno State has been one of the most consistent programs on a year-to-year basis in the Mountain West, thanks in large part to the consistent excellence of Jeff Tedford at head coach. However, with Tedford stepping away from the team this season due to health issues, there are some questions marks swirling around the Bulldogs heading into the 2024 campaign. With that said, Tedford did spend extended time away from the program due to similar health issues a season ago, so I don’t think the team will be too impacted by this loss. Mikey Keene should be rock solid at quarterback and I expect the veteran quarterback to have his best season yet at the helm of this offense. Defensively, this should be one of the best units in the conference once again, especially since they’ll play a weak slate of quarterbacks this season. While I don’t have the Bulldogs winning the Mountain West, an 8 or 9 win season is certainly on the board.

UNLV

Barry Odom’s first season as head coach at UNLV was a rousing success. This is not exactly a football program known for its winning seasons in recent years, but Odom was able to engineer a magical 9-3 season for the Rebels en route to an unexpected conference title game appearance last December. It was the first time in nearly 4 decades that UNLV football won more than 7 games in a season, and expectations are understandably high for the Rebels in Odom and offensive coordinator Brennan Marion’s second season.

The Rebels should once again be a force on offense under Marion, as both FCS quarterback transfer portal imports, Hajj-Malik Williams and Matt Sluka should get playing time under center this season. The issue with the Rebels is their schedule, which includes nonconference games against Houston, Kansas and Syracuse, all within the first 5 weeks of the season. With UNLV also taking on Boise State, Fresno State and traveling to the island for a game against Hawaii, I have to pass on a preseason wager on what is still a program on the rise.

Pac-2 Roundup

Oregon State

Following a season in which they were knocking on the door of a potential Pac-12 title game appearance, the Oregon State Beavers win total is listed at 7.5, with most outlets shading to the under at approximately -130 odds. Trent Bray enters as a first time head coach for a program that is in no-man’s land after losing its head coach, quarterback, best offensive player (Damien Martinez to Miami) and ranks outside of the top 110 in returning production by SP+. This is a complete rebuild based on player personnel and a brand new coaching staff, so I have major concerns about year 1 in what is a total overhaul of this program. Based on my projections, the Beavers are expected to be favored in approximately 8 games, but some of those spreads are going to be extremely close. Road games against Cal, Air Force and Boise State in the final 5 weeks of the season certainly doesn’t help matters as the Beavers may not close the season on a high note.

Washington State

Much like Oregon State, the win total for Washington State is listed at 7.5 at most outlets, with approximately -110 odds on either side. The Cougars are in an interesting position in Jake Dickert’s fourth season as head coach. Washington State isn’t quite bad enough to be in a complete rebuild, but the Cougars are also expected to be weaker offensively compared to a season ago when Cam Ward was leading the way at quarterback. Defensively, Washington State only returns 3 starters from a unit that was already quite poor in 2023, while Dickert has yet to name a starting quarterback at the time of writing. The Cougars have a brutal schedule in September and October, including road games against Washington, Boise State and Fresno State. This is a team that could get off to a very slow start before picking things up in the second half of the season once the schedule softens considerably.

Mountain West best bet: Boise State to win the conference (-110)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

I hinted at my optimism around Boise State in my team breakdown above, but I’ve been bullish on this team all summer and the market certainly agrees. While I wish we were still getting a plus number on the Broncos to win the Mountain West, I’ve seen this number as low as -150 out in the market, so I certainly support a wager at -110 compared to how these odds are moving as we get closer to kickoff. Not only do I think this Boise State team is the top unit in the Mountain West, I have the Broncos as the top team in the Group of 5 and the most likely side to make the College Football Playoff via that Group of 5 slot.

An early date with Oregon is expected to be a comfortable Ducks victory, but the Broncos should be favored in all 11 of their other games this season. They’ll also dodge Fresno State and Colorado State while getting to face both Oregon State and Washington State at home. This is the most talented roster in the Mountain West and they’ve got an extremely favorable conference schedule, so I would frankly be shocked if the Broncos dropped more than one conference contest en route to the championship game. Regardless of opponent in the MWC title game, this ticket will certainly have plenty of value, as Boise should be a favorite of -200 or more against any potential challenger. It’s a chalky pick, but the Broncos are the favorites for a reason in this conference.

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