The divisional rounds of the MLB playoffs have arrived. The National League is set for action on Sunday, October 6 with the Dodgers hosting the Padres and the Phillies hosting the Mets. Let’s look at both games as we inch closer to crowning a champion for the 2024 season.
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
The Padres come in after defeating the Atlanta Braves in two games. They finished the regular season with a record of 93-69 and 48-33 on the road. The Dodgers are the number one seed in the National League with a record of 98-64 and 52-29 at home. Both teams are “burning hot” on the Team Strength Oscillator and the Dodgers are +29 to +26 on the Power Ranks Indicator. The teams are trending in games “over” the line but the Score Prediction is 4-1 in favor of the Padres with 57 percent confidence. Yu Darvish is scheduled to pitch for the Padres versus Jack Flaherty for the Dodgers. Darvish was 7-3 with a 3.31 ERA in the regular season and an excellent bet at +$694 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. Flaherty posted a record of 7-5 with a 2.96 ERA and +$332. The Padres won 7 off 11 games between the teams this season. Los Angeles is the more stable team, coming in at +39 to +15 on the Team Volatility Oscillator. The Dodgers have a +152 to +91 run differential edge this season. I like the Dodgers at home in a game “under” the line.
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
The Mets enter after a dramatic 9th-inning win over the Milwaukee Brewers in game three of the wild card round. New York was 89-73 during the regular season and 43-39 on the road. The Phillies come in as the number two seed in the National League with a record of 95-67 and 54-27 at home, which is the best in the league. Philadelphia is “average” on the Team Strength Oscillator and +15 on the Power Ranks Indicator versus “average up” and +21 for the Mets. The teams are trending in games on opposite sides of the over/under line and the score prediction of 4-3 in favor of the Phillies has only 26 percent confidence. The Phillies won 8 of the 13 regular season games between the teams. They are also the most consistent regarding their favorite underdog status. In addition, the Phillies have a +113 to +71 scoring differential edge. The Mets are the hottest team entering the playoffs, but the Phillies have arguably the best home field advantage in the league, particularly in the playoffs. I like the Phillies but I pass on the over/under bet.
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