MLB 2024 Home Run Derby predictions, odds and best bets: Gunnar Henderson takes the Derby by the horns

We’ve officially reached the All-Star break in the Major League Baseball season. It’s been nearly four months since Opening Day and there has been plenty of excitement thus far. But now, it’s time for the All-Star festivities to begin. The first event of the week is the Home Run Derby which features eight of the best sluggers in baseball meeting in Arlington, Texas. Let’s preview the Derby before getting into my best bets for the event.

2024 Home Run Derby Rules and Preview

The rules are slightly different for the Home Run Derby this year. Last year, the participants were seeded 1 through 8 and matched up based on their seeding. But this year, all 8 participants will hit as many home runs as they can in the first round. The 4 hitters with the most home runs will move onto the second round, and then they are seeded 1 through 4 based on the amount of home runs they hit in the previous round.

Hitters will be limited to 3 minutes or 40 pitches, whichever comes first, in the first two rounds. In the final round, the two hitters will have 2 minutes or 27 pitches, whichever comes first. As for the bonus time, it’s also different this year. Instead of 30 extra seconds, the hitters will get 3 “outs”. Anything that is not a home run is considered an out. If the hitter launches a home run 425+ feet during the bonus time, they will be granted an extra out. Now that we know the rules, let’s get into my best bets.

2024 Home Run Derby Best Bet: Gunnar Henderson (+430)

It’s been an MVP-caliber season for Gunnar Henderson. The Baltimore shortstop hit .286 with a .586 slugging percentage and a .957 OPS in the first half of the season. He launched an incredible 28 home runs in 95 games which matched his season total last season in 150 games. Henderson’s advanced metrics are some of the best numbers in all of baseball as he ranks in the 99th percentile in hard hit rate and 89th percentile in barrel rate. The majority of Henderson’s home runs were towards the pull side, which isn’t too surprising. But the good news about that is right field at Globe Life Field should be easier than at Camden Yards. That’s because Camden Yards is 318 feet to the right field pole but has a whopping 21 foot high wall. As for Globe Life Field, it’s 8 feet farther to the pole in right field, but the wall is just 8 feet high. Henderson should be able to use that shorter wall to his advantage. I’m expecting Henderson to advance to the second round, and as long as he doesn’t get too tired, I think he has a great chance of winning.

2024 Home Run Derby Longshot Best Bet: Adolis Garcia (+500)

I have to sprinkle a little on the crowd favorite. Adolis Garcia got the invite to represent the Rangers in the Derby, and although he hasn’t had the best first half, he’s still one of the strongest players in baseball and a home-run threat every time he comes to the plate. But on Monday night, Garcia won’t need to worry about offspeed pitchers or being fooled. He’s going to see a steady diet of batting practice fastballs which should be exactly what he needs to muscle the pitches into the crowd. Plus, Globe Life Field is actually very generous to right-handed hitters. In the last 3 seasons, Globe Life Field is ranked as the 2nd easiest park to hit a home run in for right-handed hitters. Only Dodger Stadium is graded higher in that time period. I’ll take a shot with the hometown hero and take Garcia to win the Home Run Derby as my “longshot”.

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