Make Up or Break Up: Stefon Diggs (Fantasy Football)

Stefon Marsean Diggs caught my eye with the Minneapolis Miracle. We all remember the game against the New Orleans Saints in the 2017 season playoffs, where Case Keenum threw a 27-yard pass to Diggs on the game’s last play. Marcus Williams missed a tackle, and Diggs ran into the end zone, scoring a 61-yard TD.

“Are you kidding me? It’s a Minneapolis Miracle!” #NFL100 https://t.co/aQE6T33Q3A

— NFL Legacy (@NFLLegacy) September 21, 2019

A Star Was Born.

I was googly-eyed when he built on that phenomenal play the next season in Minnesota as he hit 1,021 receiving yards and nine TDs on 102 receptions. Diggs finished at WR11 that year, and the future looked bright. Our relationship endured a slight blip the following season when he finished as WR21, but I knew Diggs would bounce right back.

The trade to Buffalo gave me pause, but almost immediately, I saw his connection with Josh Allen. The bromance was strong in Western New York, and I was all in. 

Diggs continued to look solid in 2020 and beyond. Still the WR1 in Buffalo, the Diggs/Allen connection seemed unbreakable. Until it was. 

In November of last year, things were looking bleak for the Buffalo Bills. With over half of the season played, the team was teetering around .500 and needed a change. Through Week 10, Diggs was averaging a WR18 fantasy finish – not exactly what he was drafted for, but take out a WR56 finish in Week 10 and a WR43 finish in Week 2, and you were looking at a top-10 WR. Fantasy managers were hoping those were simply outlier weeks.

The team fired Ken Dorsey, their offensive coordinator, following that especially embarrassing loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 10, and everything changed: better for the Bills, worse for Diggs. Diggs’ usage changed drastically in this new system, as Joe Brady focused on RB James Cook and the rushing attack.

Diggs’ snap share steadily decreased as well. From Week 1 to Week 10, he played an average of 88% of snaps. From Week 11 on, that number dropped to 72%, and he only had three red zone targets during that time. Diggs only posted one more WR1 finish through the rest of the season – in Week 12 at Philadelphia when he caught a TD. That was the only TD he scored after Week 9.

Record Scratch

Diggs became allegedly disgruntled in Buffalo, similar to how he grew allegedly disgruntled in Minnesota, and he was sent packing to the Houston Texans in a move that looks phenomenal for regular football but concerning for fantasy. Instead of being the defacto WR1, Diggs now lands on a team with a bevy of talent. Trading out QB Josh Allen for a younger model in CJ Stroud gives hope that the passing attack will still be there along with the potential to grow – last season, Stroud threw for 4,108 yds and 23 TDs. Comparably, Allen threw for 4,306 yds and 29 TDs.

Look to your left and right on the field, and you will see Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, and Stroud’s college TE, Cade Stover, who was drafted this year. Not to mention RB Joe Mixon, who thoroughly enjoys catching the football. Last season, Mixon had 64 targets, translating into 376 yards and three TDs in Cincinnati. Mixon’s receiving targets and yardage were in the top 15 for RBs in 2023. Long story short, Stroud is blessed with choice when it comes to moving the offense in 2024.

So, Stefon, which path is this relationship going to head this year? Is it time to pivot? Do we re-solidify our commitment to each other or is the writing on the wall Mr. Diggs?  I have a tough time believing we can make this work, especially with your current ADP of WR14.

The thought of all three talented WRs in Houston finishing in the top 24 is unbelievable. In fact, it has never been done. Last season, Jakobi Meyers was WR24 with 183 fantasy points. There have only been 11 times since the 2004 season that WRs on the same team scored at least 183 fantasy points, the cut-off last season for a top 24 WR. The closest occurrence for three WRs? It was in 2004 when the triad of Marvin Harrison, Brandon Stokely, and Reggie Wayne all managed to reach 165 fantasy points each. This was the season when Peyton Manning threw 49 TDs. 

The pie will be big with Stroud, but we would be looking at the country fair’s world’s biggest pie if this happens. 

And then it’s his age. Diggs is 30 years old this year, which is the exact age when WRs start to decline. In Marvin Elequin’s article about the lifecycle of WRs, we begin to see a significant drop in points per game at this age – only 15% of all top 24 seasons since 2000 have come from WRs ages 31 and older.

But It Might Work For Us…

But what if we can make it work? What if Diggs was brought over to be the true alpha in Houston, and turns out to be the veteran brought in to lead and help push Stroud over the edge? Diggs has had multiple seasons as a WR1, and he has finished as the WR21 or better seven years in a row. Since 2020, Diggs has led the NFL in receptions (445) and ranks second in receiving yards (5,372).

There is a chance that now, with Offensive Coordinator Bobby Slowik in Houston, the fit for Diggs will be better. The Texans have made it clear that they were looking for that separator that can win down the field – very similar to how Diggs was used in Buffalo before the addition of Joe Brady. Half of Diggs’ targets with Brady were either screens or quick hitches, compared to 42% with Dorsey.

If this is going to work, Diggs will have to win deep down the field – early and often.

Conclusion

Looking at all the cards on the table, I just can’t do it this year with Diggs. For the draft capital to pay off, you would have to have the season of a lifetime for what I would be leaving on the board. If you go with Diggs in the fourth round, you’re passing on players like Travis Etienne, Travis Kelce, and DJ Moore – all players who are much more solid in my eyes.

Thank you for the memories, Stefon; we will always have the miracle.