How to Approach Rookie TEs in Redraft (Fantasy Football)

Introduction

This article is the fourth edition of this series, so if you haven’t had a chance to read the first three, check them out here: How to Approach Rookie WRs in Redraft, How to Approach Rookie RBs in Redraft, and How to Approach Rookie QBs in Redraft. 

Drafting rookie TEs in redraft leagues is a big risk — we already know there are not many elite fantasy TEs in the game, so the selection of a rookie big man in a redraft league must be thought through carefully. This article will guide you through some historical trends that might alter how you select first-year tight ends on draft day.

Analysis

As always, we’ll first take a look at where rookie TEs typically finish in fantasy rankings (among other TEs). The results might surprise you — three of the last six years have yielded two or more rookie TEs finishing inside the top 15. One thing that noticeably puts these rookie TEs ahead of the pack is reception volume — with the exception of Sam LaPorta and Pat Freiermuth, none of these players caught over five TDs in their rookie campaigns. Instead, they recorded over double the number of receptions that the average rookie TE has (16).

Next, I plotted each rookie tight end’s average draft position (ADP by TEs, not overall) against their final fantasy ranking. Yet again, the fantasy draft market is quite efficient with rookies. For highly ranked TEs (top 30 ADP), while it’s unlikely that you’ll get a large surplus in value if you ‘overpay’ for a rookie TE (see Sam LaPorta, Mark Andrews), you can expect these rookies to produce about as much as they’re projected to (see Kyle Pitts, Dalton Kincaid). Even in the cases where rookie TEs have underperformed (see Michael Mayer), the differences in expected and true production aren’t that far apart. For lower-ranked rookie TEs, the results are much less predictable — we see fairly large discrepancies between true and predicted ranking.

Next, we can perform some retrospective analysis by looking closer at rookie TE finishes.  For each sector (range of 10 draft positions), I plotted the number of players who finished better, equal, or worse compared to where they were selected.  Some major takeaways:

1. Highly touted rookie TEs typically perform as such (67% have performed as good or better than expected since 2018)
2. Lower-ranked rookie TEs have stronger upside than downside

Now let’s perform this same analysis on non-rookie tight ends — some takeaways:

1. The fantasy redraft market usually predicts the best TEs (1-19)
2. Lower-ranked experienced TEs have strong upside (most TEs projected to finish as TE20-TE59 finish better)

In conclusion, when drafting rookie tight ends in redraft leagues, it’s wise to trust the draft market’s evaluation of the top prospects. Historical data and expert rankings tend to accurately reflect the potential impact of these higher-ranked rookies. However, for lower-ranked rookie TEs, the predictability of their performance decreases significantly. We saw that veteran TEs, even those ranked lower, typically offer more consistent production and possess greater upside. Thus, fantasy managers should exercise caution and avoid the temptation to chase after rookie TEs in the later rounds of the draft, opting instead for more proven veteran options where possible.