How to Approach Rookie RBs in Redraft (Fantasy Football)

Introduction

This article is the second edition to my previous article, How to Approach Rookie WRs in Redraft, so if you haven’t had a chance, check it out!

Drafting rookie running backs (RBs) is a high-risk, high-reward strategy that demands astute analysis and insight. Each NFL season introduces new talent, making it essential to identify rookies who could significantly impact their teams and your fantasy roster immediately. This article will guide you through some historical trends that might alter the way you look at selecting first-year backs on draft day.

Analysis

First, to get an overview of how rookie RBs typically finish, I plotted each rookie season finish for active RBs since 2018. While there is certainly a large spread, it is apparent that rookie backs consistently have multiple top-25 finishes, and often have top-10 finishes.

Next, I plotted each rookie running back’s average draft position (ADP by RBs, not overall) against their final fantasy ranking. We find that the fantasy football draft market for rookie backs is very efficient. There are very few misses (players drafted high that finish low) outside Breece Hall and Trey Sermon. Typically, backs who are drafted high finish high (see Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, etc.)–this differs greatly from what we saw with rookie WRs. Rookie receivers simply haven’t been frequently drafted as highly as backs have, which makes it much more difficult to predict which rookies will finish at the top. Luckily, with running backs, the natural draft market will give us a very strong idea of who to select early on draft day. To be exact, 67% of rookie RBs since 2018 with an ADP of 20 or earlier have finished as high or better than expected (63% for rookie RBs with an ADP of 40 or earlier). Additionally, while there are a number of RBs with lower ADPs who outperformed their expectations (see Nick Chubb, Isiah Pacheco), these instances weren’t as severe as those from the WR position—this means we don’t have to worry too much about missing out on big talent rookie backs later in the draft.

Next, we can perform some retrospective analysis by looking closer at rookie RB finishes. For each sector (range of 10 draft positions), I plotted the number of players who finished better, equal, or worse compared to where they were selected. Some major takeaways:

1. Highly touted rookie RBs rarely miss (top-20 ADP)
2. Later-round rookie RBs often yield strong production—while late-round rookie RBs don’t always outperform their expectation, they rarely finish outside their draft sector

It’s important to apply this same lens to non-rookie RBs as well. Some takeaways:

1. Highly drafted non-rookie RBs have a high miss rate—veteran RBs taken in the top 20 are more likely to underperform than not
2. Non-rookie RBs selected in later rounds have very high production

Conclusion

In conclusion, when selecting rookie running backs in redraft leagues, closely following average draft position trends is crucial. Historical data suggests that highly touted rookie RBs often live up to their high projections, contrasting with the more variable performance of veteran RBs. This trend indicates a strategic advantage in drafting promising rookie RBs early. However, for RBs projected in the later rounds—both rookies and veterans—the outcomes are less predictable. Thus, your approach to picking rookie backs late might require a more nuanced strategy, weighing potential upside against overall team composition and risk tolerance. As always, feel free to reach out on Twitter with any questions!