Heisman Trophy Odds, Predictions & Best Bets: Dillon Gabriel steps into perfect situation

The 2024 college football season is finally on the horizon. The battle for a spot in the new and improved 12-team College Football Playoff begins on August 24 and won’t slow down until December. Last season’s National Championship game saw Michigan knock off Washington in lopsided fashion to claim its second straight national title.

One of the most popular futures markets in this sport is determining who will win the Heisman Trophy. Last season, this award went to LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels as he posted a historic season for the Tigers in what was otherwise a disappointing season for that program.

Looking at the odds, there are multiple contenders in this market, including a few intriguing longshot options. Let’s take a look at the best bets to target before the season starts.

Heisman Trophy odds

Odds reflect best available lines at FanDuel, BetMGM and/or DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing

Dillon Gabriel (+800)
Carson Beck (+850)
Quinn Ewers (+1000)
Jackson Dart (+1400)
Jalen Milroe (+1400)
Nico Iamaleava (+1500)
Will Howard (+1600)
Garrett Nussmeier (+2000)
Cam Ward (+2200)
Riley Leonard (+2500)

It’s not surprising to see most of the names at the top of this market. Dillon Gabriel is in a terrific situation, while big things are expected from Carson Beck this fall. Quinn Ewers is back for another season for a Texas team that is currently favored to make the College Football Playoff, while Jackson Dart and the Ole Miss Rebels are nipping on his heels. Jalen Milroe is going to be relied upon a lot at Alabama in Kalen DeBoer’s first season, even if the Crimson Tide aren’t expected to be in the National Championship picture. Ohio State is also one of the title favorites this season, as well, with Will Howard expected to lead the way for a loaded Buckeyes offense with Chip Kelly calling plays from the sideline.

As to be expected, there isn’t a single non-quarterback in the top 10 of most Heisman Trophy odds boards. Therefore, I will be targeting one of the favorites for this award at the quarterback position, but I’ll also be targeting a longshot to give a bit of value to my Heisman portfolio.

Let’s get into our best bets for this market.

Heisman Trophy winner best bet: Dillon Gabriel (+800)

It’s no secret that the Heisman Trophy award is primarily dominated by quarterbacks. In fact, QBs have dominated this award in this century with 18 Heisman winners lining up under center. Other positions have generally been out of luck in recent memory, including wide receivers, as the last wideout to take home the award prior to DeVonta Smith was Desmond Howard in 1991. This is an award that also typically goes to the quarterback on a team in contention for a national title, and that’s exactly what we have with Dillon Gabriel at Oregon.

It’s no surprise that Gabriel’s odds to win this award have moved from as high as 11-1 down to +800 over the summer. After all, the sixth year quarterback is one of the most experienced college QBs in the nation and is stepping into a perfect situation in Eugene. The Ducks are absolutely loaded and brought in a ton of skill position talent in their pursuit of a Big Ten title and College Football Playoff berth. Bo Nix absolutely thrived in Will Stein’s offense a season ago, throwing for 4,508 yards and 45 touchdowns en route to a 3rd place finish in the Heisman voting. There’s no doubt in my mind that Gabriel can post similar numbers in this system, and he’s only 4,352 passing yards away from becoming the all-time passing leader, so that could be a narrative that propels his Heisman case in the final weeks of this season.

Ultimately, I have Oregon winning the Big Ten and securing a first round bye in the College Football Playoff. If things go according to plan for Dan Lanning’s group, it’s hard not to see Gabriel as the Heisman Trophy favorite heading into Championship Weekend. It’s always a boring pick to back the favorite in this market, but Jayden Daniels was one of the favorites a season ago and his name still got called in December. Gabriel is the favorite for a reason, so let’s start our portfolio with the experienced quarterback.

Heisman Trophy winner longshot bet: Grayson McCall (+10000)

This is a total shot in the dark, but it’s an educated wager on an experienced “professional” college quarterback given how volatile I think some of the quarterbacks at the top of the odds board are. Grayson McCall put up a trio of terrific seasons at Coastal Carolina from 2020-22 before injuries (and a much weaker team and coaching staff) derailed his 2023 campaign. Now, the senior quarterback steps into a promising situation with an NC State team that handed the reigns over to Robert Anae, a respected offensive mind and a surefire upgrade from what McCall had last season. The Wolfpack also upgraded their weapons on the perimeter via the transfer portal and get a very friendly schedule. I’ve got NC State favored in 10 games and if the Wolfpack finish with just 1 loss in conference play, there’s no reason why they couldn’t end up in the ACC title game. That alone gives this 100-1 ticket a ton of value, so McCall is worth a sprinkle at this number.

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