French Open Tennis Day 11 Predictions: Today’s Expert Picks & Best Bets – Aryna Sabalenka aims for semifinal spot

We have reached the business end of the French Open, as quarterfinal competition will get underway on Tuesday. Jannik Sinner is hoping to reach the semis of this tournament for the first time in his career, although he obviously has much bigger things on his mind than the semis. Carlos Alcaraz, Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff are also taking the court. 

Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on Day 11 at Roland Garros.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Mirra Andreeva Under 20.5 games (-115) 

For multiple reasons it’s hard to see this match being competitive. First, they have faced each other twice before and neither previous match was close. Both came on the clay courts of Madrid, where Sabalenka rolled 6-3, 6-1 last spring and 6-1, 6-4 just a few weeks ago. Second, Sabalenka is playing incredibly well. The world #2 is 14-2 in her last 16 matches and her only 2 losses during this streak have come to world #1 Iga Swiatek—including 1 in a third-set tiebreaker during which Sabalenka had multiple championship points to capture the Rome title. Finally, Andreeva is just 17 years old and playing in her first major quarterfinal. That kind of stage is tough for anyone, much less a teenager. I expect Sabalenka to win with ease.

Jasmine Paolini +5.5 games over Elena Rybakina (-142)

If you’re on Paolini, hopefully you got on it right when the lines were released because — unsurprisingly — they have moved in the Italian’s favor. And why not? She has been awesome this season, including the biggest title of her career (1,000 ranking points) on the hard courts of Dubai. Paolini is even better on clay, and if she wins on Wednesday it will mark her 200th professional match victory on this surface. The world #15 needed 3 sets in each of her last 2 matches, but the sets she won were by scores of 6-1, 6-0, 6-0 and 6-1. Rybakina is also playing great this spring, but she would much rather face Paolini on a faster surface rather than clay. The Kazakh leads the head-to-head series by a competitive 2-1 margin and needed 3 tight sets to win in Stuttgart less than 2 months ago — and quick conditions in Stuttgart are much better for Rybakina than those of Roland Garros. I think Paolini can even win this one outright.

Alexander Zverev vs. Alex de Minaur Over 37.5 games (-105) 

Although Zverev leads the head-to-head series 7-2, it’s really not that lopsided – and especially hasn’t been of late. Of their last 5 encounters, De Minaur has won 2 and just once has Zverev won in straight sets. It’s 1-1 so far this year. Moreover, De Minaur is playing great right now. The Australian is 29-10 for his 2024 campaign and has climbed to 11th in the rankings. His last 2 victories of this event came in 4 sets against recent Munich champion Jan-Lennard Struff and world #5 Daniil Medvedev. Moreover, Zverev is coming off consecutive 5-set marathons against Tallon Griekspoor and Holger Rune. This has all the makings of yet another grueling match for the German. He may win, but it’s never easy against the Demon.

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