Best Sports Picks MLB Phillies

Four Phillies Thoughts After an Exciting Sweep of the Rays

September 13, 2024
financialfreedomllc20

Eight for the playoffs, 9 for the NL East, and 12 for a first round bye. Those are the three numbers that Phillies fans should care about after a dominant sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays. 

We’ve hit the part of the season where the league is separated into three categories. The teams at the top are just waiting for October while trying to not drop their seeding. The teams in the middle are caught in 16 straight days of bloodbath baseball games, just to be forced to square off with a powerhouse in the first round. And the teams at the bottom, CC the White Sox, are just counting the days ’til they can play golf.

The Phillies, part of that first category, have managed to win 11 of 14 while playing games without J.T. Realmuto, Alec Bohm, and Kyle Schwarber. Bench players have stepped up, starters have dominated, and the bullpen has anchored. 

There’s going to be a buzz at CBP this weekend. The Mets, who are fighting for the last wild card spot, come to town on a bit of a hot streak. They’re playing for their life at this point, while the Phillies are here to play spoiler to the division rival they haven’t seen since London. Here are some of my current thoughts with just 16 games to go. 

1) I’ve never had more confidence in Nick Castellanos 

I feel like Nick Castellanos is a threat to score runs every single time he steps to the plate. His splits from the last few weeks wouldn’t say that, hitting just .192 over his last 15 games. But Castellanos’ last three months have shown a lot, hitting .276 in June, .275 in July, and .275 in August. 

His OPS with runners in scoring position is nearly 100 points higher than his OPS with nobody on base. He’s hitting .302 in 9th-inning at-bats this season. Most importantly, he’s gotten extremely comfortable in the 5-hole, which is where he’ll go back to when Alec Bohm returns:

  • Batting 2nd: .154/.214/.308
  • Batting 4th: .177/.278/.278
  • Batting 5th: .289/.325/.529

The Edwin Uceta incident only helped these feelings. Nick Castellanos was a very vocal baseball player before he signed with the Phillies, but I think some past season struggles tended to silence him a bit compared to previous years in Detroit, Cincinnati, and Chicago, although he does always tend to tell you exactly how he feels.

Castellanos looked like a guy that was ready to go to war the other night, and that’s what this team needs. We can say what we want about Bryce Harper’s random lack of hustle, but Harper was the first one to go at the pitcher for his teammate. Stuff like that matters.

If Castellanos stepped to the plate in the 9th inning of a playoff game right now, I’d fully expect him to get a hit and change the tide of that game. In a time where the Phillies have dealt with a multitude of injuries, including Harper, Schwarber, Realmuto, Bohm, Edmundo Sosa, and more, Castellanos has been out there every single night ready to help this team win ballgames.

2) I don’t want to say Jose Alvarado is back… but is Jose Alvarado back?

Alvarado’s stuff looked sharp in Wednesday night’s series finale. It’s been a wild 2024 for a key piece to this Phillies bullpen, who recently returned from a personal leave. In a recent article from Matt Gelb, Alvarado has reportedly hung two Cleto Reyes red boxing gloves in his locker, a gift from a friend, to symbolize him to “keep fighting.”

Alvarado has not allowed a single earned run over his last seven innings. He’s allowed just three hits and two walks while striking out 9. 

Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, Carlos Estevez, and Orion Kerkering is a really good top four. But having Alvarado look like himself again completely takes this bullpen from really, really good to elite. Tack on some dominant middle-game innings from Jose Ruiz and some cleanup spots for Tanner Banks, and there aren’t many bullpens in baseball that are set up for a playoff run like this one.

3) Kody Clemens and Weston Wilson will both have a playoff moment

I came into this season a little iffy on the bench. The Whit Merrifield signing felt like a good one before the season was underway; but after that, the bench felt very thin. 

Kody Clemens and Weston Wilson have completely changed that.

It feels like every time Clemens steps to the plate, he’s ready to get another big hit. His season stats may not jump out, hitting just .242 on the year. But he’s got a .765 OPS with RISP, an .813 OPS with 2 outs and RISP, an .866 OPS in tie games, and is slashing .333/.333/.800 with a 1.133 OPS in the 9th inning.

Wilson feels like he’s going to have a moment. I can’t explain what or when it’s going to be, but it just feels like we’ll remember one specific play from him in October. I might as well give you a prediction: Game 3 of the NLDS, pinch hit double on the road to give the Phillies the lead. 

Wilson is hitting .308 this season. He’s hitting.344/.400/.594 over the last 28 days, and is now up to .400/.441/.733 with a 1.175 OPS against left-handed pitching. 

The last roster spot could very well be between these two guys. It’ll depend on matchups. What pitchers are planning on starting for the Phillies opponent. What the L/R splits are in the opposing bullpen. If it’s lefty heavy, you’ll see Wilson. If it’s righty heavy, you’ll see Clemens, although Kody’s splits this year are better vs. lefties due to less ABs.

4) PLEASE beat the brakes off of the Mets at Citizens Bank Park

Two hot teams will square off at Citizens Bank Park this weekend, starting Friday night with Aaron Nola on the mound at 7:10. The Phillies have won 9 of 11, 11 of 14, and haven’t lost a series since August 22nd. The Mets have won 8 of 10, and although they haven’t necessarily played great teams (White Sox, Red Sox, Reds, Blue Jays), their offense has looked pretty alive. 

Francisco Lindor has lead the way for New York, with 24 year old Mark Vientos right behind him. Lindor is coming off an incredible month of August, slashing .325/.372/.567 with a .939 OPS. He’s jolted himself up towards the MVP race, and although he won’t win, he’ll most certainly finish in the top five, and probably the top three.

But Mets fans are getting a little too comfortable. They see 10 good games against bad teams and think the World Series trophy is coming back to Queens for the first time since, checks notes, 1986. Look, even the Mets social media team thinks Francisco Lindor should beat out a guy who’s about to have the first ever 50 home run, 50 stolen base season. 

The goal for the Phillies should be making sure their series in Queens on September 19th doesn’t matter. If all things go according to plan, the Phillies could clinch the division on Tuesday vs. the Brewers. Don’t go to Citi Field next week with a damn thing to play for. That will ruin Mets fans, who have 13 of their last 16 games against the Phillies, Braves, and Brewers. Their hunt for the playoffs is far from a cake walk. 

The post Four Phillies Thoughts After an Exciting Sweep of the Rays appeared first on Crossing Broad.

https://www.crossingbroad.com/2024/09/four-phillies-thoughts-after-an-exciting-sweep-of-the-rays.html

#fantasyfootball #Sports #Betting #sportsbetting #sportsbettingadvice #freepick #freepicks #sportsbettingtips #handicapping #predictions #sportspredictions #NFL #esports #espn #NBA #NHL #sportsprediction #ncaa #mlb #WNBA #prediction #nhl #nhlplayoffs #nhlpicks #nbapicks #NBAPlayoffs #NFLPlayoffs #espnsports #bettingsports #bettingtips #bettingonline #bettingexpert #basketball #football #soccer #hockey #sportspicks #ncaabasketball #foxsports #cbssports #soccerpredictions #sportingbet