Final Four: A Look at the Odds and Trends for Alabama vs. UConn and NC State vs. Purdue

The prequel to the UConn/Purdue national championship – errr the Final Four – takes place on Saturday night.

Ok, sure, Alabama and NC State are going to be on the court too, but everything is pointing toward a UConn-Purdue national championship game.

The Huskies and Boilermakers are overwhelming favorites for Saturday’s Final Four games, UConn -11.5 against Alabama, while Purdue is a nine-point favorite against NC State. It’s wild that the team facing a No. 11 seed has the lower spread in its favor.

Alabama vs. UConn

UConn is 14-7 against the spread as a double-digit favorite this season.

The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in the NCAA tournament with double-digit covers in three of their four games.

Alabama has not been more than a 7.5-point underdog all season. The Tide covered and won outright as an underdog against North Carolina in the Sweet 16, but they are just 3-6 ATS as a dog this season.

Alabama loves to play at a super-fast pace, which is why the over/under sits at 161, but UConn has not allowed a team to score more than 60 points in the Big Dance.

The under is 5-1 in UConn games when the total closed at 150 points or higher. It’s worth noting the Huskies slowed down a high-flying Illinois offense in the Elite Eight and that game got nowhere close to the over of 154.5.

All but one of Alabama’s games had a total over 150 points and the Tide are 27-9 to the over.

It’s worth noting that while, yes, these games are being played inside the Arizona Cardinals stadium, the shooting was not affected last time the Final Four was held there in 2017. All four teams eclipsed the 70-point mark in the Final Four and UNC beat Gonzaga 71-65 in the title game.

Of course, none of the teams played at Alabama’s rapid pace, but that at least dispels the “poor shooting in football stadium” narrative.

“Our fanbase, again is as obnoxious as shit on social. So everyone hates us.”

UConn coach Dan Hurley. pic.twitter.com/v0MGTwXm2b

— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) March 31, 2024

NC State vs. Purdue

Purdue, like UConn, is 4-0 ATS as a favorite in the NCAA tournament.

The Boilermakers are 10-11 ATS as a favorite of nine or more points this season.

NC State is 4-0 ATS and outright as an underdog of nine or more points. The Wolfpack beat Duke, Tennessee, and North Carolina twice in those spots.

That makes you at least think that the underdog story of the tournament could cover, but then you realize that freakish giant Zach Edey is on the other team.

The total currently sits at 146 points. Purdue is 12-9 to the over when the total closed at 146 points or higher. NC State went 18-9 to the over in those same spots.

However, it’s worth noting Purdue and NC State combined to go 4-0 to the under last weekend and only one Purdue game has gone over in the NCAA tournament.

First weekend of April. Should be a good one for New Jersey online sports betting, Pennsylvania online sports betting, and casino too. Make sure you’re getting the bonus code for PA casinos.

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