Fantasy Reaction: Stefon Diggs Traded to the Houston Texans

No NFL off-season is complete these days without a blockbuster trade. The Buffalo Bills made headlines on Wednesday morning when they decided to trade former All-Pro WR Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans in exchange for a 2025 2nd round pick.

To be specific:
— It’s a 2025 2nd round going to Buffalo (Minnesota’s).
— The #Bills are giving a 5th rounder in 2025 and a 6th this year, and Stefon Diggs. https://t.co/gPdruAC0Gb

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) April 3, 2024

For a guy as talented as Diggs, you certainly would have expected that they’d get more in return than just a 2nd round pick next season. Sounds false…but true: The Pittsburgh Steelers were able to trade Chase Claypool to the Bears in exchange for the 32nd overall pick in last year’s draft. In other words, the Steelers were able to get more for Claypool than the Bills got for Diggs.

Buffalo Bills

According to OverTheCap, the Bills will eat over $31 million in dead cap to have Diggs play elsewhere. He would have cost $27.9 million in 2024 against the cap had he remained a Bill. For a WR room that now lacks elite talent and a true WR1, it certainly makes you wonder if there’s more to this story behind the scenes. After all, Diggs did make headlines multiple times while in Buffalo, voicing his displeasure regarding his role in the offense.

Down the stretch last year, Diggs had zero 100-yard games over his final 13 in Buffalo, including the playoffs. It’s difficult to say if this was a product of Diggs perhaps hitting an age cliff (he turns 31 in November) or just a result in the change in offensive coordinator. New OC Joe Brady dialed up one of the league’s most run-heavy offenses in the NFL after he took over in mid November. Under former OC Ken Dorsey, the Bills ranked fifth in pass rate while under Brady, Buffalo was sixth in rush rate. The decisions to move on from Diggs and to hire Brady as the full-time OC signals that the offense should once again remain run-heavy in 2024.

As for Diggs himself, he’s coming off a season in which he averaged 7.4 yards per target, his lowest mark since his 2018 season with the Vikings, and his 2.40 yards per route run in 2022 dropped drastically to 1.89 in 2023. He’s also coming off a year in which his playing time fell off a cliff with Brady as the OC. In Weeks 1-10 with Dorsey, Diggs averaged an 87% snap share. Following the OC change, Diggs averaged a 75% snap share before averaging just 45 receiving yards per game down the stretch. The drop in efficiency and lack of usage over the final two months of the year definitely raise some questions about where Diggs is at in terms of his career arc.

In addition to losing Diggs’ 160 targets from last year, the Bills also lost WR2 Gabe Davis in free agency. It leaves a WR depth chart that as of now, features Khalil Shakir and free agent signee, Curtis Samuel as the top two options in the WR room. Of course, Dalton Kincaid, whom the team selected in the first round of last year’s draft, should have a massive opportunity in front of him to make the leap in year two. Kincaid quietly finished with the fourth-most rookie TE receptions of all-time, making him one of our favorite Dynasty Trade Targets this off-season.

Make no mistake about it, however, this team will certainly be adding to their depth chart after this move. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Bills are now (-240) to select a WR with their first selection. They’re currently slotted to pick at 28th overall and 60th overall in the second round. Top tier talents like Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze will certainly be long gone, but perhaps the team looks to the second/third tier in an extremely strong class. Brian Thomas Jr., Adonai Mitchell, Xavier Worthy and Ladd McConkey are all generating Round 1 buzz in NFL Draft circles while there should be no shortage of high upside players available in Round 2. Savvy dynasty managers may want to strike while the iron’s hot to see what the trade market is like for a Curtis Samuel or a Khalil Shakir prior to the NFL Draft. After this move, the Bills have one of the league’s best Team Opportunities in the league for a WR.

Houston Texans

While the vacancy in Buffalo makes the Bills one of the top landing spots for a rookie WR, the Texans 3WR set now looks set in stone with Diggs, Nico Collins and last year’s talented rookie, Tank Dell. The team also re-signed TE Dalton Schultz this off-season and traded for RB Joe Mixon to give C.J. Stroud arguably the NFL’s most complete group of weapons. To say the Texans are going all in with Stroud on his rookie deal is an understatement. After winning the 2023 Offensive Player of the Year, Stroud could very well be in the conversation for league MVP if the Texans can build off their promising 2023 campaign.

While Stroud is the obvious winner here, Nico Collins and/or Tank Dell could be considered losers when it comes to fantasy depending on how the target tree works out. No disrespect to Noah Brown or John Metchie, but the target competition is obviously a lot more difficult with Diggs in town. As noted above, Diggs’ late-season production took a hit, but on a per route run basis, he was still earning targets at a high level. Over the last three years starting with 2023, his TPRR numbers are 26.3%, 25.2% and 23.9%. It appears as though something’s got to give when it comes to the new ‘big three’ in Houston as it will be difficult for all three to be top notch fantasy options as long as all players are healthy.

Nico Collins enjoyed a true breakout season last year, ranking second behind only Tyreek Hill in yards per route run with an elite 3.11 mark in that statistic. For context, Since 2013, there have been only four WRs to post more than 3.0 YPRR: Julio Jones (2015, 2016, and 2017), Tyreek Hill (2022 and 2023), Cooper Kupp (2021), and Nico Collins last year. Certifiably #good at the game, he also earned a healthy 26% target share in games where he played 60+% of the snaps. Collins enters a contract year at the age of 25, and this move definitely makes his future with Houston a bit murky. As it stands, Diggs remains under contract through the 2027 season, but these players are currently on opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to their career arc. Still an ascending talent, Collins could be the more fantasy relevant option for 2024 if Diggs is truly starting to slow down entering his age 31 season.

Carmen Mandato/Getty Images

As for Tank Dell, he enters the off-season recovering from a fractured fibula suffered in Week 13. He’s reportedly doing well in his recovery and should be close to 100% when training camp opens this summer. In the eight games last season in which Collins and Dell both ran 20+ routes, it was Collins who led the duo in receiving yards per game (85 to 75) and targets per route run (25% to 21%). If we use those numbers, it looks like Tank will probably third in line for volume, but he should be able to produce big time numbers in terms of efficiency. With a massive 14.4 aDOT last season and an eye-popping 9.5 yards per target as a rookie, there will still be plenty of spike weeks from Dell this season given his ability to win down the field. It certainly doesn’t hurt that C.J. Stroud was third in the NFL in 20+ yard completions last year with a monster 9.4-yard aDOT, the third-highest among 38 QBs who logged 200+ drop backs. Tied to C.J. Stroud for the next three years at a minimum with Diggs potentially on the decline, it’s probably worth poking around in your dynasty league to see what the price is for a player who proved he can win in the NFL. After all, he’s just 24 years old, and we know WRs generally tend to take a big step forward in year two in the league.

If you’re looking for a more detailed discussion on this signing, be sure to subscribe to The Fantasy Footballers Podcast to hear Andy, Mike and Jason break down the fallout for both the Texans and the Bills.