Fantasy Football Saturday Mailbag for Week 18

Welcome to this weekly mailbag series! This article will take selected questions from The Footballers’ Discord server that you can join here. In it, you can find a dedicated channel for start/sit questions, public fantasy advice, and a general channel for all things fantasy football. There are also exclusive channels only available to Footclan members. Discord members are great at answering questions and you never know when your questions will appear here.

I wasn’t planning on writing a Week 18 mailbag article but there are a shocking number of start/sit questions because of Week 18 championships, which kinda makes me sad. There were also some good dynasty/keeper questions popping up so I wanted to dig in.

Question #1 – Dynasty

Is anyone nervous about Caleb Williams? Have the opp to trade up to the 1.01 in superflex. He was supposed to be an easy #1 – betaclone

Answer: This was the question that I really wanted to get into. The short answer is yes. I don’t care who it is, QBs are extremely hard to project into the NFL. I worry that Caleb Williams was given the “generational” tag and because of that, his slot as the unquestioned #1 pick in SuperFlex was cemented without looking at it objectively. The problem is that there are certain things that we can’t possibly know as he heads into the NFL draft. Even if we had God-like abilities to distill a grade for him as a prospect and that grade made him a 99th percentile QB prospect, we still can’t control how he performs within the scheme from a fantasy standpoint, the talent surrounding him, the quality of the coaching he will receive, and most importantly what sort of potential he has to continue growing as an NFL QB.

Trevor Lawrence was considered generational and he is still a quality QB, but I don’t think he’s taken the next step in the NFL. Kenny Pickett was the most “pro-ready” QB of his class, but he never grew. If anything, Pickett regressed. Same thing for Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, etc. How much of that is the player, the coach, the scheme, and/or the surrounding talent is hard to know. Lawrence could still take the next step now that there will be some more continuity in Jacksonville, but it’s hard not to be disappointed with what he’s done so far given the expectations he had as a “real” NFL and fantasy prospect.

On the other side of the spectrum are QBs like Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson. You could arguably throw Brock Purdy in there who ended up beating out two ultra-high NFL draft picks in Sam Darnold and Trey Lance. These were flawed prospects who through some combination of coaching, scheme, and surrounding talent took huge steps to become league winners. None of these guys were top QB picks in rookie drafts.

You should be nervous about every pick. Caleb Williams is about as safe a pick as you can make. His ability to maneuver within the pocket and make plays with his feet is without question. His arm is as good if not better than Mahomes and Allen right now. He’s not without concerns or outright flaws though. Even while pressured, he always seemed to have plenty of room to maneuver in the pocket. The size of the pocket will be much smaller in the NFL and the athleticism of NFL defensive players will significantly challenge his ability to succeed outside of structure.

In most draft classes, I’m happily moving up to the 1.01 for him. In this class, I’m just trying to collect as many top-eight or so picks as possible because the quality of the QBs and WRs in this class is off the charts. I’d rather take two or more shots at the top of this draft class than bank on a single shot but all of this depends on your team and the value you gain/lose in the trade package.

Question #2 – Keeper

Keep 1, Bijan, James Cook or Devon Achane? – Luis Lopez

Answer: This is my weekly opportunity to bash Arthur Smith and I am going to take it. I don’t trust Arthur Smith and I think Atlanta would be much better off with a different HC, but I’m keeping Bijan Robinson even if Smith stays. Devon Achane had one of the craziest efficient seasons of all time, but that screams for regression and his inability to stay on the field doesn’t help. James Cook has finally been given the touches to be useful in fantasy, but he’s simply never scored enough TDs to be a league winner.

Don’t get me wrong, I love Achane and Cook and will be drafting them happily next year but I think Bijan has the best chance to be a league winner through a combination of volume, talent, and red zone opportunities.

Question #3 – Start/Sit

J. Johnson or Kraft at TE? Who should I play? – Peter Cost

Answer: The Footballers have Tucker Kraft ahead of Juwan Johnson and I agree. Green Bay is on a must-win and both Christian Watson and Jayden Reed are banged up. With Luke Musgrave on IR, Kraft has had four or more receptions over the last four games. Juwan Johnson has a TD in three straight but his usage is all over the map.

Question #4 – Start/Sit

Zamir or walker? – Xilg1n

Answer: I go Zamir White. Just check this post by fellow staff writer Marvin Elequin. Zamir White has been getting RB1 usage the past few weeks and now has an awesome matchup to exploit:

The Zamir White breakout

White has received RB1 usage over the last three weeks – ranking RB7 in Expected Fantasy Points (15.1)

He now faces a Broncos defense that ranks last in schedule-adjusted points allowed to RBs

#LeagueWinner pic.twitter.com/OOxBj7H67h

— Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE) January 6, 2024

Question #5 – Start/Sit

PPR Pickens or Slayton? – MoseDeff

Answer: Sitting George Pickens cost me losses in two out of my five dynasty leagues and another loss in the Footballers’ Writer’s League in the semifinals. I am highly biased, but I am never sitting Pickens again unless I have a really, really good reason to. Not that I’m bitter or anything…