Fantasy Football Saturday Mailbag for Week 17

Good morning Footclan! Welcome to your championship week Saturday morning mailbag! It’s Week 17, and as we do each and every Saturday here at Ballers’ HQ, I have painstakingly scoured every nook and cranny of The Fantasy Footballers’ Discord server and selected a handful of your questions ahead of the most important week of the season! Remember, The Ballers’ Discord is home to the biggest and best online fantasy football community in the world and is your one-stop shop if you’re looking to talk about all things fantasy football. Head over today, register your username, and start interacting with the thousands of members we have waiting to talk ball. There are dozens of dedicated channels for start/sit questions, trade advice, and waiver wire insights, as well as exclusive areas that are only available to you—the loyal members of the Footclan.

This is it Footclan… championship week! It’s been a heck of a ride to get this far, and we are so close to securing those #FootclanTitles that we can practically taste it! Everything we have worked so hard for these last four months all comes down to this one weekend… so let’s make it count! With two games on Christmas Day and another on Thursday night, a number of managers will have a good idea of just how their matchups may shake out ahead of the weekend’s matchups… but just remember—whether you’ve been disappointed by Nico Collins, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, or Joe Mixon, or are riding high off the back of the performances of Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, or Travis Kelce… it’s still all to play for, and in the words of Andy Holloway, “whatever has already happened, can happen in reverse.” We’ve got a lot of important start/sits to talk about… so let’s dive right in!

Question #1 – Wide Receiver Temperature Check

Happy Holloways, Ballers! Is it safe to start Deebo Samuel again? – LogDog

Answer: First things first LogDog—if you’ve survived 16 weeks of being a Deebo Samuel manager and made it to your league’s championship game, a tip of the cap to you… that’s an achievement in itself. Let’s not sugar coat things, rostering Deebo has been absolutely brutal this season, so it’s hardly surprising to hear that so far he’s been riding your bench throughout the fantasy playoffs… but after last week’s WR5 performance, is The Man back, or was this simply a one-week anomaly?

Widely tipped by many to be a top-12 receiver on the year (I may have anointed him as the WR1 in San Francisco back in July… sorry about that!), the 49ers’ YAC master was considered a relative steal in fantasy drafts given his early third round ADP as the 14th overall wideout off the board. Those who had placed their faith in Deebo throughout draft season were rewarded straight off the bat, with the do-it-all receiver finishing as the overall WR12 and WR16 in the opening two weeks of the season… unfortunately, that would be the first and final time last year’s WR12 would string together back-to-back usable fantasy performances, in what has been a largely forgettable year for both Samuel and the entire 49ers’ organization. 

Deebo’s successes in Week 16 tell you everything you need to know about his year to date; the nine targets and seven receptions in the 29-17 defeat to Miami were the most he had recorded in either category since Week 2, the 16-yard receiving touchdown was the first time Samuel had found the end zone through the air or on the ground since Week 5, and the 25 yards he rushed for out of the backfield were his highest mark of the entire season… woof. Despite the loss, Samuel ended the week as the overall WR5—his third weekly WR1 finish on the year, and his first trip inside the top 24 in almost two months… so just what can we expect from the very Jekyll and Hyde Deebo in championship week as the 13-2 Detroit Lions roll into the Bay Area.

In short… not a lot I’m afraid. Sure, the Lions are ranked 27th against wide receivers in total fantasy points allowed, and are giving up almost 190 yards each week to the position… but this 49ers offense just feels done—both for the year and possibly as a unit in general. After struggling to put up any real kind of attack against a stout Dolphins defense, the silver lining to the very dark cloud hanging over Levi’s Stadium on Monday night is the 50.5-point O/U—so there should be plenty of scoring and fantasy points to go around on both sides of the ball—but with Brock Purdy and Co. likely to be playing catch up early against the number-one offense in football, this has all the hallmarks of a Jauan Jennings and/or George Kittle game. Deebo won’t be a total bust in the Niners’ final home game of the season, and should Isaac Guerendo sit out for another week, there may be some additional value in the run game for the versatile veteran—he’s a high-ceiling WR3 for me this week, but not someone I would be excited to start. San Fran vs. Detroit is the last game of championship week—if you do start him, you may need some of Mike Wright’s patented steel underpants… good luck!

Question #2 – Start/Sit (Desperation QB Edition)

Do I trust Matthew Stafford again this week or pivot to Anthony Richardson? – jmb23

Answer: The use of the word again in the question suggests you started Stafford last weekend and survived his six-point fantasy performance in the semifinals week… if so, congrats! 

Week 16 was an unmitigated disaster for Matt Stafford managers—after posting just 8.2 fantasy points the week prior in San Francisco, those who had the Super Bowl 56 winner in their lineups must have been thinking that things surely couldn’t get any worse for the veteran signal-caller, as he and the NFC West leaders traveled to East Rutherford to take on the Jets. After all, this was an opponent, who at 4-10, had given up at least 20 points in each of their last 10 matchups, and had just allowed Mac Jones to post a QB8 finish the previous week… oh, but things did get worse. In true “hold my beer” fashion, Stafford followed up his QB26 performance in wild-card week with an even poopier-pants outing of QB31 at The Meadowlands—completing just 14 passes for 110 yards and a solitary touchdown, as well as an INT.

Despite Stafford’s somewhat forgettable day, the Rams did just enough to see off Gang Green and give themselves a one-game cushion over the Seahawks atop the division heading into their final two games… and when I say “the Rams” I of course mean their third-year powerhouse running back, Kyren Williams. Since Week 12, the former fifth-round pick is averaging over 100 total yards and a score in every game—much to the chagrin of those with Stafford, Puka Nacua, or Cooper Kupp on their rosters. Kyren is the offense for this team at the moment and with the Arizona Cardinals and their 25th-ranked run defense crossing the state line for a visit to SoFi this Saturday evening… I don’t see that changing for at least one more week.

You are in an unenviable position jmb23; in Stafford, you have a quarterback who doesn’t need to pass the ball given the effectiveness of the run game… and in the Colts’ Anthony Richardson, you have a quarterback, who at times simply can’t pass the ball. Richardson’s inefficiency through the air this year is well documented, and has been historically bad—out of the 46 different QBs who have attempted at least 40 passes in the National Football League this season, Richardson ranks 46th a.k.a. dead last. In his 11 starts on the year, the sophomore signal-caller has eclipsed 200 yards through the air in only three of them, and has connected with a receiver in the end zone just eight times… one fewer than team-mate Joe Flacco who has played in seven fewer games. 

In spite of Richardson’s anemic production through the air, his elite-level rushing abilities see him sit as the overall QB16 on the year in FPPG—ahead of Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, C.J. Stroud… and one Matthew Stafford. Jonathan Taylor may be receiving all the plaudits after his 218-yard and three-touchdown showing last weekend, but Richardson still quietly scrambled for 70 yards and a score of his own in the 38-30 victory over Tennessee—the fourth time he has ran for 50 or more yards on the year. In an ideal world, I wouldn’t want to start either of these quarterbacks in championship week—but given the relatively “safer” floor that Richardson’s legs provide, I lean towards him in New York on Sunday afternoon… just keep an eye on those injury reports!

Question #3 – Start/Sit (Playoff Liability Special)

Yoyoyo Ballers! Merry Christmas! Made my two finals…should I start Cooper Kupp, Brian Robinson Jr. or DeVonta Smith? Full-PPR. – Bear Force One

Answer: So, we’re choosing between a guy who fully goosed in Week 15, one who coughed the ball up twice in a week, and another who did have six receptions for 51 yards last week… but lost his starting quarterback to a concussion—what have you done to deserve this in championship week Bear Force One?!?

Ok, let’s make this easy—I’m ruling Smith out straight away. I’m not saying that I don’t trust Kenny Pickett… but I’m also not not saying I don’t trust Kenny Pickett. The Eagles’ last-minute defeat at the hands of divisional rivals Washington in Week 16 has likely knocked them out of contention for the number-one seed in the NFC, with the 36-33 loss giving them just a 5% chance of toppling both the Lions and the Vikings in a quest to secure the bye week and home field advantage through the playoffs. Jalen Hurts remains in concussion protocol, and as if we needed any more signs to tell us he isn’t playing, Philly just inked Ian Book (remember him!) to their practice squad ahead of Sunday’s game at home to Dallas. With no Hurts and no real motivation other than to get another W over their long-standing rivals, I can’t see Smith being too effective in this one—I’d sit him.

And then there were two. In what can only be described as impressive, Cooper Kupp and Brian Robinson Jr. combined for a whopping five fantasy points in Week 16—which at halftime in Washington would have been a negative figure thanks to B-Rob’s pair of lost fumbles against the Eagles. While both men were incredibly disappointing in the most important week of the season to date, I am going to give the third-year rusher a pass on this occasion. B-Rob has been nothing short of sensational so far on the year, especially factoring in his ninth-round draft cost. In his 12 starts, Robinson has finished inside the top 24 on no fewer than nine occasions, positioning him as the overall RB20 (tied with Bucky Irving) on a FPPG basis. 

In Los Angeles’ last two games, Cooper Kupp has seen a target share of only 13%—a stark contrast to teammate Puka Nacua who sits just underneath the 40% mark. Whether it is age catching up to the now 31-year-old, or simply the emergence of a more vibrant talent—there is no denying that Kupp has been surpassed by Nacua as the clear number-one target for Matthew Stafford in this relatively uninspiring Rams passing offense. 

Week 17 sees both Robinson and Kupp face relatively stern tests. Washington plays hosts to Atlanta, who have so far allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs on the year, while Arizona is the visitor to the City of Angels on Saturday Night, with their pass rush ranking as the 11th-toughest matchup for fantasy wideouts through 16 weeks of action. We’ve seen the floor for both of these players and even though Robinson turned the ball over twice last weekend… those were his only fumbles on the year so far. I understand this is a PPR format, but I feel a lot safer playing the running back who will give me 60 yards on the ground and averages 1.5 catches per game than the wideout who’s put up that exact reception total over his last two outings. 

Question #4 – Start/Sit (Andy Holloway TE Redemption Special)

Tucker Kraft or Chig Okonkwo? I know how you guys feel about Chig listening to the podcast as much as I do…there’s trophy on the line as well as 2 thousand $1 hotdogs – nickhornsby

Answer: Is Chig Okonkwo this year’s David Njoku? The third-year tight end has finished as the TE7 and TE3 in the first two weeks of the fantasy playoffs, and who would bet against him making it a hat-trick of top-10 performances this week against the incredibly generous Jacksonville Jaguars?

Okonkwo may be well behind Kraft in terms of season-long stats, but at this stage of the year, the tight end position for fantasy is a case of “what have you done for me lately?”… and in Chig’s case, that’s a lot. It may be a relatively small sample size, but in the last two weeks, no other TE has seen more targets or receptions than the Titans’ duck-footed runner (not my words, the words of Jason Moore), with only Sam LaPorta putting up more fantasy points at the position. 

Kraft on the other hand has somewhat faded into obscurity. At the halfway point of the year, the sophomore pass-catcher looked like a potential league winner, sitting as the overall TE3 on the season behind only Brock Bowers and George Kittle. Although Kraft still remains inside the top eight at the position in season-long rankings, only one finish inside the top 12 since Week 8 and an overall TE18 performance in the back half of the season have seen him frustrate managers who at one point had a locked-in starter at fantasy’s most inconsistent position. 

Kraft is entirely off my radar, especially in a tough matchup against the Vikings in championship week. Josh Jacobs is the only Green Bay Packer I trust to score a touchdown, and without one—Kraft will be largely irrelevant. Chig on the other hand has averaged 12.3 FPPG without a score in his last two matchups and now gets to take on Jacksonville and their 26th-ranked defense against tight ends. Plug in Tennessee’s top target and join Andy Holloway in the Chigoziem Okonkwo Prayer Circle this weekend. Best of luck!

Question #5 – Start/Sit (RB vs. WR Edition)

James Cook, Josh Jacobs and Tyreek Hill. I need to pick two for a #FootclanTitle. It’s a pretty even matchup, but I’m a slight favorite. – jmhannah

Answer: Congrats on making it to the championship game, and what a pleasant dilemma to have with three bona fide superstars to choose from heading into the final week!

As a Miami Dolphins fan and a Tyreek Hill truther, I am all for a Cheetah redemption game in championship week—and against a Cleveland Browns defense that is allowing over 150 yards per week to opposing wideouts, and the most touchdowns to the position on the season—who would bet against it happening? That said, as much as I would love to see Hill lead other fantasy managers to a #FootclanTitle after letting so many of us down… there is absolutely no way I am starting Hill over two of the most on-fire running backs in the National Football League. Since Week 8, Josh Jacobs ranks as the overall RB2, with Cook not far behind at RB7—in the same spell, Tyreek (with a fully fit Tua Tagovailoa) finds himself down at WR16… a full 34 fantasy points behind Cook in half-PPR scoring.

Sure, the matchup for Hill and the Dolphins is almost as good as it gets—the Browns rank 31st against opposing fantasy wideouts and Miami is a whopping 6.5-point favorite in a must-win game… but that weather forecast for Sunday afternoon is giving me fear. Andy, Mike, and Jason brought it up on Thursday and Friday’s episodes of the podcast—but there’s gonna be a little bit rain across the entire country this weekend… and Ohio is going to see its fair share come the 4:05 PM kickoff. Tua has been struggling to connect with Tyreek downfield in the glorious Miami sunshine… I for one don’t want to take the risk that the pair will finally get it going in the heavy rain and 20 mph winds that are forecast at Huntington Bank Field for Sunday afternoon.

Jacobs has finished as an RB1 in six of his last eight starts, and Cook in five of his last six—I don’t care if they are both facing top-12 defenses against the run… I am starting the rushers. With a #FootclanTitle on the line, and entering the weekend as a favorite… give me the safer floor of a running back, and with upsides that can match Hill on any given week, there are very few others I would want to be starting ahead of Jacobs and Cook… good luck in your final match!

Question #6 – Greatest Ever #FootclanTitle Win

What’s your greatest championship win? – Racoonaholik

Answer: Let’s end this championship edition of the Saturday mailbag with a chance to reflect on a #FootclanTitle… and possibly manifest another into existence!

Unsurprisingly as a staff writer here at The Fantasy Footballers, I play in a number of different leagues, in a number of different formats. At last count, I am in 11 leagues in total…six of the 11 are re-draft (including my two main Leagues of Record), and five are dynasty—including one solitary IDP league. Despite the IDP dynasty league being my least favorite, I have already wrapped up this year’s title… so right now it’s the most important one of course.

I’ve won every single one of these leagues at least once… apart from the one I value the most, my hometown LoR. That of course will be my greatest when I eventually win it (I’m coming for you next year Stevie), but until that day, the victory I treasure the most is last year’s championship in the 10-team dynasty league that I have played in for around eight years. Everyone in the league is very invested and after six seasons of hoping Christian McCaffrey would guide me to a title, he and the rest of my squad finally came good in 2023 and brought me home the trophy. Sadly, with CMC, David Montgomery, and Dak Prescott all going down at various points this season, my reign as champion in that particular league is coming to an end.

Thankfully, I am still alive in two of my more important leagues, including my original LoR that I have been in for almost 13 years now… so here’s hoping Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown help secure that one this weekend.

Of course, the greatest championship win is always your last one… so fingers crossed that this time next week, I have a different answer for you.

Good luck this week Footclan, let’s go get those #FootclanTitles—drop a comment below with your greatest championship win, or what you need to grab that title this weekend!