Fantasy Football Saturday Mailbag for Week 12

Good morning Footclan! Welcome once again to the latest edition of The Fantasy Footballers’ Saturday Morning Mailbag! You know the drill by now—each and every Saturday morning here at Ballers’ HQ, I take a handful of your questions from The Fantasy Footballers’ Discord server and give you my thoughts and insights ahead of this week’s games! Remember, The Ballers’ Discord is home to the biggest and best online fantasy football community in the world and is your one-stop shop if you’re looking to talk about all things fantasy football. Head over today, register your username, and start interacting with the thousands of members we have waiting to talk ball. There are dozens of dedicated channels for start/sit questions, trade advice, and waiver wire insights, as well as exclusive areas that are only available to you—the loyal members of the Footclan.

We are covering all bases today Footclan—there are questions about quarterbacks, running backs, wideouts, tight ends, and even a little sprinkling of playoff-friendly DSTs for your reading pleasure. Trade deadlines will have passed for most of your leagues—but that doesn’t mean there’s not still time to work a little waiver-wire magic to get your rosters in the best possible shape as we approach the fantasy playoffs. Week 12 is the first of our two bye-pocalypses, and with so many studs getting the weekend off—those start/sit decisions are more important than ever! What we already know ahead of tomorrow’s games is that Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco won’t return for their trip to Carolina, Philadelphia Eagles wideout DeVonta Smith will miss their game at SoFi against the Rams, and Dallas tight end Jake Ferguson hasn’t cleared the league’s concussion protocol in time to face the Commanders. In better news, it looks as if Mike Evans will get his first start since straining his hamstring in Week 7 against the Ravens, and at long last—Panthers’ rookie running back Jonathon Brooks will make his professional debut against the Chiefs! Ok, so he’ll be backing up Chuba Hubbard and KC is the worst matchup for fantasy RBs… but I have him in my League of Record and I’m already out of playoff contention, let me get excited about something! Anyway, we’ve lots to be getting on with… let’s dive right in!

Question #1 – Season-Long Strategy (Wide Receiver Special) 

Aloha Ballers, 12 team Full-PPR Re-Draft question. Who would you rather have for the rest of the season – Tyreek Hill or Jauan Jennings? – TheRockTakesItDown

Answer: As a Dolphins fan, I can’t believe it’s come to this… but here we are. My initial gut reaction here is “Of course it’s Tyreek Hill, it’s obvious”—but is it really that obvious, or is that even the right decision? Let’s break it down.

It doesn’t matter which way you choose to spin it, 2024 has been an unmitigated disaster for Tyreek Hill and the Miami Dolphins. The Cheetah is currently the overall WR29 on the season despite playing in each and every one of the Fins’ games so far. Sure, we can put a lot of the blame for his lack of production on Tua Tagovailoa’s absence… but Miami’s $212 million franchise QB has been back in action since Week 8, yet Hill has barely broken the top 20 in that time, let alone climbed back into WR1 territory. Outside of his overall WR4 finish on the opening weekend, Tyreek has finished as a WR2 in only two of his nine contests—and in each of those his week was saved by a touchdown, without which he would have put up only single-digit numbers for fantasy. Is it the wrist injury, or is something else going on with the Dolphins’ number one guy we don’t yet know about?

Contrast this with Jauan Jennings, who since returning a fortnight ago against the Bucs, has put up back-to-back games with over 90 receiving yards, as well as hauling in a TD in last Sunday’s home defeat to Seattle. In the absence of Brandon Aiyuk, Jennings has become Brock Purdy’s clear go-to option (when healthy) receiving 11 targets in each of his last two contests—only Ja’Marr Chase (30) and Puka Nacua (23) have seen more in that spell. Deebo Samuel managers may not want to hear this… but Jennings is the new WR1 in this offense—and barring any setbacks—will be for the rest of the year.

Both the 49ers and the Dolphins have a fairly neutral remaining strength of schedule for wide receivers, Miami perhaps having the slight edge—particularly with the 30th-ranked Cleveland Browns in championship week. On paper, there’s very little to separate the two, and taking a walk down Narrative Street would most likely lead us to the conclusion that Jennings is probably the better play ROS… but it’s Tyreek Hill, and unless Cheetah is shut down, I’m starting him (perhaps naively) every.single.week.—Fins—and prayers—UP!

Question #2 – Start/Sit

Hey Ballers! Do I start Jayden Daniels or Justin Herbert this week in a 4pt QB league? – Max MPHj

Answer: What a difference a month can make. Through the first six weeks of the season, Washington’s rookie sensation Jayden Daniels was the overall QB3 for fantasy—sitting behind only Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield. In stark contrast, Justin Herbert—despite having the same number of passing touchdowns as Daniels—was waaaaaay down at QB27. Fast forward a few weeks and the fortunes of these two first-round draft picks have completely flip-flopped. Since Week 7, Jayden Daniels has seen his FPPG plummet from 22.4 to 13.9—while in the same time period, Big Herbs’ has skyrocketed from 11 to 20.5. If we were basing our decision purely on who has the hot hand… it’s Herbert, no question—he’s the only quarterback in the league to put up a QB1 performance in each of his last four games and is coming off his best game of the season against the Bengals. 

However, we know form isn’t everything in fantasy football, and with this being a four-point passing touchdown league, the allure of Jayden Daniels comes firmly into play. The Commanders’ number two overall pick is tied for fourth in rushing touchdowns at the position on the season… yet hasn’t scored on the ground since Week 4. Head Coach Dan Quinn and OC Kliff Kingsbury have been very cautious with their prized asset since Daniels’ Week 7 injury against the Panthers. In the opening six games of his rookie campaign, Daniels was averaging over 10 rushing attempts per week resulting in over 50 YPG on the ground, and almost a full TD. Since sustaining the rib injury against the Panthers, the former LSU Tiger has seen his run plays drop to only 6.5 per game, averaging just 27.5 yards. Will these trends continue, or with a now fully fit Brian Robinson Jr., will we see the OROY-elect get back to his Lamar Jackson-esque ways which saw such success in the early weeks of the year?

The Commanders will look to get back to their winning ways against divisional rival Dallas following back-to-back defeats against Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, and with an implied team total of 28 points—there should be plenty of fantasy goodness on offer for JD through the air and on the ground. Herbert’s matchup against Baltimore on Monday Night Football is also incredibly spicy and has the highest O/U of the week at a whopping 51.0. Andy, Mike, and Jason all have Daniels ranked ahead of the Chargers’ QB… but not by much. If you are looking for a safer play, Daniels’ rushing gives him a higher floor—but under the lights on SoFi Stadium on Monday, we could be in for a shootout between two of the best passers in the league, making Herbert the better upside play. 

Question #3 – Waiver Wire (League Winning RB Edition)

Bonjour Los Balleros. Tyrone Tracy was just dropped in my league. Should I cut Javonte Williams or Jonathon Brooks to pick him up? 12-Team Full PPR league – I am in the playoff sports at the moment. – SquidzFF

Answer: First things first SquidzFF, congrats on getting yourself into those playoff spots—now the focus is on staying there and securing that bye week—and Tyrone Tracy will be a pivotal part in you doing just that.

The Giants’ fifth-round rookie out of Purdue has been nothing short of sensational since being given full control of this backfield in Week 5. In the six games that Tracy has been the starter, he has recorded four RB1 finishes and is the overall RB17 in both total fantasy points and FPPG. To that end, he is a must-add… but who out of Javonte Williams and Jonathon Brooks should you drop?

It’s been a very hot and cold season for Williams in Denver. The fourth-year back’s game log has more red, yellow, and green than a set of traffic lights, and unsurprisingly boasts a consistency rank of D through 11 weeks. Williams has finished as an RB1 twice on the year, as well as another single performance as an RB2… not bad. However, this relevant success contrasts with his four weeks as an RB3 and another four games outside of the top 40 at the position altogether. With Audric Estime’s breakout performance in Week 10—a contest which saw Williams get only one carry—I was ready to wash my hands of Javonte completely… however, last week’s 14-opportunity game put him firmly back in the mix and confirmed one thing—this is going to be a horrible backfield to roster anyone from.

I’m sticking with Jonathon Brooks in this scenario. Sure, we have absolutely no idea just how good the rookie is going to be coming off his ACL tear, nor do we even have much insight into what his role in this offense is going to be… but I don’t really care. The Panthers spent up to get Brooks and I think they are going to want to get a better idea of just what they’ve invested in. At worst, he’ll see 30% of snaps moving forward, but at best he inherits one of the most productive RB roles in fantasy should Chuba Hubbard go down. This is the time of year when I want potential league-winning backup RBs on my bench, not meddling RB3s—keep Brooks, dump Williams.

Question #4 – Playoff Primer (DST Special)

Bonjour from Oklahoma! Pick 1 DST ROS: San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, or the Kansas City Chiefs. Au revoir!  – KDub

Answer: You know it’s almost playoff time when we start talking about upside DSTs!

For me, this is a straight choice between two, not three of these defenses. While the San Francisco 49ers may currently be the highest-ranked unit of the trio at 10th overall on the year—they have by far the worst strength of schedule over the final six weeks of the fantasy season, with the third most difficult run of games of any team in the entire National Football League. San Fran is on the road against Green Bay and Buffalo in back-to-back weeks, before facing the Rams in Week 15 and then the league’s top-scoring offense—Detroit—in championship week… no thank you. 

So, let’s look at Tampa Bay and Kansas City, and which would be the best option moving forward. Currently sitting as the overall 22nd-ranked DST for fantasy, the Bucs look to have disappointed so far on the year—but have excelled against teams ranked in the bottom-10 in schedule-adjusted PAE. On the two occasions that Tampa faced such opponents (Philadelphia in Week 4 and New Orleans in Week 6), their DST has finished fifth and second, scoring double-digit points in both matchups… and now they get to face similarly ranked opponents in five of their next six weeks.

Despite their impressive real-life defense, the Chiefs’ DST has failed to turn those watertight performances on the field into fantasy points for managers off it. Somewhat ironically, their best fantasy output of the season came in their Week 2 victory over the Bengals—which until last week was the game that had conceded the most points on the year with 25. KC has only posted one solitary double-digit fantasy game all year, and although they have some very tasty matchups against the Raiders and the Browns coming up—they will be facing off against Houston and Philly in Weeks 16 and 17.

Tampa Bay has the easiest strength of schedule at the DST position for the remainder of the season with only a trip to Los Angeles to play the Chargers in Week 15 of any real concern. Hopefully, you’ve got a bye in your league that week, but if not—you should be able to pick up and play Atlanta, Arizona, or even Carolina as a one-game emergency plug-in.

Question #5 – Start/Sit

With Mike Evans back in the picture, does Baker Mayfield get a boost? Looking at him vs. Bo Nix this week. Thanks! – zeezy

Answer: After a three-week absence it finally looks as if Tampa Bay’s future first-ballot Hall of Famer (I got you Mike Wright) will make his return, as the Bucs travel north to the Big Apple to face the New York Giants on Sunday afternoon. In games this season with Mike Evans on the field, Baker Mayfield is averaging 265 YPG through the air, 2.6 touchdowns, and 23.2 fantasy points; without Evans, those numbers drop to 215 passing yards, 2.0 TDs, and 16.4 FPPG. It may only be a three-game sample size, but it’s clear to see Baker is a much better fantasy option with his favorite target at his disposal.

Now, with that said… just how much is Big Mike actually going to be playing this weekend in NYC? When asked about Evans’ planned involvement this Sunday, Bucs Head Coach Todd Bowles said “We’ll play him as long as he’s healthy and fresh. If he needs to be in there, he’ll be in there, but we’ll get him out when we have to”… ummmm, okay, thanks, Todd. I fully believe that Evans will suit up and will be the focus of some designed plays… but if Tampa gets into an early lead in a matchup where they enter as six-point road favorites—we could see very little of Mike Evans as the game unfolds, and that negatively impacts Baker Mayfield. The G-Men rank 19th in adjusted fantasy points against the running back and were absolutely flattened by Chuba Hubbard for 153 yards in Germany before going on bye. This has all the makings of a Rachaad White/Bucky Irving game—limiting the upside of all those in the passing game, specifically Laser Mayfield.

Bo Nix on the other hand travels south to Sin City, with him and his fellow Broncos facing off against the Raiders in the late afternoon slate of games. Las Vegas ranks 24th against fantasy QBs on the year, giving the rookie QB a healthy shot at another excellent fantasy day. With the men from Mile High having very little to offer on the ground, Denver will again look to the 12th overall pick out of Oregon to lead their offensive attack as they continue their push for a playoff spot. It’s a close decision, but I am leaning toward Bo Nix over Baker this week—both have excellent matchups with implied team totals of 23.5 points… I just feel as if Denver needs Nix to win in Vegas, Tampa should take care of the Giants without any real heroics from Baker.

Question #6 – Bye-pocalypse Underpants Advice (Big Montana Special)

What level of underpants do I need if I’m starting Will Dissly in the flex? – Krabchella

Answer: Underpants? Where we’re going, we don’t need underpants. Big Montana may not exactly be known for his fantasy prowess—after all, this is a tight end who has gone over 100 receiving yards just once in his seven-year career (in his debut game as a rookie no less), and in that time has only two double-digit fantasy point games where he didn’t find the end zone… but as we look at the TE rankings through the first 11 weeks and see Cade Otton, Taysom Hill, Jonnu Smith, and Zach Ertz in the top 12, it’s safe to say things have gotten a little bit out of hand at the position in 2024.

Since Week 7, Will Dissly has been the overall TE12 for fantasy—ahead of the likes of Evan Engram, Dalton Kincaid, and Sam LaPorta. Who in their right mind would have thought we’d ever been writing that sentence?!? As the Chargers switched from a run-first offense to a more balanced attack coming out of their Week 5 bye, we have started to see a significant rapport develop between quarterback Justin Herbert and his 6’4”, 265 lbs tight end. Only rookie wideout Ladd McConkey has seen more targets from Herbert than Will Dissly—and that is a very close 39-38 in McConkey’s favor. Those 38 targets from Weeks 7 to 11 rank Dissly as TE7 in overall opportunities… Big Montana is here to stay.

With Kyle Pitts, Dalton Kincaid, Mike Gesicki, Evan Engram, Tyler Conklin, and Taysom Hill all on byes this week—Dissly is a legitimate top-12 option, with Andy, Mike, and Jason ranking him as the consensus TE4 on the week. That’s a little too hot for my blood, I’d have him as the TE7 behind Jonnu Smith and Cade Otton… but Montana Strong is a 100% pants-free area this weekend—start him with confidence and enjoy the breeze!

Question #7 – Season-Long Strategy (Taysom Hill G.O.A.T. Special)

What’s good muchachos! T.J. Hockenson, Dallas Goedert, or Taysom Hill moving forward in a Full-PPR league? – Bone Town

Answer: Remember when Dallas Goedert had 10 catches for 170 receiving yards back in Week 3 in New Orleans… nope, neither does anybody else—such is the fickle “what have you done for me lately?” nature of the tight end position. 

Despite being the overall TE7 on the year, the Saints’ Taysom Hill is rostered in only 64% of Sleeper leagues, compared with T.J. Hockenson at 88%, and Dallas Goedert at 85%. The biggest challenge facing each of these three players has been health—Goedert and Hill have both only seen the field on seven occasions so far this season, with Hockules returning just three weeks ago after a lengthy layout following a torn ACL and MCL back in Week 16 of last year. It’s tough being a tight end!

I think your question comes down to this—do you want a more traditional TE who is likely to get half a dozen or so targets per game, and will probably give you five for 55(!) with the chance of a touchdown… or do you want Taysom Hill? Goedert and Hockenson are both averaging 5.3 targets per game on the season with a catch percentage north of 80%—Hill on the other hand is seeing just 3.4 looks each week… but is more than making up for it with his involvement in the run game. Sure, there are boom-and-bust games for Taysom, but his rushing line each week is averaging out at five attempts for 38 yards and a touchdown… that’s essentially a 10-point floor. That line is heavily skewed by last week’s 7/138/3—but even removing the career day, Taysom is still rushing for over 20 YPG and scoring a TD every other week.

Of the two traditional pass-catchers, I like Hockenson more than Goedert for the rest of the season—outside of Justin Jefferson, he is by far the most dangerous weapon in the Vikings’ passing offense. Goedert has shown his upside—but has only truly excelled in one game when both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are on the field. When Jalen Hurts’ two main wideouts are healthy, the former second-round pick is relegated to the third or even fourth look after Saquon Barkley. However, this is all a moot point—I am riding the Taysom Hill train all the way. If I don’t have Kelce, Bowers, Kittle, or McBride, then why not start a man who can record a passing, receiving, and rushing touchdown all in the same game?