Fantasy Football Saturday Mailbag for Week 11

Good morning Footclan! Welcome to another jam-packed edition of The Fantasy Footballers’ Saturday Morning Mailbag! As we do each and every Saturday morning here at Ballers’ HQ, I have meticulously poured over The Fantasy Footballers’ Discord server with a fine-tooth comb and picked out some of the very best questions we’ve been asked in the last few days, in an attempt to give you my thoughts ahead of this week’s games! Remember, The Ballers’ Discord is home to the biggest and best online fantasy football community in the world and is your one-stop-shop if you’re looking to talk about all things fantasy football. Head over today, register your username, and start interacting with the thousands of members we have waiting to talk ball. There are dozens of dedicated channels for start/sit questions, trade advice, and waiver wire insights, as well as exclusive areas that are only available to you – the loyal members of the Footclan.

It speaks volumes to the sheer adulation and love the fantasy community has for Christian McCaffrey and his near superhuman abilities that the man only finishing as the RB12 in his first week back from injury, with 107 yards from scrimmage is seen as a disappointment. It was amazing to see CMC take the field against the Bucs, and more importantly, receive a whopping 87% of the running back carries in the process… brighter days are ahead Footclan, don’t you worry. Ja’Marr Chase continued his campaign to end the season as the overall WR1 with a performance for the ages on Thursday Night Football—torching the Ravens for 264 yards and three touchdowns… Chase is now a full 51.4 fantasy points ahead of WR2 on the year Justin Jefferson… but enough about the CMCs and Ja’Marr Chases of this world—we already know what to do with them every week.

We are far more concerned in this column about whether or not we can start Broncos’ rookie running back Audric Estime, if we can drop last year’s overall RB2 turned this year’s RB50 Raheem Mostert, and just what kind of value the Dallas Cowboys’ superstar wide receiver CeeDee Lamb holds for the rest of season… let’s dive right in.

Question #1 – Season-Long Strategy (Rookie Running Back Edition) 

Heyoooooo Ballerinos! I picked up Audric Estime this week. Is it ok to finally drop Jonathon Brooks, or with the Miles Sanders injury, is he still in play?? – MomosEST2023

Answer: First off, congratulations on your acquisition of Estime! With Sean Payton coming out midweek and talking up his rookie running back, as well as commenting that the 21-year-old out of Notre Dame will “continue to get more reps”—you may have just landed yourself a potential #FootclanTitle winner deep into the season. 

That said… please don’t drop Jonathon Brooks. I get it, I myself had been carrying Brooks in my IR spot all season and had to make some very creative moves to accommodate him on my active roster after his activation last week—but I’ve held onto him for a reason—and that is the potential upside he presents as the first overall running back taken off the board in this years’ NFL draft. It was an absolute body blow as a Brooks manager to hear of Chuba Hubbard’s four-year $33.2 million extension, even more so that it came less than 24 hours after the rookie was finally elevated to the Panther’s main roster… but you have to keep a hold of him.

We have seen Chuba absolutely dominate this season as Carolina’s main rushing threat—his 161 carries on the year so far rank fifth overall at the position behind only Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Kyren Williams, and Alvin Kamara. Hubbard’s usage in the passing game has also been elite—the 35 targets he has received from the combination of Bryce Young and Andy Dalton ranks him inside the top 10 among all running backs on the season. The bottom line is this—whether they want to or not, Carolina will be running the ball a heck of a lot for the remainder of the year, and as it stands, the RB1 role figures to be Chuba’s job to lose… but if anyone can supplant an existing veteran, it’s likely to be a player the Panther’s traded up to select with the 46th overall pick back in April. We’re likely going to have to see an injury to Hubbard for Brooks to be anything more than a flex play ROS… but he’s arguably a top-five insurance option as we head toward the fantasy playoffs.

Question #2 – Trade Advice

Would you trade James Cook and Travis Kelce for Justin Jefferson and Chase Brown? I have T.J. Hockenson and an equal shortage of WRs/RBs – Aaron Rodgers’ Next Excuse

Answer: Ah, the age-old question of “Do I try to acquire something shiny and new, or stick with the guys who have got me this far?” Let’s try to get a better lay of the land here and see exactly what each side is currently worth, and what they could become—starting with your current duo of James Cook and Travis Kelce.

Through 10 weeks of the season, Cook ranks as the overall RB10 in both total points and FPPG—for a player taken as the overall RB14 in drafts… it’s a solid return on investment. The Bills have drifted towards a more run-heavy offense this season, and Cook has benefitted massively. In just nine games this year, he has already tripled his career rushing touchdown total, finding the end zone eight times on the ground—four more times than his last two seasons combined. The cloud to this silver lining is Buffalo’s somewhat difficult run of games to see out the season—with Cook facing the fifth most difficult strength of schedule for running backs through Week 17… not ideal.

Travis Kelce started the season terribly. Back-to-back finishes of TE14, TE47, and TE19 to open the year were not exactly what you were hoping for from a player you most likely invested a third-round draft pick in. However, with Isiah Pacheco going down with a broken fibula, and Rashee Rice being lost for the season with a PCL tear—Kelce has exploded since Week 4. The 35-year-old has finished inside the top seven every week except one since the Chiefs’ 17-10 victory over the Chargers at the beginning of August and currently sits as the TE2 in FPPG over that stretch.

So what about the other side? Justin Jefferson hardly needs his talents quantified—with 140.8 total points on the season so far, J-Jettas sits as the overall WR2 behind only Ja’Marr Chase and has only one game outside WR2 territory on the year (last week’s debacle against the Jaguars). The Vikings are through their bye week and have the seventh hardest SOS for wideouts left on the year—with JJ commanding a 31.7% target share and Minnesota looking playoff-bound—I have zero doubts he will be finishing the year as the overall WR2.

Chase Brown has been a revelation. The second-year rusher has completely ousted Zack Moss in the Cincinnati backfield, seeing 100% of the running back carries and targets in the Bengals’ last two games. Brown finished as the overall RB5 in both of those outings and has matchups against Pittsburgh and Dallas on the other side of the team’s bye in Week 12.

What does it all mean? Well, I am always inclined to prioritize the running back and wide receiver position over tight ends… especially if I have a player of T.J. Hockenson’s caliber in reserve on my bench. If it were me, I am 100% making this trade— not only are you getting a slight improvement at RB, but you are also acquiring one of the very best wideouts in the league. Kelce has been great—but this Chiefs team has the feel of last year’s Philadelphia Eagles to me… they can’t keep on winning. Ride the Hock Strap the rest of the way, or even stream the position—whatever it takes to get Jefferson on your team… Chase Brown is the cherry on top.

Question #3 – Season-Long Strategy (Playoff-Primer)

I have Kyren Williams. Do I drop Raheem Mostert for Blake Corum? I’m 7-3, one more win and I’m locked into the playoffs. – The Mixon Administration

Answer: As an outsider, this is an obvious one… but as a fellow Kyren Williams owner, I empathize with your struggle. The simple answer is yes—cut Raheem Mostert free and grab Blake Corum… but let’s discuss why this is the right option and why I should be doing the same in my league of record.

It’s always tough saying goodbye to players we have drafted or traded for—after all, we’ve done the research, contemplated our strategies, and made the cases for and against every player in the National Football League—so if a guy ends up on my roster, it’s because I have made the conscious decision to acquire him… but unfortunately, it doesn’t always quite work out the way we had hoped. Despite De’Von Achane’s mini-breakout as a rookie, Raheem Mostert still finished the 2023 season as the overall RB2 for fantasy—largely off the back of 21 total touchdowns. Was that ever likely to repeat this year, no—but was he worth the seventh-round draft pick just in case? Absolutely.

For a vast number of reasons—primarily De’Von Achane being unbelievably good, and Miami’s offense being unbelievably bad—it hasn’t happened for Mostert this season. His RB14 finish in Week 8 has been the outlier, and even that was only 15.5 half-PPR fantasy points—most of which came off two short-yardage touchdowns. Last week’s win over the Rams in L.A. saw Mostert receive his fewest opportunities in a game since 2018 with just three (all in the passing game). Achane saw 12 carries, Jaylen Wright had five, and even the three wide receivers were all involved out of the backfield at some point… the dream is over for Raheem.

Now, I have somewhat trashed Mostert there, but even though he has been a complete afterthought in Miami—that single-week performance of his against Arizona outscores Blake Corums’ total production on the entire season… so why should we roster Corum over Raheem? The simple answer… upside. As long as Kyren Williams is healthy, Corum will not even be in flex consideration. Through 10 weeks of his debut season, the rookie’s best finish has been as the overall RB49 against the Packers in Week 5 (I can only assume Kyren had to use the bathroom or something). The third-round pick out of Michigan is averaging just 6% of the team’s snaps, 11% of carries, and 9% of RB targets… but that would skyrocket if anything were to happen to Kyren moving forward.

If you’re playoff-bound, now is the time to make sure you have the best chance possible of being competitive in the knockout stages of the season. Don’t clog your bench with low-upside third-stringers—make sure you have the incredibly valuable insurance policies for your main rushers just in case anything happens down the stretch. Good luck fellow Kyren manager, now excuse me while I go decide who to drop from my bench for Corum and pray to the fantasy gods that I never have to start him.

Question #4 – Season-Long Strategy (CeeDee Lamb Sadness Edition)

Yo yo yo Ballers! Any advice on what to do with CeeDee Lamb? What tier of player would you trade him for, and is this full panic time or is there still some hope?  – rabbott

Answer: I am going to be 100% honest with you here Rabbott… it’s time to panic. As a Tyreek Hill manager in my main league of record, and the pain I endured in those Tua-less weeks, what we’re seeing now with CeeDee Lamb has a very familiar feel to it. 

Lamb’s 21 receiving yards in the Cowboys’ defeat to Philadelphia last week was his lowest yardage total through the air in a full game since October 2021, when he recorded just 13 yards on two receptions in a 36-28 win over Carolina. If that was a sign of things to come… count me out. Dallas has the 11th easiest remaining strength of schedule for wide receivers… but does that really count for anything if your starting quarterback is only going to pass for 45 yards on 23 attempts every week?

CeeDee will continue to command an almost unmatched share of targets at the wide receiver position—even with Cooper Rush’s poor play, Lamb accounted for 34% of all attempts from the backup QB, with Jake Ferguson and Jalen Tolbert a distant second, seeing only 17% apiece. Sure 34% sounds great, but as we head into the business end of the season, 34% of absolutely nothing isn’t going to cut it for fantasy football purposes… just ask Michael Pittman.

We have to accept that Dak is gone for the year, and with it, any hope of the pass-catchers in Dallas delivering any real value for the remainder of the season. If you can sell Lamb on name value alone, you may be able to get a mid-level WR2 in return but don’t hold your breath. Why not try targeting the George Pickens manager, or perhaps even the team that has Jayden Reed—both of these players have league-winning upside and could maybe be acquired off the back of Lamb’s current standing as the overall WR7 through 10 weeks. Don’t undersell CeeDee however, he will be a serviceable low-end WR2/high-end WR3 for the rest of the season—just not the WR1 you’ve become accustomed to.

Question #5 – Waiver Wire (Bye-pocalypse Special)

Yo yo yo Ballers! I have Josh Allen going on bye next week. Should I stash Justin Herbert or Russell Wilson in preparation? Thank y’all! – Kristopher Fields

Answer: Thanks for the question Kristopher, and given your propensity to consider starting Russell Wilson next weekend, I am going to assume that you don’t have a brother called Justin?

Week 12 (along with Week 14) is a true bye-pocalypse. Next week we will be without the services of players from the Atlanta Falcons, Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets, and the Buffalo Bills… the latter of course meaning Josh Allen managers will have to look elsewhere for a starting quarterback as we approach the fantasy playoffs. With Allen (as well as Kirk Cousins and Joe Burrow) getting the week off, potentially startable options at the position available on waivers are likely to be few and far between… so you are in luck that both Justin Herbert and Mr. Unlimited Russell Wilson are both still free agents in your league.

Given this is a one-week rental scenario, we don’t really have to look beyond this somewhat isolated matchup. Unless something happens during Buffalo’s bye week, Josh Allen will be firmly back in your starting lineup for the remainder of the season.

Let’s start with Russ and the Steelers. Since making his debut for the black and yellow in Week 7, the former Bronco has finished as the QB3, QB24, and QB10 in his three starts, and is the QB11 on a FPPG basis over that stretch. Wilson’s successes have largely been thanks to his connection with third-year wide receiver George Pickens—the former Georgia Bulldog hauling in 14 passes for 276 yards and two touchdowns from his new signal caller as the Steelers have gone a perfect three for three with Wilson under center. Those numbers are only going to get better as Pittsburgh has the pleasure of taking on divisional rival Baltimore and their 32nd-ranked passing defense this Sunday afternoon. However, they will face a much more stout divisional rival in the form of Cleveland in Week 12, a defensive unit allowing almost 100 yards and a full score less than the Ravens… ouch.

That brings us nicely to Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers who in Week 12 get to play… you guessed it—Baltimore! The Ravens are giving up on average over 310 yards and two touchdowns to opposing QBs, and although his weapons may not be quite the caliber of George Pickens—Herbs is a much cleaner passer than Russ, having tossed only one interception all season. After a slow start, Herbert has really kicked into gear these last three weeks, finishing as a QB1 against New Orleans, Cleveland, and Tennessee—enough to put him as the overall QB6 for that spell.

In their last six games, the Ravens have allowed fantasy finishes of QB1, QB15, QB6, QB2, QB12, and QB2 to opposing quarterbacks—only rookie Bo Nix failed to finish inside the top 12 in that time, and he was a mere 1.3 points short of the mark. All signs point to Herbert—and with the 10th easiest remaining strength of schedule, if Allen were to go down, you already have a replacement.

Question #6 – Season-Long Strategy (Playoff-Primer)

Who will finish the season stronger: Isiah Pacheco or Tyrone Tracy? – The Finance Baller

Answer: This has the air of being written by a Footclan member who knows they are destined for the playoffs! I admire your confidence Finance Baller, and I hope that this speculative forward-looking question is part of your preparation for the latter part of the season in your quest for a #FootclanTitle!

Fantasy managers who have been holding onto Isiah Pacheco, either stashing him on their IR after his devastating leg injury or recently acquiring him via trade (or waivers), were given a glimmer of hope this week as Chiefs’ Head Coach Andy Reid commented that their third-year running back was “very close” to returning… but it won’t be this weekend against Buffalo. All signs point to last year’s overall RB16 getting back on the field in Week 12 on the road against Carolina, or possibly a week later as KC returns to Arrowfield to take on the Las Vegas Raiders—either way, expectations will need to be tempered as the former seventh-round draft pick gets up to speed, as well as the realistic possibility of a time-share with Kareem Hunt who has performed admirably in Pacheco’s prolonged absence.

A shared backfield certainly does not appear to be something that the New York Giants’ rookie sensation Tyrone Tracy has to worry about, however. Since taking control of the G-Men’s backfield in Week 5—the fifth-rounder out of Purdue has gone from strength to strength and has been the overall RB20 on a FPPG basis in that six-week period. This is his backfield, and there’s not a darn thing Devin Singletary can do about it! In his last six games, Tracy is running at 5.4 Y/A and seeing almost 19 total opportunities per game. Sure this Giants offense isn’t quite at the same level as the Chiefs (understatement of the century)—but Chuba Hubbard has been living proof that you don’t have to be on a great offense to produce the goods for fantasy.

Pacheco is undoubtedly the better running back—but taking into account how long it may take him to get back to full-match fitness, as well as the possibility of him having to share the backfield with Kareem Hunt… give me Tracy the rest of the season.

Question #7 – Fantasy Football League Construction

Hey Ballers. What’s the appropriate bench size for a league with an extra flex? – M

Answer: Thanks for your question M, and although it may sound like a bit of a cop-out—the correct answer is whatever your league wants it to be. However, depending on the size of your league, the number of bench spots can have a huge impact on not only the way the season plays out but also the overall level of engagement for some members of the league over the course of the year.

Let’s assume you are in a 12-team non-SuperFlex league that starts 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1DST, 1K, and 2 FLEX—that gives us 10 starters each week per team, or 120 for the entire league. A shallow bench of three or four players will still allow for plenty of movement on the waiver wire each week, as only 156 to 168 players will be rostered at any one time. If we were to increase that to five or even six bench spots—the total number of players owned across the league would jump to between 180 and 192, limiting the number of potentially valuable pickups across the course of the season.

If you have a serious league where every manager is heavily invested, larger benches aren’t an issue and can even encourage trading—however, if there are more casual players involved, some may be put off by the relatively thin waiver options each week with so many potential pickups already rostered by other teams.

The most important aspect of fantasy football is for your league to be fun for everyone playing in it, and for the construction of the league to reflect that. 

If you want to learn all about what Andy, Mike, and Jason do in their leagues, you can check out this amazing article written by our very own Jason Moore detailing The Ballers’ Preferred League Format which includes not only roster construction tips but scoring format and rule suggestions as well!