Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 7

Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 7!

In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to highlight the most valuable players at each position. Naturally, volume matters tremendously for fantasy football. However, it is important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s value will vary based on their usage and their team’s offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points will take those variables into account to quantify each player’s projected fantasy value based on the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.

The key metrics used in this article are:

• Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
• Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week.

What do these metrics tell us?

• My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
• Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to target players that rank highly in xFP.
• xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics for a holistic view.
• While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your DFS lineups.

If you are newer to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.

If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.

RUNNING BACKS

• After a five-year stint with the Cleveland Browns, Kareem Hunt is now back with the Chiefs, producing like he never left and slotting in as the RB1 in his two games back with Kansas City. As you can see above, Hunt is not only the RB15 in half-PPR points since Week 3, but he is also the RB10 in Expected Fantasy Points. Specifically in Week 5, Hunt was the unquestioned RB1 for the Chiefs as he accounted for 38.5% of the team’s opportunities and participated on 41% of the available routes. For context, Carson Steele and Samaje Perine received less than 10% of the team’s opportunities combined. If Hunt maintains his usage, he should continue to perform as an RB1 for fantasy managers. Especially with some favorable matchups coming up, Hunt projects to be a high-upside option over the next few weeks. Even in a tougher matchup against the 49ers in Week 7, Hunt should receive plenty of opportunities to finish within the top 12 once again.

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