Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 6

Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 6!

In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to highlight the most valuable players at each position. Naturally, volume matters tremendously for fantasy football. However, it is important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s value will vary based on their usage and their team’s offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points will take those variables into account to quantify each player’s projected fantasy value based on the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.

The key metrics used in this article are:

• Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
• Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week.

What do these metrics tell us?

• My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
• Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to target players that rank highly in xFP.
• xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics for a holistic view.
• While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your DFS lineups.

If you are newer to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.

If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.

RUNNING BACKS

• It has been a disappointing season so far for Bijan Robinson, who has seen his usage value steadily decline over the last few weeks. For context, Robinson has been an RB1 in my usage model only once so far this season (Week 1), ranking as the RB31 in Expected Fantasy Points over the last four weeks. In other words, Robinson has been a flex-level running back in both usage and production in recent weeks as Tyler Allgeier has remained consistently involved. While that is certainly concerning for his production going forward, I do think Bijan could bounce back this week as the Falcons face a Panthers defense that ranks in the bottom 12 in EPA per Rush Attempt and Rush Success Rate this season. In addition, the Panthers have allowed the most points above expected at the running back position, which bodes well for Robinson’s upside this week. So even if his usage has fluctuated to start the season, I expect the Panthers to lean on their running game, which should lead to a productive week for Bijan. If he still does not produce top 20 numbers in Week 6, we may need to adjust our expectations for the rest of the season.

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