Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 2

Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 2!

In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to highlight the most valuable players at each position. Naturally, volume matters tremendously for fantasy football. However, it is important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s value will vary based on their usage and their team’s offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points will take those variables into account to quantify each player’s projected fantasy value based on the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.

The key metrics used in this article are:

• Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
• Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week.

What do these metrics tell us?

• My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
• Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to ideally target players that rank highly in xFP.
• xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics for a holistic view.
• While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your DFS lineups.

If you are newer to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.

If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.

RUNNING BACKS

• New team. Similar usage. Joe Mixon did not miss a beat in his first game with the Houston Texans. After ranking among the top 10 running backs in usage value in four of the last five seasons, there was some concern that the Texans could lean on their stacked wide receiver corps as opposed to the rushing game. However, in Week 1, Mixon was the focal point as the Texans ranked 16th in Pass Rate Over Expected with -4.9%. In other words, they employed a more run-heavy offense in neutral situations. That was clearly reflected in Mixon’s usage as he received 46.4% of the team’s opportunities, leading ALL running backs in Expected Fantasy Points with 20.6 xFP. In addition, Mixon was heavily involved in the passing game, finishing the game with a 47% route participation and leading all Houston running backs with a 10% target share. In short, this is clearly Mixon’s backfield and he will continue to dominate the opportunities as long as he remains healthy. Heading into Week 2, he now faces a Chicago defense that just allowed Tony Pollard to finish as the RB11. With the game script potentially in his favor, Mixon should be locked and loaded as mid-tier RB1 this week.

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