Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 18

Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 18!

In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to highlight the most valuable players at every position over the last few games. As you already know, volume matters tremendously for fantasy football. However, it is important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s value will vary based on their unique usage and offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points can help quantify each player’s projected fantasy value based on a variety of factors – such as the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.

The key metrics used in this article are:

• Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
• Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week.

What do these metrics tell us?

• My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
• Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to ideally target players that rank highly in xFP.
• xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics for a complete picture of a player’s value.
• While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your lineups.

If you are newer to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.

If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.

RUNNING BACKS

• Rachaad White has an excellent matchup to close out the season. With the Buccaneers facing the Panthers in a pivotal matchup, I fully expect Tampa Bay to continue to lean on White in Week 18. For context, the Panthers currently rank as the fourth-best matchup in schedule-adjusted points to running backs, most recently allowing Travis Etienne to finish as the RB5. The week before that, Aaron Jones ran the ball for six yards per carry, totaling 130 scrimmage yards on 21 opportunities. In short, this is the perfect matchup for White to bounce back after a quiet performance in Week 17. Assuming he continues to receive elite usage (RB5 in Expected Points since Week 14), I would be shocked if he did not finish Week 18 as a top-10 option. 

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