Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 10

Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 10!

In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to highlight the most valuable players at each position. Naturally, volume matters tremendously for fantasy football. However, it is important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s value will vary based on their usage and their team’s offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points will take those variables into account to quantify each player’s projected fantasy value based on the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.

The key metrics used in this article are:

• Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
• Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week.

What do these metrics tell us?

• My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
• Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to target players that rank highly in xFP.
• xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics for a holistic view.
• While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your DFS lineups.

If you are newer to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.

If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.

RUNNING BACKS

• James Conner has been one of the most consistent running backs this year, finishing within the top 20 in seven of nine games. More importantly, he remains a focal point of a Cardinals offense that is currently 26th in Pass Rate Over Expected this season, relying heavily on their running game in neutral situations. As a result, Conner has been an RB1 in usage value (expected points) in three of his last four games, averaging 14.4 Expected Points since Week 9. He has also underperformed relative to his usage value, averaging -2.41 Fantasy Points Over Expected, signaling the potential for positive regression. And while the Jets are a tougher matchup on paper, keep in mind that New York has been more vulnerable to the running game in recent weeks. Over their last four games, the Jets are allowing the fourth-most EPA per Play (0.048) and the sixth-highest Success Rate (43.8%) at the running back position. Therefore, I trust Conner’s usage to lead to a potential RB1 performance in what should be a competitive matchup. 

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