Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 13

Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!

Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:

• Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL.
• Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape.
• Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects.

And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and a Baller!

Rookie Opportunity Dashboard

To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position. For reference:

• Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric synonymous with volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
• Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between a player’s actual fantasy points and their expected fantasy value. This metric will usually fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
• Opportunity Share equates to the percentage of targets and rush attempts that a player accounts for on their team.
• If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.

Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 12:

• While the Buccaneers’ backfield remains a committee, Bucky Irving once again led them in opportunity share with 29%. More importantly, for the first time this season, Irving led the backfield in route participation (59%) even with Rachaad White healthy and available. In previous games, White operated as the primary receiving running back, marking a significant change in Week 12. That led to a season-high in target share (20%) for Irving, who finished the week as a top-15 running back in Expected Fantasy Points (13.3). If Irving continues to dominate both the rushing and receiving opportunities, he should be a startable top-20 option every week. 
• While Devin Singletary found the end zone, Tyrone Tracy continued to lead the Giants’ backfield in opportunity share with 26%. Surprisingly, however, the Giants utilized multiple running backs in their passing game, which did limit Tracy’s production. Notably, Devin Singletary and Eric Gray ran more routes than Tracy in Week 12, showcasing a potential shift in the team’s offensive strategy. If his usage in the passing game continues to fluctuate, Tracy’s upside will remain limited in a far less efficient offense with Tommy DeVito. 
• While it has not translated into a top-20 fantasy production just yet, Rome Odunze’s usage has been trending in the right direction. He once again accounted for over 20% of the team’s targets and over 30% of their air yards. That would mark the fourth time in his last five games exceeding those thresholds. With Caleb Williams showing improvements in his efficiency (more on that later), Odunze is one of my favorite trade targets as we head into the final weeks of the regular season.
• Even with the change at quarterback, Malik Nabers was once again a WR1 in usage value with 13.2 Expected Fantasy Points. With very little competition for opportunities, Nabers still has the upside to finish as a top 20 wide receiver as long as he continues to command elite market share numbers. In fact, Nabers has commanded a 30% target share in all but two games so far this year. I expect that to continue heading into the fantasy playoffs.
• Devaughn Vele is coming off a career performance as he finished with a 23% target share, 36% air yards share, and 29% targets per route run. While these numbers are encouraging, nothing in Vele’s usage indicates that this could be sustainable outside of a one-week spike. His route participation (69%) was the lowest in his last three games, while Courtland Sutton continues to operate as the WR1. With Troy Franklin and Lil’Jordan Humphrey still a part of the rotation, I would be cautious regarding Vele’s production. Regardless, he needs to be rostered in all dynasty formats, though I would still temper expectations until we see him sustain these numbers for multiple games.
• Cade Stover found the end zone for the first time in his career. However, he continues to operate as the TE2 for the Texans, finishing with only a 23% route percentage and 13% target share. As you can see above, he relied heavily on efficiency as he finished the week with +4.7 Fantasy Points Over Expected. Assuming he continues to command a lower target share, I expect his production to regress to the mean in Week 13.
• For the second time this season, Caleb Williams received over 50 opportunities in a single game (passing and rush attempts). This time, however, Williams was significantly more efficient, despite facing a formidable Vikings defense. In Week 12, he finished the game with 0.11 EPA per Play, a 46.4% success rate, and a +1.6 Completion Percentage Over Expected. With back-to-back efficient performances, dynasty managers should feel hopeful that Williams will remain productive despite a tougher upcoming schedule.

Dynasty Stock Report

Josh Jacobs half-PPR points per week bar graph” width=”3200″ height=”1977″ />

Josh Jacobs – Green Bay Packers, RB

Stock Up

Despite coming off a career-low in points per game, Josh Jacobs has been one of the most productive running backs since joining the NFL. In five seasons, Jacobs has yet to finish outside the top 20 in half-PPR leagues, a streak that should continue after he signed a four-year deal with the Green Bay Packers. Through 12 weeks, Jacobs has been a focal point of a Packers offense that currently ranks dead last in Pass Rate Over Expected (-8.9 percentage points). In other words, in neutral situations, Green Bay is the most run-heavy offense in the league. With a heavy emphasis on the running game, Jacobs is averaging:

• 15.5 Half-PPR Points
• 35.3% Opportunity Share
• 9.7% Target Share
• 51% Route Participation

As you can see in the chart above, the Packers have relied on Jacobs even more since their bye week, averaging 18.8 Expected Fantasy Points in their last two games. From a dynasty perspective, Jacobs is only 26 years old and should still have another season or two before approaching the end of his prime. And even though the Packers could release him after this season based on the structure of his contract, I would be shocked if they leveraged that option considering his production this season. As a result, he should still be valued as a borderline dynasty RB1 as the Packers offense continues to cement itself as one of the most efficient in the league.

Diontae Johnson – Baltimore Ravens, WR

Stock Down

It has been a rollercoaster of a season for Diontae Johnson, who has played with multiple quarterbacks this season. From catching passes from Andy Dalton to being traded to the Baltimore Ravens, Johnson’s production has been wildly inconsistent. While he did have a couple of WR1 performances earlier in the season, his usage has drastically changed with the Ravens. In three games with Baltimore, Johnson is averaging an underwhelming 16% route participation and 5% target share, which is significantly lower than what he was averaging with the Panthers. While there is still hope that he could turn things around as the season progresses, he will likely remain as an unstartable wide receiver with Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman heavily involved. And at 29 years old, Johnson’s dynasty value remains in flux as he approaches free agency for the first time in his career.

Jerry Jeudy half-ppr points per game bar graph” width=”3200″ height=”1977″ />

Jerry Jeudy – Cleveland Browns, WR

Stock Up

After being selected in the first round coming out of Alabama, Jerry Jeudy entered the NFL with high expectations. However, his time with the Denver Broncos was tainted by inconsistent quarterback play, leading to underwhelming fantasy production. His best season saw him finish as the WR20, while he struggled to crack the top 50 in other years. So with Denver approaching a new era after drafting Bo Nix, Jeudy was traded this past offseason to the Browns, marking a fresh start for the former first-round pick. And while it is far from a perfect situation, Jeudy has been trending in the right direction since Jameis Winston took over as the starting quarterback, suggesting a potential turnaround in the second half of the season. Since Week 8, Jeudy is averaging:

• 22.6% Target Share
• 28.7% Air Yards Share
• 97% Route Participation
• 13.2 Expected Fantasy Points (WR11)

Keep in mind that Jeudy secured a three-year contract extension earlier this year, ensuring his presence on the Browns’ roster through the next two seasons. However, with the lingering presence of Deshaun Watson, his upside will likely remain limited. Ideally, the Browns find a way to retain Winston for another season, providing a more favorable outlook for their offensive weapons if he remains the starter. But despite the uncertainty, Jeudy’s position as the WR1 in Cleveland seems secure, especially with Elijah Moore‘s approaching free agency next year.

Ben Sinnott – Washington Commanders, TE

Stock Down

Ben “The Senator” Sinnott was one of my favorite prospects in the 2024 class after a productive final season at Kansas State. And while he graded multiple tiers below Brock Bowers in my rookie model, he still profiled as one of the better picks in dynasty rookie drafts after being selected in the second round by Washington. Unfortunately, he has failed to make an immediate impact on the Commanders’ offense, playing behind both Zach Ertz and John Bates to start his career. As a result, he is only averaging a 16% route rate and a 0.8% target share, providing very little value from a fantasy perspective. While this is not the start that dynasty managers had expected, keep in mind that most tight ends break out in their second and third seasons, offering hope that Sinnott could still emerge later in his career. Especially with Ertz set to enter free agency after this season, I expect Sinnott to have a much clearer path to a breakout in 2025. Therefore, considering his value is likely at an all-time low, now might be the perfect time to target him in trades as we approach the end of the regular season. 

Prospect Watch List

It feels like ages ago when Emeka Egbuka was widely regarded as a top wide receiver in the 2024 class as many expected him to declare alongside Marvin Harrison Jr. this past offseason. However, after an ankle injury hampered his 2023 campaign, Egbuka decided to return for his final season at Ohio State. While he has not quite reached the level of production we saw back in 2022 (92nd percentile season), he has been more productive this year, averaging a higher Receiving Yards Market Share (24.1%) and Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt (2.23) compared to last season. Keep in mind that the benchmark for a productive season will vary as we expect older prospects to produce at a higher rate. And since Egbuka is now in his fourth campaign, his profile only ranks in the 66th percentile as most elite seniors tend to be more productive. It is important to note that his production is also heavily impacted by the breakout of Jeremiah Smith—a true freshman who is already projected as a first-round prospect in the 2027 draft. With that in mind, it should not come as a surprise that Egbuka’s ceiling is somewhat limited, sharing the field with one of the most talented freshman wide receivers in the nation.

While his production has tapered over the last two years, Egbuka is still one of my favorite wide receivers in this class. He is an exceptional route runner who simply knows how to get open against all types of coverages. And while he is not the most athletic receiver, his quickness and sudden acceleration allow him to consistently separate at the line of scrimmage and at the top of his routes. In short, Egbuka is a complete receiver who should excel at the next level—whether he plays outside or in the slot. And considering he is still projected as a first-round prospect in most mock drafts, my rookie model still has him ranked in the 89th percentile, locking him in as a top-five (potentially top three) wide receiver in the 2025 class.

For a list of other prospects to keep an eye on, below are the top CFB wide receivers this season: