Fantasy Court: The Case Against Zamir White in 2024 (Fantasy Football)

This article is part of the annual Fantasy Court series. Don’t forget to check out The Case FOR Zamir White by Kurt Mullen for the opposing view.

Opening Statement

Your Honor, ladies and gentlemen of the jury, and all those tuned in across the nation, today I present the case that Zamir White, running back for the Las Vegas Raiders, is being overvalued in fantasy drafts. Yes, I know he has been dubbed ‘Zeus’ because of his powerful, strong physical style. Still, his lack of pass-catching ability and inability to command any significant opportunities before Josh Jacobs went down in Week 15 with a quad injury last season makes me wary of whether he’ll truly return on investment or exceed expectations at his current ADP RB24.

Zamir White is not Josh Jacobs

Yes, I know Josh Jacobs has been traded to the Packers, leaving behind 56% of the carries and 10% of the team’s targets (per the UDK). But are we confident that the Raiders will lean on Zamir White as their workhorse when their actions suggest otherwise? At RB24, the fantasy community seems convinced that White will step up and take over, but there’s little in his history to suggest he can handle that kind of role.

Josh Jacobs was a first-round pick in 2019, drafted to be the lead back, and he’s delivered every season with at least 1,000 rushing yards — even when dealing with injuries. Zamir White was a fourth-round draft pick and has never reached 1,000 yards in a season, even in college. Despite being only 1.6 years apart in age, the gap in their production and proven ability is significant. Mat Irby highlights this low-upside profile and why you should avoid it very nicely in his article Apex Drafting: Avoiding Low-Upside Profiles:

“White is a late-round NFL pick who failed to find opportunities until deep into his second year, and he’s 24, which is older for a back that has yet to break out. He did secure 2.25 receptions per game during that span, which is a decent rate, but he otherwise doesn’t profile as a pass-catcher (and three other RBs on the team seem better at this than White). He lacked efficiency in rushing (-1.4 rushing FPOE) and receiving (-3.4 receiving FPOE) across these four games.”

Opportunity Arose From Injury, Not Talent

Zamir White has never impressed coaches enough to command any snap share or opportunity in the first two years of his career. He never surpassed a 25% snap share before taking over for Jacobs after his injury in Week 14. White’s limited playing time before that injury highlights my concerns for his prospects this season.

What about his college days? You might think White was a dominant force in college, but that’s not the case either. He never commanded a true workhorse role, even at the collegiate level.

His college career didn’t showcase the kind of consistent, high-volume production that would typically signal a player ready to take on a major workload at the professional level. He never took on an RB1 role and shared a backfield with James Cook. This lack of a proven track record in the NFL and college adds to the skepticism about his ability to thrive as a primary back. It’s a red flag that should make us question his potential in the upcoming season.

An Improved Running Back Room

White was the backup to Josh Jacobs last year, but who was behind White? Ameer Abdullah. Brandon Bolden.

These guys are the epitome of “nasty boys” — and let’s be real, they’re not even worth stashing in dynasty leagues. This offseason, the Raiders brought in Alexander Mattison, who was in a similar situation to White last year. After the Vikings moved on from Dalvin Cook, they turned to Mattison, who had never held a full-time role but excelled as part of a committee or when filling in due to injury. Mattison averaged 20.1 fantasy points per game in six fill-in starts for Cook in 2020-21. While he may not have been “the guy” in a lead role, I believe he’ll eat into White’s opportunities as a complementary piece this season. Although Mattison has never lived up to expectations as a lead back, he’s a great relief back who is a strong pass blocker and pass catcher, two things Zamir White hasn’t excelled at.

Next, the Raiders drafted RB Dylan Laube from New Hampshire, one of the top pass-catching backs in this class. He racked up 2,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards over his last two college seasons. With his NFL-ready skill set, Laube is poised to see opportunities, especially on third downs and passing situations. According to PlayerProfiler, he boasts a 96th-percentile Agility Score, making him a real threat to White’s workload. I don’t see how Laube isn’t incorporated into the game plan with his skillset.

White’s Production Came Against Weak Defenses

Everyone quickly highlights White’s fantasy production down the stretch when he was finally given his opportunity. However, they often overlook who that production came against and the game scripts that inflated those numbers. First, his production came at the tail end of the season, when he was a fresh running back against worn-down defenses that had already played 15 grueling games.

But fatigue wasn’t the only factor — he also faced some of the league’s weaker defenses according to IDP+’s Team Fantasy Points Allowed By Position tool during that stretch, which raises red flags. Let’s break down the only four productive games from Zamir White‘s NFL career thus far so we can truly see the truth behind his RB9 finish.

• Week 15: LAC – 10th most fantasy points allowed to RBs
• Week 16: @KC – Alright, I’ll give him this game
• Week 17: @IND – Fourth most fantasy points allowed to RBs
• Week 18: DEN – Second most fantasy points allowed to RBs

Preseason Prelude

In the latest preseason game, the Raiders rotated all three running backs into the second quarter, and even played White into the third, showing they’re really going with a committee approach. It’s pretty clear they want to use multiple backs rather than just one workhorse.

Zamir White and Alexander Mattison have played the same drives in two preseason games.

Week 1 – three drives:

– White: 45% snaps, 55% attempts
– Mattison: 38%, 27%

Week 2 – eight drives:

– White: 35%, 33%
– Mattison: 33%, 42%

Hard to be confident in White as clear-cut RB1.

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) August 19, 2024

In my opinion, expecting White to step into Jacobs’ role and be efficient is a serious stretch and one I don’t feel comfortable taking with other proven backs still on the board at that ADP.

RBs With More Upside at White’s ADP

RB22 – Rhamondre Stevenson: The seventh highest-paid RB in the league, and he’s in the same tier as Zamir White? I can’t.

RB23 – Najee Harris: Najee and Zamir going back to back should be a crime in itself. Come on, guys. What are we doing here? Najee has NEVER had a season under 1,000 yards.

RB25 – Raheem Mostert: 21 TDs last season, on a hyper-efficient offense, with back-to-back 1,000-yard+ seasons.

RB27 – Jonathon Brooks: The Panthers traded up in the second round to secure him — the first running back drafted from last year’s class. Insane talent and excels in every area of the field, including as a pass catcher.

Closing Argument

Your Honor, I would like you to take the time to heed my concerns about Zamir White. The Raiders themselves realize they can’t fully rely on White as a three-down back, especially with Alexander Mattison and Dylan Laube, who are both strong pass catchers, in the mix. White’s “workhorse” role in the backfield is far from guaranteed. His fantasy production could take a big hit if he continues to share carries, as we’ve seen in the preseason. With limited pass-catching upside and no draft capital backing him up, he’s a player I’d avoid at his current ADP, and you should too. A mere mortal, if you ask me. I rest my case.