Fantasy Court: The Case Against Curtis Samuel in 2024 (Fantasy Football)

This article is part of the annual Fantasy Court series. Be sure to check out The Case FOR Curtis Samuel by Javier Manzanera for the opposing view.

Opening Statement

In my debut in the Fantasy Courts, I chose to take a case in which I strongly believe. Curtis Samuel has become a repeat offender to my fantasy teams, as both an inconsistent underperformer and one of the lead perpetrators in preventing Jahan Dotson’s breakout. After completing a solid year with the Commanders and joining the best offense of his career in Buffalo, some may call Curtis Samuel a sleeper, a value, or anything in between. Unfortunately, I must inform you the media is feeding you propaganda and these claims are false. I stand here before you today to convince you Curtis Samuel is GUILTY of fraudulent fantasy potential.

Target Share

Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis have departed from Buffalo, creating a large amount of targets for other receivers. Unfortunately for Curtis Samuel, he won’t be a primary beneficiary of this situation. In fact, I project Curtis Samuel to receive the fourth-most targets on the team.

Dalton Kincaid, who happens to be the subject of the first set of Fantasy Court articles, is on his way to becoming one of the next elite fantasy tight ends after being selected in the first round of the 2023 draft. Showcasing his talent and strong connection with Josh Allen last year, Kincaid is sure to be a top target in 2024.

The most recent addition to the Bills’ offense, Keon Coleman, was drafted just outside the first round in the 2024 draft, and he projects to become the team’s primary outside wide receiver. While he may not start the season with a ton of targets, he should certainly end the season as the team’s WR1.

Finally, I believe Khalil Shakir will become a major part of the Bills’ passing offense. In the first 10 weeks of the 2023 season, Shakir steadily climbed in snap percentage, averaging 39.4% per game. Since Ken Dorsey was fired in Week 10 and Joe Brady became the team’s offensive coordinator, this number jumped up to 68.4%. Dorsey has held onto the job, and I’d expect him to continue to favor Shakir this season.

Best QB-WR Duo Success Rates

Allen-Shakir: 71.1%
Purdy-Aiyuk: 69.1%
Garopollo-Meyers: 68.4%
Goff-Raymond: 65.9%
Watson-Cooper: 64.1%
Smith-Lockett: 61.9%
Tagovailoa-Waddle: 61.5%
Stafford-Robinson: 60.5%
Love-Wicks: 60.3%
Stroud-Collins: 59.8%
Goff-St. Brown: 59.8%

— Theo Ash (@TheoAshNFL) February 16, 2024

Shakir was 17th in adjusted yards per route run in 2023 and finds himself as one of the most efficient wide receivers in all of football. His advanced stats should launch him into becoming a highly utilized wide receiver going forward. 

Where does this leave Curtis Samuel? As mentioned before, I think he could be a solid plug-in player as the Bills wait for Keon Coleman to mature into a heavier workload. However, as a whole, Samuel has the lowest potential and slim chances of becoming a top target in this offense. Once Coleman takes over in the back half of the season, Samuel should fall into the WR3 role behind Shakir.

Inconsistency

Curtis Samuel scored a D in the Ballers’ consistency rating, which you can find for every player after purchasing the Ultimate Draft Kit. Though an explosive athlete with a handful of high-scoring weeks, many fantasy owners weren’t able to take advantage due to his inconsistency and likely suffered through some of his bust weeks along the way.

Alternative Options

Currently being drafted in the 11th round of Sleeper drafts, Curtis Samuel doesn’t cost a lot. However, it is important to prioritize drafting players with a high ceiling in the late stages of fantasy drafts because the “safer” options will end up clogging your roster.

I’d much rather draft players like Khalil Shakir, Joshua Palmer, or Chase Brown, who are all going a little bit after Samuel. Each of these players has a clearer path toward becoming a dominant, week-winning asset.

Conclusion

Curtis Samuel is a dynamic athlete with the ability to “boom” on any given week. He may even be used a bit in the ground game, as he has with his previous teams. While I do believe Curtis Samuel will have a solid season in Buffalo thanks to an upgrade at QB and offensive play in general, I just don’t think he will see a consistent role. Without a concrete position or consistent usage in Buffalo’s offense, Curtis Samuel is not worth drafting. There are potential league-winning values in the late stages of 2024 fantasy drafts, and Gabe Davis 2.0 is not one of them.