Familiar Foes: How Have Key Bucs Fared vs. Panthers?

Just like last year, the Bucs have gotten through much of their 2024 season before meeting the division rival Panthers for the first time in a season. In 2023, Tampa Bay matched up with Carolina at home in Week 13 and on the road in Week 18, and it’s a similar schedule this year. Only this time, the Bucs are at Carolina in Week 13 and playing host to Dave Canales and Co. in Week 17.

Tampa Bay comes into this game at 5-6, needing to beat its former offensive coordinator and his new team to earn back-to-back wins for the first time since Weeks 1 and 2. Doing so would also get Todd Bowles’ team back to .500 in the first time in over a month while helping in the playoff push. 

All-time, the Panthers have a 25-22 advantage in 47 meetings with the Bucs, but Tampa Bay has won seven of the last eight contests between the two sides. But how have some of the Bucs’ key players fared against the Panthers over the course of their careers? Let’s break it all down.

Baker Mayfield Has A History Of Winning Ugly vs. Panthers

For Baker Mayfield, who spent part of the 2022 season in Carolina before finishing out the year in Los Angeles, there’s both good and bad news about his history against the Panthers. The good news is that he’s never lost to Carolina, going 3-0 between his time with the Browns and Bucs. But the bad news is that he has yet to really play a great game against this particular NFC South foe. In other words, he has a history of winning ugly in past matchups.

His first game against the Panthers came in 2018 when he was a rookie with the Browns. He was efficient in that game, going 18-of-22 for 238 yards and a touchdown. That’s certainly good, but it was only a 26-20 win and actually marked his best performance of the three.

When he came to the Bucs in 2023, Mayfield continued his winning ways against the Panthers, helping his new team sweep one of his old ones. But both games were ugly. Tampa Bay won the first 21-18 before winning the second 9-0. In the three-point win in Tampa, Mayfield was just 14-of-29 for 202 yards, a touchdown and an interception. That performance was just good enough, and the performance in Week 18 very fortunately didn’t cost the Bucs the game and their third straight NFC South title.

In that 9-0 win, Mayfield was 20-of-32 for 137 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions. He could’ve had a couple (or even a few) interceptions in the game, but Carolina couldn’t take advantage and Tampa Bay’s defense shouldered the burden and pitched a shutout. In his three career wins over Carolina, Mayfield has completed 62.7% of his passes for 577 yards, two touchdowns and an interception.

So, while Mayfield getting to 4-0 against the Panthers in any way possible is the main objective, he’s surely looking to do more on his part to put the Bucs in position to win comfortably at Bank of America Stadium.

Mike Evans Has Been Dominant Against Carolina

In his illustrious 11-year career, Mike Evans has seen the Panthers 19 times. He’s also played the Falcons 19 times (including once this year) and has 20 games against the Saints (including one this year). So, it’s within the context of an even playing field where it’s safe to say that Evans has been more dominant against Carolina than any other NFC South opponent.

While his catch rate is just over 50% (53.4%), he has 102 catches, 1,480 yards and 11 touchdowns in his career against the Panthers. Those 102 catches and 1,480 yards are the most he has against any opponent, and the 11 touchdowns are the second-most he has against any opponent (he has 13 against the Falcons).

Evans has four career 100-yard games and two multi-touchdown games in 19 meetings with the Panthers.

Evans’ best game in the series came on New Year’s Day 2023 when he caught 10 of his 12 targets for 207 yards and three touchdowns, helping the Bucs beat the Panthers and clinch a second straight NFC South title. He had touchdown catches of 63, 57 and 30 yards in that game, with the second of those two keying a fourth-quarter comeback for Tampa Bay.

Last year, Evans split his performances against the Panthers between good and bad. In the meeting in Tampa, he caught seven of his 12 targets for 162 yards and a touchdown (a 75-yarder). But in the 9-0 win at Carolina, he was held to only three catches on eight targets for 22 yards.

Bucs’ Younger Playmakers Have Yet To Really Get Going vs. Panthers

The Bucs would obviously like to have production from other playmakers who aren’t Mike Evans, and given Carolina’s dead-last run stopping defense, Sunday is a big opportunity for Tampa Bay’s backfield to lead the way. Of course, Bucky Irving is set for his first career game with the Panthers, but the other young playmakers on the Buccaneer offense haven’t done a whole lot to write home about in the last few years.

Rachaad White has played Carolina four times in his career and has rushed 56 times for 205 yards (3.7 avg.) and a touchdown in those games. He has also totaled 13 catches on 16 targets for 74 yards (5.7 avg.). Though to be fair to White, he had two solid games against the Panthers when he was a full-time starter in 2023. In the home win, he surpassed 100 total yards, rushing for 84 on 20 carries (4.2 avg.) and adding 22 yards receiving on three catches. He also scored his lone touchdown in that game.

In the away game, White helped the Bucs put the game away late and may have even cost himself a chance at his first 1,000-yard season for the good of the team closing out the game and not having to give the ball back to Carolina. He ran for 75 yards on 19 carries in that 9-0 win, plus he caught all four of his targets for 18 yards. So while White hasn’t broken out against Carolina, last year was a step forward.

Elsewhere on the roster, though, there’s not a lot of production from anyone else on offense. Cade Otton has just eight catches for 111 yards (13.9 avg.) and no touchdowns in four games against the Panthers, and last year he had nothing in the home win and just two catches for 30 yards in the road win.

Perhaps it’ll be some combination of Irving and White that gives Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans the support they need come Sunday, or maybe it’ll be Otton who has his first big game against Carolina.

Lavonte David Makes Plays vs. Panthers

While Vita Vea has only 2.5 sacks over 11 career games against the Panthers, there is a member of the Bucs’ front seven who has shown up and made plays time and again in this yearly NFC South series. That would, of course, be Lavonte David. While his 21 games against Carolina are four fewer than he has against Atlanta and New Orleans, the Panthers are one of the team’s he’s been exceptionally productive against.

David has 174 tackles (106 solo), 6.5 sacks, 16 tackles for loss, nine quarterback hits, an interception, four passes defensed, three forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries over those 21 meetings with Carolina. The 6.5 sacks and three forced fumbles are tied for his most against any team, while his three fumble recoveries are the most he has against a single opponent.

Perhaps the best game of David’s career in this divisional matchup came on January 3, 2016 when he posted 12 tackles (four solo), a sack, a forced fumble and two fumble recoveries. Or maybe it was his performance on New Year’s Day 2017, which saw him rack up six tackles (five solo) and two sacks.

He didn’t have any splash plays in the two contests with the Panthers last year, but he did total 18 tackles (10 solo) between those two games. He’s coming off one of his better games of the 2024 season last Sunday, and he’ll look to keep it going this week when he renews acquaintances with a familiar foe. A splash play could go a long way for Tampa Bay as it looks to beat Carolina and get to 6-6 before coming back home to Raymond James Stadium in Week 14.

Carolina Hasn’t Had An Answer For Antoine Winfield Jr.

The Panthers might have their fair share of nightmares about Antoine Winfield Jr. and what he’s managed to do over the last few years. Winfield only came into the league in 2020, but from the very beginning, he was a menace to Carolina.

In fact, Winfield’s best game against the Panthers might’ve been his first. That came on Sept. 20, 2020, and it was only the second game of the young safety’s career in the NFL. In a 31-17 win, Winfield finished with 11 tackles (eight solo), a sack and a forced fumble. That would really prove to be a sign of things to come both in terms of what the 2020 second-round pick would bring to the Buccaneer defense, as well as what he could do to Carolina.

Over seven matchups with the Panthers, Winfield has 41 tackles (31 solo), 5.0 sacks, six tackles for loss, an interception, three passes defensed, two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery. He has more sacks and tackles for loss against the Panthers than any other team in the NFL, and he’s registered a sack in three straight meetings with Carolina.  As part of that sack streak, he had one in both games against the Panthers last year. In the game at Raymond James Stadium in early December, he also sealed the game with a late interception of Bryce Young.

And it was his play in the season finale that may have won Tampa Bay the game and the division, as he tracked down DJ Chark to force a fumble just before he crossed the goal line. That kept the Panthers off the board and loomed large as the Bucs went on to win 9-0. His sack in that game was perfectly timed, too, as it came on a third down at the Tampa Bay 25-yard line with the Bucs only up 6-0. He dropped Young for a loss of nine, and Matthew Wright went on to miss a 52-yard field goal on the next play.

Don’t be surprised if Winfield has a big part to play in a potential win for the Bucs this Sunday. Tampa Bay’s defense has been a shell of itself for much of this year, but when No. 31 gets going, he can be a one-man game-wrecker. It’s time for that side of him to reemerge as the stretch run heats up.