Expected Fantasy Points: 2024 WR Regression Candidates (Fantasy Football)

Welcome to the second article of a four-part series where we will use the metric Expected Fantasy Points to identify regression candidates in the 2024 season. Last week, we highlighted the most likely regression candidates for the running back position. In this article, we will shift our focus to the wide receivers. 

If you followed our Expected Points series in the DFS pass, you already know that volume and usage matter significantly for fantasy football. Since Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP) is a measure of usage, it highlights the most valuable players for our lineups. However, players rarely match their expected point value as various factors will impact their production on the field. Injuries, play calling, quarterback play, or even offensive line performance could either boost or decrease their efficiency. With that being said, how do we measure efficiency for fantasy football and why does it matter? One metric we can use is Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE). In short, FPOE is the difference between a player’s Expected Fantasy Point value and their actual fantasy production. 

For example, we can break down Justin Jefferson’s production based on his usage and efficiency. We know he finished the season as the WR4 averaging 17.0 half-PPR points per game. The cumulative value of his opportunities equated to 14.9 Expected Fantasy Points. In other words, this represents the value of an average wide receiver with the same number and type of opportunities. The difference between those two values would be his efficiency, as Jefferson scored +2.1 Fantasy Points Over Expected. While that can be partially attributed to Jefferson’s skill and talent, it is also a product of Kirk Cousins’ accuracy and Kevin O’Connell’s play calling.

During the season, Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE) is an unstable metric, as a player’s efficiency can fluctuate weekly. However, it can be useful for identifying wide receivers who are likely to regress in the following season. Historically, since 2013, a significant majority (74%) of wide receivers who played at least eight games experienced regression in their FPOE year over year. This indicates that if a wide receiver performed efficiently in the previous season, their FPOE is likely to decrease in the upcoming season. Conversely, if a wide receiver was inefficient in 2023, their efficiency should improve this season. By highlighting the wide receivers with the highest and lowest FPOE, we can quickly identify potential regression candidates for the upcoming season.

For a more detailed breakdown of my Expected Fantasy Points model and how the metric is calculated, check out my series primer from the 2023 season. 

Recapping the 2023 Season

Charted above are the top 40 wide receivers in half-PPR scoring from last season. Keep in mind that Expected Fantasy Points (on the x-axis) is the more predictive metric. As a result, the most elite wide receivers usually fall on the right quadrants of this chart. The y-axis represents Fantasy Points Over Expected. Wide receivers who appear above the horizontal dotted line are deemed the most efficient and may experience negative regression. Wide receivers who fall below the dotted line have underperformed relative to usage and have the potential for improved efficiency, or positive regression.

Before we dive into our regression candidates, below are a few stats and observations from this past season:

• CeeDee Lamb led all wide receivers in Expected Fantasy Points per game (15.9) in 2023, while also ranking WR4 in Fantasy Points Over Expected (+3.9). Historically, his usage value of 15.9 ranks 18th among all wide receiver seasons since 2013, which is the highest xFP value since Ja’Marr Chase’s 2022 campaign.
• We had four wide receivers at age 29 or older finish within the top 10 in usage value (xFP) – Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, and Stefon Diggs. As discussed in our lifecycle series, elite wide receivers can produce well into their early 30s, which we saw again this past season. However, the decline usually starts at age 31, as only 15% of all top 24 seasons since 2000 have come from wide receivers ages 31 or older. Keep that in mind when drafting Adams, Allen, and Diggs this season.
• On the other end of the spectrum, we had one rookie emerge as a WR1 in usage value. As expected, it was Puka Nacua – the fifth-round pick for the Rams – who finished as the WR9 in Expected Points (13.1). To put his rookie season into perspective, Nacua’s campaign ranks third in xFP among all rookie wide receivers since 2013, ranking just slightly ahead of players like Mike Evans and Garrett Wilson. With very few changes to the Rams’ offense, I fully expect Nacua’s WR1 production to continue this season.
• Speaking of rookies, it may be easy to forget how dominant Tank Dell was before his season-ending injury. He finished the year as the WR15 in half-PPR points per game, leading the Texans in usage value (11.1 xFP) when he was healthy. 
• Amari Cooper was only the WR17 in points per game as the Browns started five different quarterbacks last season. However, in five healthy games with Deshaun “Voldemort” Watson, Cooper’s market share numbers were impressive. With Watson under center, he commanded a 24% target share and 43% air yards share, ranking as the WR12 in half-PPR leagues. If Watson can somehow bounce back after struggling over the last two seasons, Cooper could be a value at his current ADP.
• Jaylen Waddle struggled through multiple injuries, which is partially why he is located in the top left quadrant in my usage chart. If we remove the games in which he lost snaps due to injury, Waddle would rank as the WR18 in points per game (12.5) and as the WR21 in Expected Points (11.2). His production will remain volatile playing behind Tyreek Hill. However, if Hill does eventually hit the age cliff, Waddle has the upside and talent to be a WR1 in Mike McDaniel’s offense.
• The top three offenses in total expected fantasy points at the wide receiver position last season were the Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, and Los Angeles Rams. Two of these teams produced a WR1 for fantasy football, while the Packers were outliers, spreading the ball across multiple players. Surprisingly, it was Christian Watson who led them in Expected Fantasy Points per game (9.9 xFP), ranking WR33 in that metric. On the other hand, the most efficient receiver on a per-target basis was actually Bo Melton, who earned a target on 17.3% of his snaps.
• In 2023, the bottom three teams in total expected fantasy points at the wide receiver position were the Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, and New York Giants. All three teams should experience an improvement in wide receiver usage as they drastically changed their personnel and coaching staff this offseason. However, with Arthur Smith now calling plays for Pittsburgh, we likely need to temper our expectations for George Pickens and the Steelers’ receivers.

Positive Regression Candidates

Seeing Garrett Wilson towards the bottom of this chart feels like deja vu as his efficiency declined in 2023, despite also finishing with negative FPOE in his rookie season. However, that is not entirely Wilson’s fault as Aaron Rodgers’ first season with the Jets was cut extremely short, forcing New York to pivot to Zach Wilson yet again. As a result, Wilson finished the year as the second-most inefficient wide receiver from a fantasy perspective. Despite setting a career-high with an elite 29.8% target share and 13.4 Expected Fantasy Points, he finished nearly 3.6 points BELOW expected. I fully expect a bounce-back campaign for Wilson as Rodgers should be fully healthy to start the year. And barring an injury to either player, Wilson has the potential to be a top-10 option at the wide receiver position.

Jonathan Mingo had one of the most inefficient rookie seasons in recent history. Despite finishing second on the Panthers in target share (17.5%), he only produced 4.2 half-PPR points per game, averaging 3.0 points BELOW his expected usage value (7.2 xFP). Naturally, part of that was driven by Bryce Young’s struggles as Mingo finished the year with one of the lowest catchable target rates at the wide receiver position (55.3% – WR92). With upgrades to their coaching staff and offensive line, I fully expect the entire offense to be much more efficient in 2024. However, a far more significant issue was Mingo’s inability to earn targets at a high rate, averaging only 9.3% targets per snap. With the addition of Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen likely commanding significant volume, Mingo’s opportunities are likely to decrease even more. So while his efficiency should regress to the mean, his expected fantasy points (xFP) are bound to decline, likely operating as the WR3 for the Panthers this upcoming season.

2023 Leaders in Targets per Snap
Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill was earning targets at a ridiculous rate last year

Bo Melton is by far the most surprising WR to make this list pic.twitter.com/rixekjLsEV

— Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE) July 4, 2024

Davante Adams has shown very few signs of slowing down as he continues to earn targets at an elite rate. For context, Adams averaged a target on 18.2% of his snaps in 2023, the third-highest rate of his career. As a result, he finished the year as the WR5 in Expected Fantasy Points (14.7). Despite his elite usage, this past season was one the most inefficient campaigns of his career, averaging 2.08 fantasy points BELOW expected per game. That should not come as a surprise as the Raiders struggled heavily at the quarterback position. Regardless, there are a couple of reasons to be optimistic heading into the 2024 season. Historically, 97% of wide receivers who finished a season with similar FPOE numbers experienced regression the following season. In addition, while Gardner Minshew is not a massive upgrade from either Jimmy Garoppolo or Aidan O’Connell, he at least finished last season with a higher rate of catchable passes and a higher completion percentage over expected. So assuming Adams continues to receive elite volume, he should remain a borderline top-15 wide receiver for fantasy football, even without an elite quarterback.

Marquise Brown saw a decline in both usage and efficiency this past season, playing without Kyler Murray for most of the year. As a result, Brown had the most inefficient season of his career, averaging -2.15 Fantasy Points Over Expected. His efficiency should drastically improve this season as he now finds himself in an even better situation with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. However, the bigger question mark for Brown is his volume. Playing in a crowded offense with Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and Xavier Worthy, Brown could struggle to receive consistent targets, making him a more volatile option every week.

Negative Regression Candidates

Nico Collins had a breakout campaign in 2023, averaging a 22% target share and 28% air yards share in 15 games. Keep in mind that also includes two games on limited snaps as Collins dealt with a calf injury towards the end of the season. If we exclude those matchups, his usage improves even further to a 24% target share and 31% air yards share. However, despite being the WR6 in half-PPR points per game (15.9), Collins profiles as a negative regression candidate. As you can see above, a majority of his production was driven by his efficiency, scoring nearly +4.8 Fantasy Points Over Expected per game. As a result, his usage value equated to 11.1 Expected Points, which only ranked WR21 in that timespan. That leaves plenty of room to regress as EVERY wide receiver to score over +4.0 FPOE since 2013 experienced regression the following season. On average, their efficiency declined by about 3.4 points. In most cases, however, receivers can offset regression by earning more targets. However, in Collins’ situation, that is less likely to happen as the Texans recently acquired Stefon Diggs. With a potential decline in both volume and efficiency, Collins is a riskier prospect at his current ADP.

Deebo Samuel has been one of the most efficient wide receivers in recent history. Part of that is driven by Kyle Shanahan’s play-calling as he often puts his receivers in situations to create in the open field and produce explosive plays. As a result, both Deebo and Brandon Aiyuk finished the 2023 season within the top five in fantasy points over expected. However, as I alluded to above, regression is usually inevitable. We actually saw a similar situation when Samuel was coming off an elite campaign in 2021, producing nearly +6.0 fantasy points over expected. What happened the following year? Samuel’s usage remained mostly unchanged, except he scored significantly fewer touchdowns and was less efficient with the ball in his hands (YAC and YPC). In 2023, Samuel was similarly reliant on touchdowns to produce, with approximately one-third (34%) of his production stemming from finding the end zone. For context, since 2013, that value has been closer to 21% for the average wide receiver. While I do expect his efficiency to decline in 2024, Samuel’s volume (xFP) could improve this upcoming season. With Aiyuk’s contract situation, there is a possibility that he will be traded in the coming months, opening up even more opportunities for Samuel. In that case, we may not see a drastic decline in Samuel’s fantasy production as an improvement in usage could potentially offset any decline in efficiency.

Another player who relied heavily on efficiency to produce was Jayden Reed. Nearly 33% of his fantasy production came from touchdowns, as he averaged +2.6 Fantasy Points Over Expected in 16 games. So while he did finish the season as the WR24 in half-PPR points per game, his usage value ranked significantly lower at WR44 (9.0). In other words, if his efficiency regressed closer to the mean and his volume remained unchanged, Reed would be producing WR4 numbers for fantasy football. Unfortunately, 91% of players who finished a season between 2.0 and 3.0 FPOE regressed the following season, averaging nearly 1.9 points less in efficiency. This means that Reed’s production is likely to decline unless he gets more opportunities in the Packers’ offense. However, considering that Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks are still expected to be heavily involved, it is difficult to see how Reed’s mediocre target share of 17.5% will significantly improve in the upcoming season.

As I mentioned earlier in the article, CeeDee Lamb had a truly elite campaign, finishing as the WR1 in half-PPR points per game (19.9). However, unlike Samuel whose usage ranked outside of the top 20 over the last two seasons, Lamb has now finished twice within the top eight in Expected Fantasy Points. In other words, he is much more reliant on his usage as opposed to efficiency. As a result, while his efficiency (+3.95 FPOE) is likely to regress in 2024, I would be shocked if he did not receive over 150 opportunities again this upcoming season. For context, even if Lamb’s FPOE regressed to zero, he still would have ranked as the WR6 in points per game. And considering Dallas led the league in wide receiver usage (total expected points) last season, I fully expect another WR1 campaign from Lamb in 2024.